Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Let’s not be sidetracked on the viability of BR to deliver. Yes there may have been some disappointment with the bulk tonnage grade, most projects there will be element of disappointment from initial expectations. But as has been said, the pre-concentration gets those grades to where they need to be as the base line now which will improve as resource optimising continues.
I think the potential viability of a very large open pit mine of significant value is not so much the question, but the getting over the hurdle that is the buy back agreement ( have said it myself so many times)
As we know there is already a Net Smelter Return royalty attached if the project is sold on to third party. I doubt this will be affected if negotiating a get out, with the difficulty in proving the DtM. I would say a royalty payment would come from sale proceeds directly as a percentage.
Could be likely early discussions have taken place and there is an ‘understanding now’ at least. With Colin being able to make the comment that they should be able to take profit from the deal. (In other words)
It’s not that the project is worth only 10-20m $/£ that is absurd, it points to a ‘final’ NPV of being around $100m. I believe it will be valued around 100-200m+ still from anywhere between 4-600m NPV possibly way more with higher copper prices. With Colin not setting expectations too high for now, we could walk away with more than 50% sale proceeds . Xtract do 100% own BR after all and without then having to go through the buy back process and subsequent valuation under Valmin code, there is far more wiggle room to negotiate with a third party anyway that would favour the chunk that xtract finally could receive.
Don’t let the doom crew grind you down it still remains the same, reward will come from any sale with a proven economically viable study and not because of tonnage potential or because it’s now going cheap!
This board is unreadable.
Billy. "As for Manica its producing and market has priced this in"
Don't agree that market has priced manica income in. Market is waiting for actual figures from FB to be confirmed in an RNS (Q2 results?) and then will react.
CB's comments don't work anymore - understandably, so his income figures are taken with a pinch of salt now. Market wants proof in an RNS
tbh I don't have much hope of CB's new acquisitions doing much ( I may be wrong) . They will be low cost though.
I still think Bushranger will deliver value (2p to 5p) when sold, but not until 12 to 18 months though.
FB will probably be the cash cow esp after plant modified. 6-8 years of income from now?
Summary - still plenty of upside from this level (IMHO) but nothing like CB's early predictions in value or time scales. Like Ntm, I will be loading up IF sp drops next week.
AIMHO
Lucky trying to bring the price down so he can buy more shares he's done it before.
Other than Lucky everyone seems to have come away from the AGM with a spring in their step can't believe he didn't speak up a the meeting when he had the chance.
The positive thing is Bushranger is not valued into the price at the moment, if we get just a bit of positive news this will move fast.
Good luck
FFS why do bother posting that rollex. It’s actually puts people off.
Some very good feed back from those attending AGM thanks.
Generally we are 50/50 more tilting to 75/25 on BR going forward. CB now having to pay long game to monetise BR. AA choke hold needs to be freed.
As for Monica its producing and market has priced this in. Any new acquisitions just add to a portfolio. Markets like to see we have more than one iron in the fire.
GL
Jus catching up on some good feedback from sundry posters here who attended AGM .. much appreciated.
Clearly people can't help talking their own book to some degree in their feedback.. but that's the case the World over.
CB taking lots of time to have a cold hard look on whether more money spent on BR drilling is the optimal use of the firms now strong cash generation in remainder of 23 and into early 24 is absolutely the right thing to do imho
And that Manica sulphites processing capability build out should be highest short term priority here in my mind now.
Re 'literary no positive news':
The strong revenue from Manica for at least a few years to come .. and maybe plenty more than a few of years to come after the sulphides plant build out ... is blindingly obviously very positive news in my mind.... and the market cap here is clearly very low versus the revenue/assets
And if this s/p were to take a temporary hit from some here for BR players moving on from xtr.l then I'll take that opportunity to add some more here
IMHO & DYOR
"Fortunately l think the bad news is largely priced in and there is gold revenue."
Agreed Flipper. The company have never been in a better financial position.
There was nothing said at the AGM that was not already known. No surprises.
It looks like those that have sold out are now trying to get the sp down to a lower entry point :)
I find this totally bizarre!
If XTR was CB's only company, maybe; but it isn't.
Ignore TIR (investment company, doing well, NOT!) and all the other directorships except;
AFP, multiple projects
BZT, multiple projects
GLR, multiple projects
KEN, mutiple projects
XTR, multiple projects
he is playing.
Gets bored with one project within one company so goes off to find a new toy to play with, bizarre!
What I would like to see is a level of concentration lasting more than a few hours or days resulting in delivery, something missing to date!
Thanks. The reason l am curious is if its Africa then maybe it could be Zimbabwe. I say that purely on the basis of GLR.
I am in your camp regarding BR. I felt Colin has been hinting that for ages. And the DTM clause looks to be irrelevant if it would mean a court battle. So in the hands of AA.
Fortunately l think the bad news is largely priced in and there is gold revenue. But good luck with your decisions.
Yes, I think manica has lots of gold, but we have 2 to 3.5 years of production (currently). He said by March we will build a sulphide mine (Colins timescale) can't remember how much for but it's in the millions.
I don't see any revenue from manica ever getting to shareholders. It may pay for some drilling in Africa and more at manica, but I see no point in holding these shares until we get another good drill hit elsewhere that spikes the SP.
The new study at BR, I don't expect to be mind blowing and cause much SP reaction.
Any new acquisition will definitely cause a drop in SP.
I thought maybe a great manica revenue quarter might cause a good spike, but even Colin dismissed a good rise in SP from manica revenue.
He then said we may have a drop on a bad quarter.
There is literally no positive news, other than, we won't need to raise to keep the lights on.
I'll check later. I think he said zambia as it's a better jurisdiction than Mozambique, but I may be getting confused with another conversation.
They are both definitely in Africa, he didn't mention another continent.
Lucky - can l ask, regarding the new blue sky projects, did he say Zambia or Africa ?.
Regarding the 4 odd years of initial gold production investors should be cautious if the man on the ground is correcting Colin. As we know Colin is ever the optimist. From memory of the original PFS there were gaps in the drilling . We know from BR how things can turn out. (But l do have longer term confidence in Manica but that's a personal opinion).
Did anyone ask about succession planning ?.
Thanks in advance and to all those who provided updates of the AGM. Would be nice if next time a video link could be provided for those who cannot make it. Now for the Ashes.
It come from Colins mouth.
"We have no Blue Sky"
"Bushranger, disappointing for everyone "
"Hopefully get our money back for BR, and a little more"
"Two new company making projects We are looking at"
Even if we get 10-30 million for in 2 years, will that be given to shareholders as a dividend?....no a chance!!
Manica revenue....6 million dollars=4.67 million pounds. Lets say 4 million after exspenses(optimistic).
32%tax= 2.72M Left
2.72 x 3.5 = £9.45M
Non of which shareholder will see, it will all go on the next treasure hunt.
Don't worry Ma I'm not offended.
You are not the first to have called me Hor
I tend not to post too much here, just pop in now and then. Keep eyes on things and wondering if I'll ever get my 6p back!
Though downtrend has slowed so I have now managed to average down to 2.3p and on the next dip we are in I will buy more at 1.3p - expecting that in 7-10 days or so.
Will give me a final average SP around 2p - which should give me a good chance of getting out of dodge at break evens!
- though I won't be fully selling up, nope. Just taking back out all my averaging down funds and leaving in my now lower SP original investment.
As a Northerner, who is neither a geordie or a mackem I just felt the need to give advice regarding calling everybody from the North East a geordie, it tends not to go down too well. Imagine going up to a Ukrainian and saying oh I can tell from your accent you are Russian.....now I know its completely different situation and I am not making light of their difficulties. Just pointing out that you will end up with a similar reaction!
Good luck all
Go team Colin, managed to get away with it for another year!
That was definitely the question Captainbob. Thanks for clarifying, that is a significant point that will please many that maybe felt the financial demands would put too much strain on the treasury. Although we still could be waiting a further year or two it dies change the dynamics to that of now being able to prioritise Manica without those uncertainties of greater cash flow needed for BR hence giving substance to CB’s comment that priorities will be toward Manica now.
Hi Captain
My understanding was that he wasn’t going to embark on a further drilling campaign to hit 2million tonnes, I don’t believe he expressly stated more/no more drilling but as he said about optimising the model I took this that they will explore different plant sizes, pit shells, ore sorting etc etc and if the model would benefit from more drilling in a particular area they will do it (this part about drilling is me reading between the lines)
Cheers
James
Colin said he did not plan any further drilling at BR, it would need to spent 8m for 15000m to find the 2MT, not want to waste time, further oprimisation by my recollection would be by looking at altwrnative sorting methods?
Sorry how rude of me ma
>>what shall I do.
Buy more lottery tickets!
Genius in making ma, problem solving at early age. At least, we hope was an early age!
This boy bunked his exams coz he got job on a building site. Was back in one day and heard a loud bark from headmaster, OY Shelby boy were you been?
Got a job sir.
He shook my hand and said “good on ya lad, you’ll be able to afford to pay your parents back when they find out you didn’t sit any exams when they get the bill for the missed exam fees!
My reply….. I’m working for my dad, but it’s ok sir I’ll go to the school office now and pay it myself 😂
>>Rolling in field laughing me head off
Making me peckish, might do myself some mushrooms on toast for lunch!
Skool dwopout fwend I get it now 😉
>>none of you said HELLO and WELCOME back after fateful 2359 post to dear Col.
Dani you are a Brer Rabbit. No one doubted for one minute you would not return.
Some may have hoped…….
Smart girl 👍
Ok, so after adding jamesiecakes notes to the others, (thank you James) the only real conflict I can see from notes going foreword are regarding further drilling.
Captainbob >> “it’s looking as though BR will not need more drilling”
James >> “It's also important to note that this won't be the final model and will go through numerous optimisations. “
I did say they will tweak the model until they peak the economic performance, they will no doubt try other pre-concentration, which again to chop and change is not uncommon. Caravel have left out completely their chosen BOS model that was in their scoping study, from their PFS in the hope that technological advances would improve to then incorporate in their DFS.
So the feedback from Bob could be that, no more drilling will be required, leading up to the next update of the economic model due Q3/4, but we could then see, further optimisation drilling being carried out along side the other resource optimisation work stated by James going into ‘24
Which does tally with what we already know and is the most likely as there will be further increases in resource gained from drilling, which will subsequently then be improved on further with the resulting resource optimisation.
Unless, if anyone who attended can either confirm or deny that they are ‘not’ going to be spending any more on drilling and will only use other resource optimisation to improve the economics after the updated model is released?
Naughtygordie
"MB, that E makes all the difference , one is me the other is a slang term for someone from sunderland/newcastle ! ;)"
please do not make the mistake of calling somebody from Sunderland a geordie!
Especially to their face, at best you will get sworn at but it could end up with a punch!
A person from Sunderland is called a mackem
MB, is he a deleuzian academic ?