Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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I recall he mentioned 'un-jorq'd' material in his blog, it was 'the fatal flaw' in Steve's calc. But not explicitly the 730.
"or his he including material that couldn't be mentioned in the JORC? "
Didnt Theiceberg (or may be someone else) mention this before and that was the conclusion??
Not 100% sure but that rings a bell.
I know it's a bit hypocritical me quoting words from Bird but was just going through an interview dated 19-12-23:
'In total, let's just get it all in perspective if we can, I used to go on about I reckon were going to get 500e6t, (he was also 'going on' about 1e9) we've now got 730e6t, inferred, under our belt and if you remember some of it, from the Racecource is indicated.
Anyone know where the 730e6t came from? (He mentions it 3 times). Don't recall seeing that in a RNS. - Bird getting his numbers wrong again or his he including material that couldn't be mentioned in the JORC? (I had a conversation with a shareholder some time ago who had had spoke to Bird on the phone, he told me Bird had mentioned ~there's a lot more copper not covered in the 1.3e6t)
If Bird was correct then that's ~1.6e6t[@ .22 cu Eq] so if we could get another ~20% from the extra drilling we'd be knocking on the door of 2e6t and escape from AA.
In a pretty recent podcast I have clear recollection CB mentioning - in a lower tone, as a kinda adjunct to that whatever train of thought, granted - he still has the objective of getting to 2mt of copper in Bushranger, in the end.
So still lots/all to play for imho.
Granted, if it happens, it will have taken much longer the CB - and many others, by extension - had originally hoped for .. or expected.
Good spot Aeris, thanks, apologies for misleading, not intentional.
Colin buying again or the typical spike before an RNS.
Someone's buying a load.
Howezap - the RNS dated 19 April 2021 announcing the fundraising was very explicit that the objective was to reach 2MT of contained copper. (No reference to copper equivalent including gold)
That will be all of us unless Colin delivers something...
"Just 1 share trade gone though
we all know what that means...."
Yes, that somebody's only got 2p to invest.....
Just 1 share trade gone though
we all know what that means....
Apparently :)
CB’s comments in podcasts aside, there are forward looking passages in various RNS showing a clear enough pathway from early on, for exploration to show a viable resource. I don’t doubt though that CB has just used the 2mt as a hook to ramp the project to keep any dilution down and in the hope of reaching that trigger point first, to see what AA wanted to do. Not in one single RNS has it stated any desire to get to 2mt!
I really don’t understand why he was so adamant that 2mt was in the bag though, other than to continually ramp as there were ‘maybe’ uncertainties as to fairbride income forthcoming at that time. Further dilution etc.
12jul 21>> The Phase Two programme is designed primarily to follow up on the results obtained by Anglo American Exploration Australia Pty Ltd ("Anglo") in 2014 and 2015 and to define further the shallower part of the Resource with a view to possible development of a large open pit.
12aug 21 >> We are also very pleased that the New South Wales authorities have indicated their intention to grant renewal of the Racecourse exploration licence to June 2024. This will allow us to undertake all the work necessary to define the conceptual open pit and to identify further deposit extensions, as well as investigating other prospects within the licence area."
Mmmmm so what we gonna be worth less than the already PP 1.75p or 10p?
Thats about right LW, the death by a thousand lashes I was somewhat sceptical though. I agree I was initially swept along as you say but there has always been opposing or conflicting comments made too, in many podcasts and RNS. Like “I’m not stopping short of a billion tonnes” from an early podcast and from way back in ‘21 AGM “We are looking at s couple of small JVs in Zambia that will contribute to the drilling efforts in Oz”. There have been others too that pointed to a much longer journey than implied otherwise. I always felt he was giving us plenty of clues.
When I researched deeper it started to sink in, such as how funding needs to be in place to cover contractual obligations for an exploration phase, how resources need to be defined, delineated and at what data spacing points are required for infilling to reach the next JORC resource upgrade. How a drill programme is planned and executed to maximise the potential of not only budget but also to best reach the next key decision point to understand geologically what needs to come next. It’s a long methodical process.
LittleWing:
I'd agree with that, I'd say what he said coloured my judgement too.
Howezap...
"But like many I allowed myself to get swept along with CB without fully evaluating the bigger picture of just how much work, money and time goes into proving a viable resource"
You like many were told by Colin that there would not be death by a thousand lashes (or whatever exact words he used) and that what he was selling to investors was a quick "tie a bow on it" that wouldn't need to be drilled forever and proved up in the way that would be considered "normal". You were also led to believe that 2m tons was in the bag and that grades and quantity was not an issue. You were swept along because you didn't feel at the time that Colin was being economic with the truth.
Is it not the case where we reach a final proposal and present it to them at whatever the ultimate figure will be. IT'S a case of take it or leave it for the open market. We seem to have difficulty in reaching those figures initially.
We know we have some decent tonnage.
We know it's near surface and easily accessible to cover costs. We know this is a job for majors
We know copper is on the rise
We know demand is on the increase and will only get worse.
We know this is the future.
So what's the issue
Seems we are waiting for the figures summary which has stalled or CB is playing a waiting game ( can he do that?) for reasons known to him and what we can guess at. Share price is down because of confidence and the expectation that we are still a couple of months away before anything material comes out. CB seems confident with this otherwise he would be full of BS which wouldn't bode well with all the other companies he spear heads. This has got to be a case of waiting game.
Docit - We just need AA out of the way, especially if they are not really interested. I have a feeling they won't make it easy for us to escape the 2MT/DtM clauses thou.
He could afford to put a few bob in towards the Ascot drills to hasten things up a bit as well as share buys. Please Colin if you 're reading the boards.
Lets try again
Seems the stars are aligning in the correct direction.
https://www.mining.com/web/tecks-mining-breakup-sets-the-scene-for-copper-takeovers/
CB bought :
£22K jan 23
£70k Aug 21
£57K april 21
£58K feb 21
All in the open market
May be he did believe his own forward guidance :)
The deal is to reach 2 million actual words or I can declare a decision to mime
To be fair to Bird he did buy shares in XTR recently and spent, roughly, the same amount as he did buying JLP
Colin has been spending his personal wealth buying JLP shares. I like JLP but hardly a vote of confidence in the companies he owns.
ps if he tells you that you'll be paid at month end, make sure he also specifies which year with that :-)