Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Would question why the sale price would be at a premium to the share price for an ‘asset’ sale?
It may end up being coincidental as the share price would certainly rise leading up to and then with an ‘eventual’ feasibility study level showing a viable mine with additional JORC resource. It would then typically attract more wealthy individual and institutional investment.
With all shares retained after a ‘hypothetical’ sale, an adjustment would be made to reflect just the remaining assets. Is worth pointing out, there would certainly be a full trading halt leading up to or at the point of an offer/acceptance until after it’s conclusion. Share price volatility in that time would be mad!
Generally accepted an investment case is based on a billion shares being in issue. I expect and hope Colin can finish off where he has failed previously due to the economic climate and then market reaction to those failed targets, to drive the share price up to warrant price for that extra working capital to help pay toward developing assets that has clearly been factored into its planned growth strategy for the business. Without it, leaves a big hole in the treasury particularly if they had taken into account mining rates from Fairbride would be operating within expected levels
Does anyone know how many warrants are left? 50,000,000 (exercisable at 8.5p) expire around the end of October this year. They were voted on at the AGM in 2021, so would have been issued soon after that, they were part of the phase two drilling fund raise.
Even if just those 50,000,000 warrants expire before (hopefully an offer for Bushranger) that's a 5% increase in the value for the remaining 950,000,000 shares (18p from 17.1p in the calcs from a post below), or 15% if all 150,000,000 warrants expire (20p from 17.1). In the unlikely event the share price gets over 8.5p this year, and the 50,000,000 warrants are exercised then another £4 million in working capitol.
Don't think any warrants were issued after the ones above, so unless other warrants are 3yr or 5yr they could have expired or about to, I've no real idea.
Re
Assuming it it accepted the sp is recalculated after buy-out reflecting the value of remining assets.. so may be down to 4 or 5p?
This is a great and very optimistic discussion !
lets try and get back over 2p first :)
Nice to see someone has their feet firmly on the ground. Get a bit fed up with the "kicking the can down the road, would-be millionaires"
The way I see it playing out is the sp starts to rise on anticipation of a buy-out (some time next year).
The buy-out offer is at a premium to sp (20% to 40%)
We will probably be offered a split of cash and discounted shares in the major (I would think)
Assuming it it accepted the sp is recalculated after buy-out reflecting the value of remining assets.. so may be down to 4 or 5p?
This is a great and very optimistic discussion !
lets try and get back over 2p first :)
.
The shares in issue are 856 M, with warrents etc it comes to about 1B. A sale price of 171M, divided by 1B shares is 17.1 p.
As nobody would know the BR sale price the market would be speculating on the price hence the sp would be the speculated BR price plus the African assets. Assuming all goes well the company would issue a special dividiend but the remaing company sp would still incorporate the value of the African assets.
At least, that's the way I see it.
When it gets to that price there will be more shares in issue, I think at the moment it's 100 million = 10p
I don't think anyone knows for sure, as it's one asset rather than the whole company you'd expect the SP to be higher than the sale price
Apologies if my remark offended anyone. It was aimed at (although as just banter still) the doom crew that immediately jumped on the project must be uneconomic so they are trying to polish a turd with going down the pre-concentration route.
I’m happy with my 7.2p tranche, felt was good value at the time. But if anyone believes that without the 2mt in the bag statements the share price will still be around 7p, are delusional in light of the initial resulting fall out from Covid and the world plunging into an economic 5hit storm.
Just bloomin unlucky timing for the many that are sitting on paper losses including myself. I fully understand what I have bought into now and the potential that all the assets have. So I can see past that initial disappointment of what were unrealistic targets not being met.
It’s essentially more about the level of probability that BR will get bought out rather than how big it is. 2mt or not, it doesn’t really matter, for a disseminated low grade porphyry deposit it will still need a feasibility study for any major to take it on. That is my understanding from a geological perspective.
If Bird kept his trap shut in terms of what he 'thinks' he has and stuck to facts there would be no ammunition for the 'doom crew'.........
Before you start berating/belittling people perhaps just think how many were buying in at 7p+ based on Bird's 'fact's to the market.....
A 20% improvement in pre-concentrating is what is looking to be achievable ( CB’s comment at beginning of podcast with roasties. ) with Cb also setting the bar at 50% pre concentrate the doom crew will have a field day if it comes back too far away from those figures. The comparison from another big project he gave was what ‘can’ be achieved.
Will see but I hope cb is not shooting himself in the foot again
Hi LW soz I should have included ‘potential ’ to have the desired effect on model. I agree with you in principal but pre-concentration will give recovery rate after separation and it’s sortability.
But what will any of the results mean considering the first many heard of bulk ore sorting was when Colin announced it comparing to a similar projects 50% reduction in mill feed and a 87% recovery rate after separation. There are many advantages the technology can offer to the project. The full effectiveness of BOS I would guess would be better understood in hard numbers though as without its economic evaluation it may not mean much
That’s all I’m saying.
The rules say there shouldn't be any undue delay in reporting news that could affect the SP.
The results of the pre concentration study definitely come into that category I think.
If the pre-concentration study is having the desired effect on the economics, do you not think that information should be made available to shareholders ?
Any immediate urgency is totally out of the companies hands whilst Optimal conclude the updated conceptual study. This is key decision point for the next steps or direction that the project will take. The priority overall, will still be with reaching that AA option, but is unlikely there will be any progression until the outcome of the study. Considering it may well be that once the pre-concentration study is returned it will go straight to Optimal to conclude the conceptual study without initially releasing it to the market.
So I don’t think it would necessarily be because of it not having the desired effect on the economics.
They have already suggested there will be further drilling to improve on NPV, tonnage etc directed from the interim report. So whatever the outcome now, there will be some further re-jigging of the model anyway to hit the sweet spot.
So, it's three weeks today since Bird told Roast PR that the results of the ore-sorting study would be available in 3/4 weeks - His words: 'it's finger biting nail time'.
With the 'Bird BS factor' I guess we're looking at the end of May or possibly longer if the results are not to his taste, either way not too long to get an idea of how close/far away we are from BR being a viable mine.
Looks like Colins other baby, African Pioneer is going somewhere at least going by the recent RNS. Non equity funding about to drop and looks like he's taking it to producing copper. Wish he'd have the same urgency with this one!
Mining companies announce more than $65 billion worth of deals so far in 2023, highest since 2012
https://theoregongroup.com/insights/mining-companies-announce-more-than-65-billion-worth-of-deals-so-far-in-2023-highest-since-2012/
Long Covid
I identify with that post a lot Banzai, Thanks.
AIM All share Index is my p/f benchmark.. it has gone from 1300 odd in August /Sept 2021 to 770 ish low Oct 2022 .. but it has just not turned back up at all meaningfully so far yet - 820 ish as I type - and this is a big problem in the context of Global Major indices not being off a lot generally versus the AIM capitulation of recent years.
The rule of thumb I've always had is that if major US indices sneeze then AIM catches cold.. or if they catch cold, AIM catches flu.. or flu, AIM pneumonia.... etc.. but AIM caught pneumonia from their cold(s) in 21/22 .. and is still struggling a lot to shrug that serious illness off.. and US global markets, having stayed in at least decent health generally, might soon catch a cold again.. or this time, flu even.... and what that might do to AIM in its very slow recovery from pneumonia state is the big reason I'm not committing more funds to my fairly sickly AIM p/f around now..
Actually, I think he's from Derbyshire.......
I thought Colin was from Yorkshire and not Romania ...........................
Maddogpete
The French are very fond of horsemeat. My wife (French) thinks we were all completely bonkers to get so steamed up about the horsemeat "scandal". It is cheaper and a few canny Romanians saw a way to make a few bucks by filling our cottage pies with their old nags. Nobody noticed any difference in taste . Some boffin stumbled across a mix up in the food chain and we were all up in arms about the so called contamination . All nonsense or horse **** you might say. The rich French eat horsemeat as it is low in fat and tastier than beef so you can be both rich and eat cheavaline.
Me too ! I bought big at 5p, 6p and 7.5p when Colin's 2mt and tie a bow on it BS was at it's height.
Luckily I had a holding to start with in the 1p's and bought a lump recently to get my average down to 3.51p
I'm not buying any more !! ( I think)......
Howezap - love it. Made me laugh. I admit I am still bitter over the 2m/t ramping last year. Worse, I made a very bad top up at over 7p a share on the expectations it would be a quick sell. But - life moves on and I am invested in Colin's other companies. I guess I will either end up rich or eating horse meat.
He's completely wrong. The AIM market was in free fall for a protracted period of time. Its been torturous for pretty much all stocks. I don't know why.
Some commentators have had a guess but they didn't come up with CB as the cause.
Things are more positive.. AFP +25% today, based on strategy and results of CB and team, and most importantly an improving AIM market sentiment. More positives to follow.
Angry and peed off? Only Kwacks knows his emotional state, but he has an opinion for sure.
so is kwadoku wrong angry or a peed off investor or is he factually right ?