Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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MB, would you say he resembled the infamous " EL GORDO" ? , maybe he/i couldn't wink because of the botox and just appeared to be staring and trying hard , ;)
Jamesiecakes:
Thank you for the update from the XTR AGM.
I had my views but wanted to see what Mr Bird would say relating to Bushrangers.
From the results, Mr Bush confirms himself that the grade "FELL BIT SHORT."
In terms of the sorting, I had mentioned some time ago that Gina Rinehart has these new state of art sorters that
can extract from the waste and makes her mine even more profitable.
As for Bushrangers, if one looks at Newcrest next door, I mentioned that Ridgeway was found not so easily.
They had tested the down hole and found nothing more ie mineralisation.
They then went back and thought about it and decided to DRILL the BARREN GAP and found HIGH GRADE and that is now history. Cadia is very much lower grade.
I wondered why Mr Bird is not calling the TRIO or one of the Geo's to try to figure out Bushranger as there is
a possibility that there is MORE TO IT GIVEN geophysics stated there are many CLUSTERS at Bushranger per the presentation.
In terms of taking some time to monetise, I was quite aware of that and like ALL projects, that is predicated on
copper prices expected to go higher when demand vs supply becomes very tight [text book]?
As for SKY BLUE ie 2 possible projects, that sounds exciting IF it is in a Tier 1 jurisdiction.
Thank for your kind notes and sharing. Very much appreciated. I have been waiting a long time
to hear what Mr Bird has to say.
General
After the assets were discussed, someone asked XTR priorities, he said stabilise Manica, more of the same in Zambia (I assume small stuff like Kakuyu). Then he started talking about some big acquisition they are looking at (2) both exploration which he feels are potential company makers and offer blue sky and that there is no blue sky in the current portfolio.
I asked about funding for the acquisitions and he went off on a bit of a tangent but my understanding of his answer was that he hopes to do this via cash flows/ deal structure that avoids this. I think CB wants to avoid dilution but he will if he believes that the deal is too good for him to turn down (why I think in hindsight he made clear at the start about the vote in issuing shares etc)
I also asked him about if bushranger doesn't offer blue sky, as above it wasn't a straight answer but my takeaway was that BR is going to take time to monetise and CB is worried that investors will lose interest and hence need something new and sexy. Not sure it's investors or him who wants something new though!
My notes and thoughts from today's AGM, happy to be challenge corrected by other attendees
Vote
CB really emphasised and ensured that everyone in the room understood that the directors have if the vote passes the power to issue shares. His emphasis on this very much made me feel as if a placing is going to happen.
Bushranger
CB very open that he's disappointed with BR, and made the comment that the grade fell a bit short.
There are other Ore sorting technologies which might be better for BR, but the Tomra stuff is good enough to update the economic model with for now.
The updated economic model will focus on the high-grade material in BR and then look to make use of Ore sorting after this high grade is depleted. He mentioned that the pre concentration gets the grade to where it needs to be
He spoke about 2 million tonnes, but to be honest I lost interest at this point...I asked him about the decision to mine (DTM) and he basically said this would be tricky to prove to AA that they have taken the DTM and would likely end in court. As such he intends to negotiate an exit from the AA Claus, e.g. give them a royalty etc. Clearly a little concerning if AA don't play ball.
The study should be available September-October but made the point that he has been let down by forecasts from consultants before. It's also important to note that this won't be the final model and will go through numerous optimisations.
He did make a comment that he's still confident off getting back what's been spent and more, suggesting to me he values BR in the £10-20m range (I think it's safe to say he would snap AAs hands off if they offered 10p)
Manica
Currently in the 65-70kg range (dry season), with grade around 1.7-1.75/ton.
Should be around 500-600k a month profit (USD) at current prices etc
Recent report received gives a mine life of 4 years for the oxides, however CB stated they are using 2/2.5 (guy in the crowd who is working for XTR agreed with 2/2.5). Reason for the difference was the Ore body doesn't behave as you think always.
Plant modification/additional plant - if XTR don't put any capex in they will stick with current agreement e.g. a 23% share, however if they pay a share of capex this share will be increased. He mentioned March 2024 for the next stage decisions/orders etc so I would hope to get an RNS on the details in the next 6 months or so.
Talk about building the new plant on the resource to avoid trucking etc (I only half heard this so happy for others to correct add to this)
As we know from the original MMP deal any exploration will be a 50/50 deal with MMP, however if MMP don’t participate in the drilling this goes to 77% XTR
Kakuyu
Had a bit of production already, very small scale
To get too proper production need a plant, costing around 1.25m which would require 4/5 years of material. They are currently planning which should take 6-8 months so we should hear some news early in the
A4444
Measured post thanks.
I am just wondering, somewhat sarcastically, if anyone got the opportunity to ask the board about their relationship with oldschoolview and/or whether they were spotted having a pint after the meeting ? .
'' nothing material we shareholders were not aware of before or hasn’t already been suggested or implied in previous podcasts or RNS''
Indeed Howzap... not least as there would be an obligation to RNS it ahead of the AGM, if anything new and s/p material was to be talked about at that AGM
>>Still supporting that 30k payrise HZ??
Yes I am gixxer, he may not manage any of the projects directly but the buck stops with him to make the big decisions.
After hearing both camp attendees recollections there is absolutely nothing material we shareholders were not aware of before or hasn’t already been suggested or implied in previous podcasts or RNS.
Thank you Captainbob for your clarity.
‘If’ it’s looking as though BR will not need more drilling we can all but expect then, with copper at 10k/ton where the economics will show it to be ‘extremely profitable’, we could be looking to see IRR in region of 25% (implied by Colin) which would make the project desirable.
Ice suggested at least 20% I think. This is more important than NPV which will be interesting to see a gauge toward the value of project.
Business as usual
Good summary A4444
We were all at the same meeting, people here what they want to here. I wanted 10p plus, I know I'm not getting it. Fool me once.
Good luck the rest of you, but I'm not believing the BS anymore.
Don't worry there's some more projects in Africa to drill over the next 3 years.
Great post, Andrew4444. My experience is also that sometimes you get accounts of the meetings on message boards and you wonder, did we really attend the same meeting? There are a lot of nuances in terms of people behaviour what they say and how they say it, thanks for giving us your summary of the meeting, I feel moderately positive now. I think Manica will now provide a great base to secure the financial future of the Company and we can expect something to come out of BR. Even if it is not 10p it should be multiples of today's price. Thanks again.
''BR, disappointing, but not dead. Its going to need a higher copper price. The new study will come back mid to end sep....(Colins timeline). I think it will be profitable at 4-4.5$LB. Who knows when it will be sold, but I got the impression, Colin was mentioning 24/25 for this copper rise, for that purpose. (I'll go back and check another day).
I'm not expecting a big sale price for BR. Maybe a few pence at most. Let's wait to see the NPV.''
Given the market currently values Bushranger at zero p to minus p, the above is ok by me.
The here for Bushranger brigade(s) must already have processed that Bushranger drilling was, in the round, disappointing ..- eg they've watched the s/p get totally obliterated from 7 odd p ...but they picked a multi trick pony for a reason .. and fortunately Manica is likely now worth somewhere in the 2p to 5p a share range.
As a founder member of that here for Manica brigade, I think much wider respect for this fine asset is now clearly merited.
I hardly ever post on here anymore as the signal to noise ratio is now not great :) But just seen some of the negative feed back from the AGM
All I can say is that my interpretation of what I heard was nothing like what has been said by some.. This is my interpretation but I guess people could see, or hear, things differently:.
1. No need for a raise unless we move for other assets and that was not in any way certain or soon. A "matter of fact "comment. I didn't get the impression we would raise to do more drilling / exploration. as FB income should cover that.
2. circa 4 years of FB income is most likely but to be over cautious 2 years min was stated. Substantial FB income expected.. My understanding is that we will modify the plant to take sulphides starting next year and do so from FB income. IMHO (Not from AGM) FB will be producing income for a number of years from Oxides then sulphides. It will be a real cash generator IMHO
3. The phrase "disappointing" was used re Bushranger but in the context that it hasnt delivered value sooner. Not that it wont deliver value later say 1 to 2 years time. For once, CB was being honest and not BS
4. End September should be when economic study ready.
IMHO there were no surprises at the AGM and nothing has changed.
I too am very surprised at the big sales just before the close..
It could be that one person (Lucky maybe ??) sold out with 2 big 1m sells, then Backtothesoil got spooked and sold another 750K in batches (according to his post he sold 750K.before close) This accounts for nearly all the late sells by just 2 people.. I don't think BTTS was at the meeting so he may have been playing "follow the leader" after seeing those 2 big sells.. If he was at the meeting I doubt he would have sold.imho
My interpretation is that BR is highly likely to be sold but later than CB original time lines and for less than the "10p I'll tell them to stick it " comment. I assume that's where the "disappointing" comment was coming from but CB did not say how much it would be sold for ( less than 10p is my view). FB income / profit should be declared in an RNS in Q2 results in a few weeks..
My view now not AGM. SP should start to rise then and further on Q3 RNS results imho
As I say, no surprises at the AGM imho and nothing which should cause anyone to start big buying or selling. ALL IMHO.
Final thought, we all want CB to stop the BS and be honest and give reasonable expectations, but when he does that - he gets slaughtered !
GLA
See you again in another few months after Q3 results :) I suspect anyone who sold today may be regretting that decision by then :).
Ignore that, just re-read. Your opion is 100m-200m.
I hope so, but I won't be holding all my shares in the wait for that.
Sorry Bob, come back to ask....where Colin said 100m to 200m sale price. This wasn't discussed.
Private chat I assume?
G-600 DON'T HOLD BACK!!!
Tell him what you really think of him.................
We can look forward to 2nd qtr results within next couple of weeks.
He certainly looks to be looking at low cost entry projects in Zambia, probably 2 from my reckoning, saying should be gradual cost entry, within income.
Rainy season was mentioned, though it will not stop things suggestion was we could see as low as 300k in some months but generally 5-6M per year. Plus other income from satellite ops, already in process, Alluvials all but done.
There will be more drilling in Zambia, to define pit and plant requirements, agaim costs should be workable within income.
Back to BR, There was optomism that the pre sorting will be enough to make economics work, and of copper geys sustainably above 10K /Ton it will be extremely profitable, no further drilling required, patience required, I figure 100-200m target price for sale, by fact many are at 4-5p as an average, not blue sky, (>10×) which he seems to think will materialise, from Zambia.....
MB, i rest my case , illegible ! ;) ps , who is cisco ? google said whitefish !?
Me thinks maybe a raise during/after a BR sale which might be later this year and sooner than we expect. Just trying to be cheerful folks. What do you think Ma. Its not impossible is it.
My final conclusion from today, as I'm about to relax for the weekend.
BR, disappointing, but not dead. Its going to need a higher copper price. The new study will come back mid to end sep....(Colins timeline). I think it will be profitable at 4-4.5$LB. Who knows when it will be sold, but I got the impression, Colin was mentioning 24/25 for this copper rise, for that purpose. (I'll go back and check another day).
I'm not expecting a big sale price for BR. Maybe a few pence at most. Let's wait to see the NPV.
Manica will produce between $450k to $800k a month. A few different numbers were thrown around lol. Doesn't mater, non we end up in shareholders pockets. It's going on future pie in the sky, and the boards pockets.
He's looking at two multi bagger projects in Africa, that could be company makers.....they will likely raise for these.
So, I'll buy back in once the new projects been bought and the share price drops to the placing price. Hopefully we will drill, hit massive mineralization and this time I will sell the lot.....before the assays come back.
Learn from your mistakes!!
Littlewing, good for you, you have a plan ,that's exactly what i would do if i felt the same level of resentment that you do . Rather that than waste my time constantly regurgitating that negativity with the rest of the "grievance collectors" on here , i would do something constructive , life's to short . At the moment i don't feel like that, but rest assured if i ever do , i'll be right behind you ! .
Ohh yeah, and Colin brought up the rains at manica lol there coming soon lmao 🤣
LW why don't you post some details from the recording then? what was actually said, people who couldn't be there could make their own judgement on it.
Ma I was really impressed with the knowledge you have and the questions you asked today, I would not have put the lady there today with some of the comments you put on here you are more intelligent than that, (drugs don't work) hope you have a safe journey home 💙
The writing was on the wall with that OSV tool turning up telling me Colin and Co have little regard for shareholders.
MB, to be fair ,if you paid a bit of attention to what you do with your E's, your posts might be a bit more legible ! ;)