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It really was all BS for 2023 time scale, as implied by CB, but it may not be BS for a 2025 timescale...subject to POC !
I think a tier 1 copper asset in a safe country with 2 m/t of copper was worth £60 million. Plus a quick sale promised. Trouble is it was all b/s !.
The difference is, in the past the indication of good news just around the corner was not as significant as 2mt contained copper, tier 1 assest , 10p "and they can stick it" etc etc
Prior to that it was all possibly some good news but not on BR scale and he could replace those smaller failures with other hope of good news with another shiny thing coming soon.
He can't replace the 2mt cont copper etc with anything remotely as significant. So some good news on the African copper deposits wont wont replace the expectation of BR.
Has his BS just got out of control, even for him?
Its time for him to reveal his poker hand. Those 4 aces he implied he held, could be a pair of 2's !
>>I bet he is regretting it all now though.
I get the impression he either couldn't give a feck, taken zero responsibility for his BS, and even tried to gaslight us - Or he has some sort of psychosis....
That strategy worked in the past for him but I think he got over confident in his ability to ride out any back lash and just started loving the false reality he was inventing in those media presentations. Maybe he started believing his own BS. I bet he is regretting it all now though.
"I’m not doubting the effect CB has had with his strategy, but there are other contributing factors"
Yes, there have to be other factors contributing to the fall but where I and I suspect others would disagree with you is the split of those other factors. I would say 95% to 5%, with CB responsible for the 95%. At a very generous take, I'd say only 90% responsible.
As for the use of the word "strategy" , you means CB's strategy of being overly optimistic, obfuscation, be deliberately deceptive, mislead and come out with utter BS in interviews :)
Amazing that that strategy hasnt worked :)
Through Steve’s time he was invested, he regularly responded with L2 data to show how the share price drops were not a reflection of major sell offs or attributed to any evidence of a major swing in sentiment. He was ‘never’ contested on his assessments. Xtract shares without any doubt are traded automatically using algorithmic trading designed to take the emotion out of the process to continually create liquidity. So with minimum selling pressure over buys as we have continually seen and been shown is the case the bid and ask have continually come down.
Yes the driving factor is ultimately supply and demand but the overall drop should not be used to determine that current market cap is absurdly low. We are blinded by the fact that the share price was once at an unrealistic high from the first huge spike as Joe Public and his wife jumped in. ( No offence as I was one of them) placing a market cap of around £60m!! at 7p. Can anyone now honestly say, that ‘was’ a true reflection of asset value back then. No fairbride plant, no resource updates.
I’m not doubting the effect CB has had with his strategy, but there are other contributing factors including the £50B-100B that has been wiped off the value of AIM since Covid.
But let’s not write BR, Kakuyu and fairbride full production levels off just yet. Patience is all we have.
"Where does Colin go now"
He has to deliver. Only way he can do that is by results.
His BS interviews no longer work, well for most they don't.
Agreed that CB should add punchily to his holding here Gixxer...I'm pretty confident he's a very wealthy man too.. so it's somewhat incidental for him to add say another 100k gbp for eg to his holding here soon...(I feel soon more than now might be a better play from his perspective though)
Generally, I'm guessing that it will be more the end of summer ish before he looks to crank the game up here again.. and he'll look to have a few good news items lined up to get out one soon after another, to get this s/p moving up again around then.. and more useful in his mind to add more to his holding around then rather than around now, perhaps
>>Where does Colin go now
He could start by upping his exposure here after all his BS. Say to 10% - He can then feel the pain his BS when the SP drops....
Where does Colin go now with his media interviews ? He got away with misguidance for so long but he has over stepped the mark regarding BR and has been rumbled imho. His public spat with the Stevegate poster shows that he was rattled over the results of the BR drilling. Not sure he has any where to go now tbh.
"The world falling into a financial 5hit storm and Putins antics have been the biggest influence though."
If that is an attempt at explaining why the sp is at such a low level, than I dont agree. POC is not much different to a year or so ago and the sp was 7p just over a year ago and the war had been going for a few months.
By far and away the biggest factor for the sp fall is that reality is not matching CB's expectations. The 12 month decline started happening as the reality of the situation became known and replaced CB's expectations and forward guidance.
This "lets blame other factors" is straight out of CB's play book of deflection and obfuscation and moreover of not taking any responsibility.
Ooh really good question, definitely one for discussion.
Think Colin has managed to drag many along, some kicking and screaming there is no doubt. The forward funding requirements of BR have played a pivotal roll in his previous rhetoric and that financing overhang has been the head wind. The world falling into a financial 5hit storm and Putins antics have been the biggest influence though.
With £4m shortfall (so far) from missing out on the warrants. Could expect a further raise to take their place to get BR to PFS so will need a succession of good news in a new PR drive to minimise dilution.
There is a bigger picture at play that ultimately benefits all share holders, particularly more so the holders with low averages that took those earlier risks before the first hole was drilled.
I’m pressed today for time now unfortunately, as would love to play more bat and ball.
If it did the SP would be 10P
Ok let me ask this then... do you feel where the project is now reflects the early guidance given by Colin to shareholders ?
Hey Lw
Depends on the level of profitability that would determine how desirable it is for it to compare with other similar projects at the same stage. So I would hope it to show economic viability. But should the question be, does it need to be viable at todays price? Conceptual is just the next level that will direct where NPV can be improved on after all.
Ultimately I guess It would need to show now that the project is a viable one, to warrant further investment in improving on that economic potential. But projects can end up having a number of studies ‘until’ a desirable economic model at pre feasibility is achieved for ‘them’ to justify going onto full feasibility.
Howezap... can I ask you a question. Do you believe that BR is a viable project at today's copper price ?
How is value calculated on a resource with so little drilling?
Again referring back to ice comments, that majors only pay for what has JORC with inferred parts of the resource discounted by 50%.
Can’t substantiate if this is a generalised discount, or differs with different mineralisation type. That is that disseminated mineralisation seen with BR is not as predictable as veined or breccias for example.
Interesting that over On Gallileo Resources comments are made that undervalued at 12 million capitalisation but here we now have the same market cap with substantial copper assets and regular gold income so the value here seems out of proportion and would rather hold this stock with potential gains
Allo Ma
Would be unlikely they would drill out Ascot now just to chase 2mt. Better to concentrate on RC open pit with a viable mining study to trigger the AA option.
Luckily BR does have Ascot tho. If RC early payback phase cannot be shown to be desirable enough, for a major to take it on then Ascot could well prove to be the preferred option for the early payback phase.
Ice commented on this scenario
BR project does have that optionality.
>1 billion tonnes with potential of circa 1.6MT CuEq
That also doesn’t include any further resource increase of Ascot until such case as if , or when required or desired for the additional ore.
Dani... who is that comment directed at ???
We are all here to make money which is why some of us with quite large holdings are annoyed. You dont have any reason to take the high ground with us really.
I would hope you can recognise Andrew that my, as you say, “rather optimistic view” is backed up with some logical reasoning behind it that I have offered over the weekend and prior.
We all know that the fundamentals alone will not just simply increase company worth, it is purely news driven with supply and demand of shares that drives up the market cap. If there are no new investors around willing to buy at present that is not going to happen and see any rise sustained.
A polite reminder to all that at the time when BR is ready to approach AA , is likely the resources will have increased to over 1 billion tonnes with potential of circa 1.6MT CuEq after optimisation drilling whilst not including any potential resulting effects of pre-concentration or other resource optimisation.
Good to have opposing views of the LTH’s and us newbies that have only been here two years lol I’m sure we will meet in the middle somewhere when we are grey and old.
Fulmar
You are coming over as an ex shareholder who wants to keep checking that you have made the right decision to sell and move on.
I suspect you are hoping what you are saying is correct as much as anything :)
You may well be proved right...for now !.
Your rather optimistic view could be correct HZ, but having been here many years I can say, with some certainty, CB does not hold back on promoting any form of good news and does not quickly advertise bad news.
With all the incoming CB is getting, and no doubt aware of, you would think it would be highly likely and sensible he threw a bit of Red meat to the shareholders, assuming he could.
"It’s hard to stomach that all assets have fallen short of early expectations "
This is imho is probably what has happened. Mainly because those early expectations by CB, were probably not realistic in time scale, results and output.
1.3mt CUEQ is a big find, but it will take a high POC to trigger interest and a buy. That will eventually happen - but it is what it is