The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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Dani - I said something different.
29000 TONNES per month = processing capacity for commercial production.
42000 TONNES per month = nameplate capacity
My expected grade is 1.8 g/t you could assume a higher number if you believe appropriate.
I disagree with using the interviews in this manner as unfortunately imho Colin has not been as clear as he could have been.
Bottom line for me as the statement of truth is the RNS https://xtractresources.com/investors/rns/manica-hard-rock-collaboration-agreement/ and not what Colin said in an interview.
And the RNS statements are illustrated by company statement in this presentation on slide 8 which is pretty much forward revenue and profit guidance
https://xtractresources.com/wp-content/uploads/Xtract-presentation-July-2020.pdf
To get to the cashflow figure stated on slide 8 means operating costs are c$550 per oz. This is way more than the costs of the Xtract team on the ground if you use the 30,000 oz p.a. in the presentation then the annual costs are $16.5M and these costs are deducted before Xtract get their 23%.
James kindly shared a calculation which I think is self explanatory.
1300*94% = 1,222 (assumed POG at date of presentation less 6% production tax)
1,222-550 = 672 (deduct operating costs taken from DFS)
662 * 68% = 457 (net operating profit after tax at 32%)
457 * 30,000 = 13.7m (net operating profit x ounces produced per annum)
13.7m * 23% = 3.15m (net profit with XTR share at 23%)
3.15 * 7 years = 22m pretty much reconciles to the presentation
Clearly there is a significant tail wind to benefit XTR with the POG being close to 50% higher but the mechanics of calculating the XTR share are as above but I would increase the $550 per oz to reflect 3 years of inflation.
I will take 42
(that is LOM or SP ... either will do)
So it's told me the answer is 42 ...
Shame there's no student version (Most companies used to do that back in my uni days) I'd quite like a crack at it...
If anyone wants to 'geek out'. How to design an open pit using the software Optimal use:
https://www.deswik.com/product-detail/deswik-cad/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dS_b6XLw2Xw&ab_channel=SmartMinero
Or alternatively use stevemocals tried and trusted beer mat method of quantifying
Seems a lot of faffing about and overcomplicating a straight forward task tbh.
Couldnt they just ask Steve to do this with his spreadsheet??
He manged to do all that on his kitchen table over a weekend :)
Thanks gixxer, very interesting.
Interesting video here of the process used to map out the theoretical mine development process.
' Optimal Mining are experts in the completion of life-of-mine projects and feasibility studies. We can take a basic geological model and turn it into a fully scheduled, haulage modelled, optimised and rehabilitated mine plan.'
https://www.optimalminingsolutions.com/demos
Optimal Mining is the company XTR are using to carry out the BR mine feasibility studies.
CB said it wouldn't be appropriate for him to comment on the FQM Panama issues, presumably because some of 'his'companies are in partnership with FQM.
Kiwara was bought by FQM when it was having problems in DRC. This is a very old article but I think it quite interesting, in parts.
https://www.crown.co.za/reader/modernmining/2014/January/files/assets/basic-html/page32.html
good to see you expanding the intellectual range of your posts kwakado .
As someone pointed out, these interviews are not meant to be taxing. It is PR and they give the CEOs an open goal.
I always get worried when CB is on the Roast- it means he has nothing to say via RNS so he is trying to ramp other ways.
Kalengwa- he also has with Bezant- got some incredible handheld results then a few months later admitted they were **** when the lab results were nowhere close. But someone certainly made money from the baseless ramp and spike in SP. That should be a warning to anyone who deals with Bird.
Colin Bird’s AIM record (as of Jan 23):
Time he became CEO of BZT- SP 0.5….now 0.08
Time he became CEO of XTR- SP 10...now 1.8
Time he became CEO of Galileo 7.38...now 1.3
There were speculations about Colin Birds financial situation on twitter a few months ago.
Remember he was earning circa 150k as chairman of Jubilee and he could afford to give it up.
Dont worry about him- he isnt going to be homeless. He has several companies that each pay him a salary (even though none of them ever go forwards) and he lives in taxfree UAE and can afford to take prolonged summer vacations in Europe.
All of this funded by you and I
------------
Colin Bird’s AIM record (as of Jan 23):
Time he became CEO of BZT- SP 0.5….now 0.08
Time he became CEO of XTR- SP 10...now 1.8
Time he became CEO of Galileo 7.38...now 1.3
Naughtygordie fair point you make, some clarity would certainly be welcome where this stands if there is a conflict.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/option-agreement-eureka-copper-gold-project-zambia-amhodt6e1ayqxty.html
As i understand it we only had 50% of eureka and we're in bed with kpz, the people who brought us kalengwa, i imagine these could be stumbling blocks, time will tell .
https://audioboom.com/posts/7941767-traders-cafe-with-zak-mir-colin-bird-executive-chairman-xtract-resources
Search audioboom podcasts for xtract 14sept ‘21 if no link again
Andmillsy->> is Eureka a dud?
There is massive potential there, as there was with Kalengwa. The difference though being Eureka is placed to nearby processing plant with the dirt haul road that leads to the mine having been upgraded in Q3’21 to handle heavy vehicles to allow the transport of ore from site. So can certainly rule out any logistical or geographical reasons for not commencing operations.
A Zambia-based contractor would have been contracted for the initial open pit operation. But as yet there is no confirmation that mining has commenced again.
From final results 30th June ‘22….
In Zambia we have identified and modelled a potentially mineable resource at Eureka and are carrying out trial mining. The initial trial mining produced a very high-grade ore, but metallurgical testing proved to be very refractory. Further drilling and test mining has shown this to be a local phenomenon and we intend to commence operations during the 3rd quarter 2022.
From half year report 30th September ‘22
Previously reported drilling by Xtract confirmed continuity of the shallow mineralised zone over about 300m of strike, with pockets of exceptionally high copper grades in a partially oxidised supergene zone. A second, possible stratabound mineral style may also represent a target of interest. (IOCG)
No further exploration was undertaken at Eureka during the period pending consideration of options for possible future development.
So being a significant undertaking, with maybe wanting to streamline the contractual obligations of the mining and exploration activities. is likely the company is just holding back due to limited resources.
The principal activities for the 12 months from last sept to sept’23 that resources have been allocated from recent half year report.
? Operating alluvial gold mining segment - Mozambique
? Mine Development - Mozambique
? Exploration
? Investment and other
For interest, last podcast dedicated to Eureka from back in sept ‘21
The Traders Cafe with Zak Mir / Traders Cafe with Zak Mir: Colin Bird, Executive Chairman, Xtract Resources
billy101203
Posts: 23,392
Price: 1.875
No Opinion
Re:Roast BirdToday 13:38
At least tone hasn’t changed.
Sure he have a date of April/May for AA to make up their minds.
(Sorry about typos on last post)
At least his his time hasn’t changed.
Sure he have a date of April/May for AA to make up their minds.
No SP changing revelations unfortunately, just CB giving his opinion on all sorts of things unrelated to XTR.
Very little info on xtract imho. No new info
Summary
1. FB should do well in 2023 and looking to add on sulphide plant and explore for more oxides
2. POC should do well over next 2 years
3. Year of the small miner
Yes but horse Dani isnt even prepared to be led to water ...it wants to gallop off in the other direction :)
Oh well. We all tried.
I agree A4444 it's optimistic but maybe he'll read the board and recognise these are concerns which need addressing
You can take a horse to water but you can't make it drink...
Good questions Andy, but I doubt the roast boys will be grilling CB. Its a paid for interview and they will be letting him use it as a PR tool. I hope I'm wrong but very much doubt it.
Btw, sterling work by you and James on the other site trying to explain to Dani how our FB arrangement actually works and why her income figures are nonsense !.
As the saying goes....there are none so blind as those who will not see :)