Touchstone Exploration Share Chat (TXP)

So it went down on the LoL offer, people said it was because of the fear that TXP might increase their offer. Well they confirmed they would not be increasing their offer and it goes down again!

Any idea's?

Absolutely correct (and obvious) decision not to increase trin offer. As the release reminds us there's significant share price impacting news, If the new wells come online as anticipated we should enjoy shareprice increase and, as a corollary an increase in offer for trin. I think more pertinent is point then is whether we should then let our original offer lapse....before making e

a less a generous offer! Trin directors did it to us, our directors should look after directors their shareholders and do the same!

I guess back to the pre-gazumping attempt level, when the fear of a new, higher TXP bid (now seemingly quashed) arose...

Aligator, why should it recover back towards the pre-bid price? The offer is still on the table. So... maybe towards the level following the bid.

Supersport, The BoD have a fiduciary responsibility to the shareholders to protect their interests. Failure to do so would expose the directors to legal charges and penalties. For that reason, no director of any company would leave the outcome of such a situation solely in the hands of its third party lawyers, hence why I am sure the BoD are intensively involved in this situation.

Aligator I cannot see it taking up the the time of the BoD.

The Legal process will be in the hands of the Lawyers to prevent Litigation or so .

Be interesting to see what the sp does today. In theory it should recover back towards the pre-bid price.

Good news in some respects but this conundrum must be taking up a lot of board time and TXP money.

TXP bappears to hold the upper hand per the following paragraph in the RNS:

"Touchstone notes that the terms of the Irrevocable Undertakings oblige those Trinity Shareholders and Trinity Directors who gave Irrevocable Undertakings to vote against the recommended offer by Lease Operators Limited for the entire issued and to be issued share capital of Trinity (the "Lease Operators Offer"), which is intended to be implemented by way of a Court-sanctioned scheme of arrangement pursuant to Part 26 of the Companies Act (the "Lease Operators Scheme"). As long as the Irrevocable Undertakings remain binding, the statutory majorities required for shareholder approval of the Lease Operators Scheme would not be capable of being met and the Lease Operators Scheme would not, therefore, be capable of becoming effective."

Given that it is effectively only TXP who can cancel the Irrevocable Undertakings, this bid does appear as if it could succeed. That said, should the Trinity shareholders and directors who signed these undertakings take this to court, it could become messy, drawn out and costly.

Yes, fear that we would increase the offer was one of the main blocks on SP upwards movement for the last month or so. Onwards and upwards! PB also took the opportunity to remind all of the upcoming expected positive news flow...

Good news indeed. Those amateurs at Trinity now need to cave in and do what they signed up to do.

PB is not increasing the offer ..

Kestas, I think you need to look at Q4 2023 as a guide to the amount of money that will be thrown off in Q4 this year. There will be 2 x new wells coming online in early October generating incremental production on a higher base than last year. Even with decline rates the cash being generated will be the highest ever in Q4, and then Q1 2025 will push even higher with another 2 x Casc wells coming online. This of course depends on Casc 2 & 3 being as productive as our first 2 x Casc wells. Most believe they will be better, so perhaps look at the Q4 sp last year (50-60p range) to get an idea of where we'll be at year end (all going according to plan).

If they hit forecasts, as still guiding, the sp will be in the 40-50p range for certain in October. Providing they are drilling the next two Casc wells in Q4 we should end the year in the 50's. This of course depends on execution and hitting forecasts. I'm not even thinking of selling until we hit the high 40's. SP will start climbing in 3 weeks. AIM lemmings love to leave things to the last minute. GLA

... closed @0.58 CAD in Canada = 32.75p

Traded at 0.6 at some point. I wonder if UK wakes up - maybe we're in one of the periods where Canada pulls ahead and UK is dragging and silent. When UK is leading, it's certainly not silent ;)

Kestas, Cash from operating activities 3,383.

Expanding production & drilling to fill is investment in future cashflow.

Of course, things in the future do only tend to be possible, hence why I said that production more aligned would be the best for all :-)

1. No fact.

2. Possible production are only possible... And no cash flow this quarter.

Think it is driven by 2 things Kestas, 1) failure to plan for production level declines conservatively and 2) the belief that the TRIN deal is distracting management from delivering better numbers for not a lot of benefit...

Luckily by the end of Sept we should have the 2 new wells online and if their productions levels are aligned with expectations we should see the stock reprice to a more sensible level, just my 2c's worth :-)

Question.

Last year 4 quarter... Profits from production 7.9 mln

1 quarter 3.9 mln.... Dropped price till 28.5 p

2 quarter -2.8 mln...

So min price higher than with bigger profit... ?

Think a bit..

PB's "wall of cash" comment of the past was not his finest moment considering Royston was pushed aside, the Sp and PB has payed a heavy price for this.

PB however has changed his ways where in fact he seems slightly pensive keeping his cards closer to his chest for now.

The Aquistion for Trinty I'm in the camp of believing this is a good deal ,an cannot be accountable for LOL gazumping

Christmas were be at 85p as a fun guess from me.

For the record, there is no other shareholder who hopes more than me that tidd83 or John2727 are proven correct in the next 5 months or so. However, I cannot help but think that the company has been the architect of its own problems over the past few years. Courtesy of PB's historic comments about massive reservoirs and walls of cash, just about every positive RNS since then has resulted in the sp going backwards. From the heady days of 176p in early 2021, the sp drifted steadily down to ca 40p, despite all the news about Cascadura coming on stream, new licence awards and new infrastructure. And then, in its wisdom the TXP board decided to make a bid for Trinity, resulting in the sp slipping even further to below 30p as another bidder emerged. Yes, the company has issued naughty boy letters to Trinity shareholders but the reality is that it is now bogged down in a situation which is deflecting management time and costing money.

As John2727 notes, the NPV of its reserves are probably at least twice its market cap if not more which would suggest that a rerate is likely. However, this has been stated repeatedly during the past year or so without any hint of substantive sp recovery.

We’re talking TXP here so allowing for all sorts of drama and trinity nonsense then I’m happy to stand by my 63p! But once and if market finally prices in out 2P’s by hopefully year end then definitely, I’m with you on a quid come year end. 3 years ago we were touching 1:80 so best stay well conservative until numbers are known

John, just to be clear even at a conservative 20mmcfd per well as per your post (80mmcfd total) that alone is closer to a 200% increase on todays existing production excluding all else.

The SP does not currently reflect current value however with the wells at Cas B and C coming on, I would expect to see the value north of £1 as opposed to a lowly 63p

With TXP currently trading around 31.50p and a market cap of approximately £71.43 million, the upcoming months could be pivotal. TXP is set to bring an additional a guided (conservative) 80 million cubic feet (Mcf) per day of gas production online through four new wells, expected by January 2025. This potential doubling of production could lead to doubling to around £142.86 million, which could translate to a share price of approximately 63p.

However, this estimate primarily focuses on the immediate impact of increased production. It's crucial to also consider the confirmed 2P reserves, which include not only crude oil and natural gas but also natural gas liquids (NGL). These reserves represent the economically recoverable quantities that TXP has identified in its assets.

The net present value (NPV) of these reserves adds substantial long-term value to the company. If the market starts to fully value these 2P reserves, including the NGL, TXP’s share price could rise way beyond the 63p estimate, reflecting both the immediate production increases and the longer-term potential from its significant reserve base.

The combination of increased production and the inherent value of 2P reserves, including NGL, positions TXP for a potential re-rating in the market. While the actual share price will depend on various factors, including execution and broader market conditions, the upside potential appears very strong.

Fully expecting us to slowly climb over the next month. Providing there are no nasty surprises I think we'll be in the mid to high 30's before news on hook-up. If initial flow rates are as expected or better then we'll be in the low to mid 40's. Then it's all about execution and delivery of the next 2 wells. By end January with hook-up we're back to the 50's. TRIN makes no difference to this equation.

Let's not go back to a horizontal well discussion. The complex geometry makes that very unlikely. There are faults and folds and duplications. They may do deviated wells in certain places where that might be favorable. But true horizontals work best where there are benches of discrete pay extending horizontally over long distances. Sometimes hundreds of miles like the Bakken shale saucer. Best way in Trinidad to expose well bore to the reservoir is vertical wells or at most deviated wells to follow a structure. We get into this discussion maybe once a year. Answer is always the same. Xavier has even weighed in. Everybody has weighed in.