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Debt providers rarely provide stock finance facilities on a stand alone basis. There is no way I see that they are funding this at more than 50p of cost, 20-35p for a non perishable , easily saleable product at best on a stand alone basis.
Anyway everyone has their views and opinions pending facts. Good luck to all ????
Other on line retailers have a Share price multiples of NAV, for example HOTC we’re recently x10… and despite its SP cliff fall from £5 to £1.40 it is still x4 Nav.
I Agree a lot of companies have a current SP under NAV, but with almost a £ $ parity some will be a takeover target.
I regularly drive past the Wine society, an online retailer and they are currently doubling the size of warehouse capacity.
If this dips into the 70s I’ll take a few.
The stock is wine, at cost. If they have to sell to wholesale then they’ll possibly take a small haircut, but it’s crazy to say it’s 20p in the £. Naked’s gross margin is better than many other producers, so I’d expect them to get 90p+ for any stock they have to sell wholesale. The wine market is pretty efficient and shelf life isn’t particularly short. The valuation here is insane in that context.
No chance in my view. £1 NAV, the majority of that value is stock. Stock is worth nothing unless you sell it, to sell it you need infrastructure, staff, distribution, outlets , marketing and pay away commission. That stock is at best 20p in the pound at value. Further that stock is now subject to some financing from their debt facility.
Further again they are losing money, so youll need to find that.
NAV is £1 and share price in the 80s….? If I had spare cash I’d buy- this has to be a takeover price?
More like two cases
Just over 5% of stock being shorted. But it hasent really increased much over the last month.
Other big factors involved here.
"At one point, they need to close and the price will tick up."
I don't think shorters need to close any more than longs do. It's more expensive to run a margined long position than a short position and, with interest rates increasing, shorters may actually start receiving daily interest on short positions!
I think there's probably worse to come and a heavily discounted rescue fundraise is one the horizon. Shorters will have seen this coming for a long time. If nothing else, their lengthy Going Concern statement in June should have got alarm bells ringing, plus the toing and froing of directors. The last para reads
"On this basis the Board believes it is appropriate to prepare the financial statements on a going concern basis. However, this material uncertainty may cast significant doubt on the Group's ability to continue as a going concern and therefore to realise its assets and discharge its liabilities in the normal course of business.
Why so many small trades, shorting force in place to drive the price down? At one point, they need to close and the price will tick up.
It's most unfortunate the way the economy is affecting some retail stocks, folk just stop spending so much.
Maybe food producer for airways etc. Bakkavor is a good recovery buy with their 2.77p dividend going ex this Friday 16th. They have recently posted strong results.
95p buy limit lifted 10.36am .
Bought back the sale on 22/3/19 @ 287p and the 26/1/18 @ 481p .
Thank God I sold back then , does not always go that way .
More often sell to soon .
Anyway enough from me, the rns got me riled.
Good luck all
Also re your comment on why he left. I tend to agree, in my experience it relates to disagreement. This can definitely occur where a Ceo is a cfo and strong willed.
Thanks. I guess the issue now is no one wants to buy until results day, except shorts closing for profits perhaps.
For a buyout the value of the company must be the brand name and the contact lists - ie assets vs a company, but I have no educated view or dd on this. I do see this going much lower as per thg and cine etc - just because it'll be in the trap of sellers pre results given that rns
I think he means so that Punch Card can trade, not Pratham. Still that implication goes both ways, buy or sell.
The resignation is weird. It makes me think either there was a big disagreement on strategy (unlikely given how long Punch Card have been involved) or some form of sale of the company that means Punch Card can’t be inside. If it was that, you’d expect at least some comment though.
As I say, odd.
There is no way he left a position of a month to do that. That is an amazing thought.
He works for a 10% shareholder. He's not giving up his career, Carry or similar for trading this. Blimey.
Just dipped below a pound. Thats some drop
Probably get rid of all those ridculous vouchers, offer the wine at a competitive price for all.
I have used them for many years and love the wine. But maybe like gin clubs it is one of the first things people cancel.
Board member was a non-exec and works for an investment company, so he was not allowed to trade in Naked Wine shares due to insider restrictions. So perhaps he has seen how well this company can do and wants out so that he can trade in them.
The new board member resigned already / maybe a month in role.
The new rns post hours (very odd), seems like a vailed profit warning and covenant compliance risk.
They basically need a plan to show better profitability ASAP , which sounds very dire . Further the method of update and timings adds to something being wrong here
Yet another massive fall this morning despite no news. What is going wrong?
I think the issue here is the cash flow, ebit was just about zero before the inflation in logistics and wine costs . Management has not updated on any hedging of costs unlike other companies. As sales are flat (see rns ) working capital should be ok, and with the new stocking facility any growth will be partly funded, however with the huge increase in costs and without growth it is very very hard to back this company. The cash on balance sheet may last 6 months if they cut all costs and expansion, but that's a tall ask. Shareholder junior on board stinks of close monitoring too. All imo but this is a very hard share to buy or hold right now...
AIM 100 down nearly 3% today, so of course Naked drops over 10%!
Short positions have slightly increased over past 2 months but the SP, as in many other retailers seem to continue dropping with frankly no end in sight.
Still like this company and bought a new case today, including 2 'free' bottles. I like the fact it gives access (and supports) small growers you can't normally find on supermarket shelves. I don't mean that in an elitist way; I'm not a wine afficionado but have appreciated the difference between a £5 and £10 bottle, even with my Covid affected taste/smell.
Once the recssion finishes and markets generally climb again, I would look to have a punt here if the charts look good and barring any bad news about the company.
It’s a bit strange. I’m an angel. Have well over £100 in the pot. But I ordered from laithwaites.
The wines from laithwaites are perceived as better at a lower cost and Santander have a cash back offer. This made the decision easy to make despite the credit.
I want love naked wines but I am not sure I do anymore.