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I did read somewhere that shenanigans (e.g. short attacks) are timed to coincide with genuine news – to try and mask them. Don’t know how true it is, but it fits.
30% drop seems a bit much, so I just bought some. Hopefully, we're somewhere near the bottom - lol!
I can never understand results like this - where the financials show profit and a growth vs previous year, yet the share price drops....
What is this? Results read ok but the share price is tanking -24% as I write.
I think that the thing which will hold Naked Wine back is the cost of living crisis. It sells a lot of boxes of wines to restaurants and that will be one thing which families cut back on. That and domestic wine consumption. You would probably fare better if you looked at a fall in the share price.
Naked buying lots of product to have in hand before product costs started to rise was a good decision. Zero debt, cash in the back, and a loyal customer base.
This looks set to return back upwards as home drinks are still drinking the vino en mass
Moving up the daily risers
I'll raise a glass to that :-)
Trading volume 200k and its not even 10am. Lots of buys coming in, great profitable company and can see us above £4 today. GLA
Excellent update
The market clearly likes the update - might hit £4 today at this rate.
I think this is now due a recovery.
Baillie Gifford just added at this ludicrously low price. I would follow suit if I had any funds !!
Shearclass you say "I think their business model is very good, however what I don't like about them is their comms style. I agree about a lack of transparency in their marketing practices, if they changed tack to focus on supporting the wine industry instead of how cheap your first 6 bottles of wine are then I think they would do a lot better with retention. Less new customer spend and higher retention of the ones that do sign up, but a slower growth rate."
Agreed. In the States I would shift tack to more emphasis on "do your bit to support junior up and coming domestic USA wine growers and be the first into some great wines" . I would enjoy marketing USA wines v French.
Yes, sorry moorlaner, Park Foods it was. Peter Johnson & Co. I'm sure, as you say, that Naked Wines won't diversify. I won't be investing though, based on today's update.
Krusty Were you referring to Park Foods?? They lost their way because they deviated from their previous very successful business model eg into door step lending. Naked are focussed and I dont see them needing to diversify.
Thanks for the feedback guys, it's always good to get a perspective from customers and other investors. Sounds like I need to take another look & do a bit more research before jumping to conclusions. GLA
moorlaner, yes this reminds me of the Christmas hamper model too. Ask customers of Park Cakes, who lost all their money when it went belly up.
The outlook in my opinion is very good. They get their customer cash up front is just the starter. Also it reminds me of the Christmas hamper model, save all year and get a case of wine. Wine quality is wide ranging and caters for all tastes. Finally their wine rating system is driven by the actual consumers and not by manipulation. So when 2or 3 hundred recommend a wine you know its a winner. Yes I am a customer and a shareholder. !!
A healthy bounce back this afternoon. Was 530p a few hours ago but now 575p and rising.
@Krusty - I buy from Naked as well as Virgin, and I have been pleasantly surprised by what Naked have to offer.
One of the things I like about Naked is their App - it allows you to rate the wine you have recently bought, rather than trying to give it a rating a couple of days later when you can't really recall how it tasted. Maybe a gimmick to some, but for me it helps me to choose similar wines on my next order.
The difference between this & the wine society is that Naked support new winemakers in getting started, rather than only buying wine from existing suppliers. The purpose of signing up as an 'Angel' and subscribing £25 per month is to support their strategy of enabling new producers to start up or expand, the £25 goes onto your account as credit and then when you want to buy something you just use the cash in your account. If you want the cash back then you get a refund, so it's not as if they are taking a direct debit from you...
I think their business model is very good, however what I don't like about them is their comms style. I agree about a lack of transparency in their marketing practices, if they changed tack to focus on supporting the wine industry instead of how cheap your first 6 bottles of wine are then I think they would do a lot better with retention. Less new customer spend and higher retention of the ones that do sign up, but a slower growth rate.
Bottom line is that the repeat customer cohort is very profitable, standstill EBITDA is £37m per annum and they have a very solid balance sheet. I'll listen in to the call at 2pm, my gut feeling is this will go lower in the next 6 months / until they show incremental growth on top of the pandemic numbers.
You can't open a letter these days without a flyer from Naked Wines dropping out. It's the usual "discount" off the first delivery followed by monthly payments for who knows what? I want to know what I'm paying for, so I avoid duff vintages of wines I won't enjoy. There's just not enough transparency for me, personally, in their model. As I say, others may see it differently. Why would you buy from Naked as opposed to, say, The Wine Society? Or Majestic even, accepting their joint history?
What’s lousy about the business model?
Lousy business model, gimmicky approach to customers and now nowhere left to hide. Even American wine buyers can't be taken in indefinitely. All IMHO of course, others may see it differently.