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3 cardbrag,
Happy to stand corrected but I expect it would extraordinarily rare, if not kinda unprecedented that a company in this AIM sector with such a small market cap undertook such a share buyback exercise .. And therefore there is no meaningful precedent to benchmark against .. and hence I remain happy stand by my 2p guesstimate below..
This is a highly illiquid stock anywhere sub 1.75 p.. especially in these barbaric market conditions.... and even semi decent volumes of buying could lift it meaningfully.. So, if CB up front committed in Nov or Dec to for eg to 100k gbp buyback per month for 6 months from Jan 24, saying it was readily affordable including having almost no impact on xtr's asset development plans for 2024, that would be a big thing.. also including big publicity he could derive off the back of the uniqueness of such an exercise for such a small cap in metals exploration sector against such a brutal market backdrop too .. etc..
Howezap
These option give the owner e.g. the directors the right to buy the share at a price of 10p, it’s not that the shares vest once the price is over 10p.
Cheers
James
James, the share options to directors and staff were ‘awarded’ to them in early ‘21 with the option to sell ‘from’ 10p
Not required to buy them.
Probably my mistake for referring to as warrants as otherwise they would have been issued to a broker.
With respect
Guy
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/award-of-share-options-m86nqgci5sa5gs0.html
Hi Howezap
You’re obviously entitled to you opinion/theory, I was simply saying that I think it has some holes in it for example that CB would get a million quid if the price hit 10p.
Logically CB is only ever going to make serious money from XTR if he sells the company/sells an asset and takes a dividend. He is in a nice position though as his XTR salary pays for his shares and probably a few beers etc on top of that he can grant himself options etc to further benefit if he can find the golden goose (or copper goose).
Cheers
James
Hi James, when you consider with that early saturation of promo he managed to drive market cap up to £60m. Things could have been a lot different if it were not for Covid and the subsequent economic fall out since. Covid had significantly delayed FB development with its restrictions and port closures that held up the modules being delivered. The economic headwinds since have only increased leaving the resource sector heavily down.
Without any of those headwinds and a plant that would have been producing revenue a potential 12-18 months sooner in a period that analysts in ‘21 were then predicting a bullish market ahead. Can easily see the potential to have continued that push beyond 10p with a lot of the better news available for promo.
I believe there is some validity in my theory certainly earlier on, but that theory i would say in general is more heavily weighted toward what was in that early study when I talk of the ‘perceived disappointment’.
Ultimately, the anticipated bulk low grade tonnages between 0.1 and 0.2%cueq that were deemed pivotal for the viability of the resource is one critical statement in that study.
Howezap
I’m pretty sure these options give the directors the right to buy shares at the exercise price, in this case 10p so at a price of 10p are basically worthless so the SP would need to be significantly above this to be worthwhile to CB etc. So not sure I buy your theory.
Cheers
James
>>is it any wonder why he was super keen on optimism………
Shows there was an ulterior motive behind exaggerating targets and timescales.wouldn’t you for a £1m bonus? Which begs the question again wether those targets that were given were actually then a genuine expectation? With what there is now being more in line with more realistic geological expectations of quality and quantity of BR’s resources and its optimisation which both aspects were all alluded to in the preliminary study prior to any of the phase 1 and 2 drilling and other technical work being input.
So in that respect, maybe it shouldn’t be looked on as though the project has fallen as far short of those targets, but more in line with what could have and has been achieved from the study recommendations so it should be leaving a far lesser degree of disappointment, if any than the amount currently being perceived by shareholders.
Some positive news at least is that all the warrants that were issued along with the last placing in ‘21 will expire 2yrs after the date they were approved at the ‘21 AGM which will be on Tuesday 24th. About 55 million ‘altogether’ with 49m+ @ 8p
What with the incentivised 24,800,000 directors and staff warrants at 10p that CB would still get of those 10m, is it any wonder why he was super keen on optimism using targets and timeframes to continually try to rally the share price up toward the strike prices.
Early on got close, but no cigar! Which is somewhat ironic.
MTMU
curious to know on what basis you believe a buyback of a mere half million would add 2p to the sp. Also whether you can recall a single company ever whose sp benefitted so much from such a modest stimulus.
Unless of course you're teasing us.
If not such a dividend, even a half a million gbp invested in a share buyback scheme in 2024 would add at least 2p to the share price imho..
Especially in the context of it being so extremely affordable versus Manica ongoing revenue .. and still allow him rainbow chase his already chosen rainbows too.
Manica gives so many opportunities to enhance shareholder value that go way outside the box that Mr Bird has been conditioned to think within off the back of years of no such ongoing strong revenue in any of his AIM companies. He just needs to open his mind up.....
(but he won't because his ego is obsessed with the thrill of the rainbow chasing drill for one more chart topper.. 5p a share is boring to CB .. 15p a share may barely excite him... 50p a share would get the old dog boned)
Living on planet hopeful which is why I’m still in this share - but I take your point, pretty unlikely.
If we are generating even 7m net over next 2 years after overheads , I don’t mind investing 2-3m in a smart exploration program in nw Zambia .
Still leaves 3 or 4 m that should be distributed.
My main issue with xtr at the moment is the cryptic mumbojumbo that are our financial statements.
By accident or design ?
Either way I really really don’t like it - the financial reporting is not fit for purpose
A dividend of ANY amount from Bird and his cohorts, let alone £1M? What planet do you live on Cyber? When has Bird ever found it necessary to feed his `loyal ` investors with a dividend?.
Thanks for some interesting posts in reply to Ricks podcast. As this shows, it isn't only the explorers who are feeling the heat:
https://www.mining.com/web/freeport-mcmoran-beats-quarterly-profit-estimates-on-production-boost/
But as pointed out by BH, gold is back at $2000 an ounce and looking strong.
Also to repeat one of the other points from the RR interview in response to bens good post there.
From 8.57 “When price is not indicative of value and the board have gone quiet, what do you do.” …..I BUY
And to add a variant on Bens point that,
>> Right now, most AIM companies do not offer dividends so there is simply no guarantee of a ROI.
The significant variant to this is,
Right now, most AIM natural resource companies do not have sustainable income to underpin their market cap.
What will see xtract excel, once global demand increases, will not necessarily be only from its own level of promotion that it can put out, but the stability and encouragement that its income will offer through its own continued exploration potential compared to its many peers in the sector that have had to park up their projects through that lack in funding, or even worse.
The longer the recession grips, the stronger xtracts position should be when it turns.
As much as everyone was v disappointed that BR fell well short of what was promoted , this current £9.5m market cap is kind of ridiculous.
Some confirmation that we are indeed at 85kg plus per month gold and a clear demonstration of the net element that’s flowing through to xtr would demonstrate what a great entry point there is now and all the way up to 2.5p regardless of BR.
A million quid dividend wouldn’t go amiss either.
Final thoughts before clocking off for the weekend.
Did Colin expect his appearance with the Roasties to boost the SP? What is his strategy for returning shareholder value here?
Ultimately the only thing that will drive this share is news and concrete news that will bring shareholder value.
The current market is full of companies that have a huge sp/value disconnect. Money may be in short supply and investors keen to invest in companies with a clearly positive future. This brings us back to Rick Rule's idea of lifestyle companies.
If you would like an insight into what can happen when one of these overlooked, abandoned companies does release game changing news, have a gander at Tempest Therapeutics. Last week it rose 4000% in one day. That is what can happen should the right news be released. News that provides a guarantee that shareholders will be rewarded for buying in. Right now, most AIM companies do not offer dividends so there is simply no guarantee of a ROI.
I sincerely hope that Colin is getting his ducks in a line. Gold price is now just shy of 2000 USD. He must surely have received an interim report of BR's feasibility.
I have been frustrated by how tedious the wait for any material news has been here. Once Q2 gold is reported and BR report is released, we will be that much closer to finding out if 2024 will be our year. If only to stop us hearing Colin bang on about Kalumbila. Have a good weekend everyone.
Great word.. and not just directed towards my last post here, perhaps .. or at least not all my posts here - and elsewhere - even, Naughtiegordie .. but no worries any which ways :-)
NUGATORY ? had to google it ;)
Fine entertainment, thanks all .. but kinda confusing granted.. still, I think I'm now confident in saying that VulcanBoB is absolutely not the one and only Mr Colin Bird !.. but remain much less confident in saying that Old School Values is not the one and only Mr Colin Bord :-)
Ps: Through all this, I'm remain very confident that Howezap is Howezap
Analytical
I think VB also said that I was you on here !
I filtered him a few months ago as his motivation was clear.
If anyone looks at his posting history they can see that he is a snide and nasty piece of work wanting to spread fear and worry to as many people as possible.
I actually feel a little pity for him now. What a way to spend a life.
Jezzoo --- There can be only one !
No! I am Colin bird
>>The current debt problem and the geopolitical risk tell us that gold is a safe bet in a volatile world.
Sure sums up xtracts particular economic outlook that’s been discussed.
A point worth a shout is in relation to the whole negativity behind having multiple CB companies in the stable. On subject of financing, Andmillsy pointed out from Galileo financials that a loan of 45k was paid to xtr. If this was a bridging loan then there is a good point to be made in favour of being in the position to loan/borrow funds between his various companies in time of need to keep working capital working. It benefits both companies and as a group they can work together. Absolutely nothing unusual in that respect.
Https://oilprice.com/Finance/the-Economy/Rising-Rates-Geopolitical-Tensions-And-Debt-Maturities-Create-Risky-Mix.html
Makes interesting reading. At least gold should do well.
Interesting discussions here.. Howzap is a proper long-term holder here and his bigger picture mid /long-term postings here are helpful and good, thanks
(That Rick Rule interview semi interested me .. we all take different things from it, of course.. my biggest takeaway is that the occasional big wins cover over the plentiful smaller hits from the inevitable dog bets that even good players make in this sector.. because, for one reason or other, there are soooo many small cap exploration names that turn out to be car crashes for shareholders, alas)
Ben 'owell's post below is a -n other - good one.... and the last para is nail on 'ead stuff (imho)
''The frustration with CB is there is no inkling of shareholder value at the moment. No dividend from Manica, no publicly available strategy RE Bushranger and certainly no short to mid term option of selling Zambian assets.''
That's a fair and reasonable shout..... and, ironically, I see big picture as Mr Bird's strength more than small picture ..ouch
( he's very consistent in leaving much room for improvement in smaller picture stuff such as timely RNS feedback eg Assays reporting from down the Bush(Ranger)... and where the buck is q2 manica figures RNS as another eg !!)