Member Info for tidd83

John, just to be clear even at a conservative 20mmcfd per well as per your post (80mmcfd total) that alone is closer to a 200% increase on todays existing production excluding all else.

The SP does not currently reflect current value however with the wells at Cas B and C coming on, I would expect to see the value north of £1 as opposed to a lowly 63p

With the conclusion of the TRIN acquisition and Cas 2 and 3 drilled and due to come on stream shortly TXP could close out the year with production of circa 17k boepd.

With a portfolio of other targets and an enormous resource rich acreage position (the biggest onshore player) this has the potential to double again.

If one of the Suriname lookalike Cretaceous plays were to come in then all bets are off as the SP could go absolutely bananas.

Positioning now ahead of a news rich period with such a discount applied due to the recent news lull is a gift horse.

Charuma and Cipero formally awarded to TXP, huge acreage position on top of what they already hold.

31st July is the court case to conclude the acquisition. All other approvals appear to be in place..

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TXP/update-on-regulatory-conditions-zkx6l34myfx9a11.html

Given the amount of cash being thrown off from Cas alone excluding all else your estimate is extremely cheap.

The shares should and could effectively re-rate well north of there. Let’s see what materialises.

The recent sell down has produced an enormous opportunity at discount.

The combination of TRIN and TXP has produced a silent period which typically results in loose hands selling out from boredom.

With shareholder approval and the majority of approvals in place I would like to assume the final dotting of I’s and crossing of T’s is a formality.

News from Cas 2 and Cas 3 due to come online shortly, news from two newly producing wells from Coora and a raft of news around the plans post acquisition including license awards will be most welcome.

TXP has built the foundations of the next step of a major player with the acreage to boot all self funded with cash in bank and additional production/cash coming in as part of the recent acquisition.

Game on.

The work as Cas is currently on track, pipelines, plant upgrades, long lead items ordered and in some cases shown to be in transit. Two well already successfully drilled with a clearing of Pad B already in the mix.

Not sure how they aren’t doing what they said they would?

Instant cash and circa 3000bopd of additional production coupled with a huge tax buffer to exploit.

Not sure what your reading unless your confused with phased IV wells?

The presentation confirms 2024 for Jotun uplifts.

GGG, currently 2 wells producing at Cas from Sheets 3 and 4 respectively. Cas (Deep) is suboptimal due to skin damage when attempting to control the well at depth.

Even with this configuration Cas is producing around 5000bopd gross as of April 24.

Cas 2 and Cas 3 are drilled as producers and WL logs complete show pay the same if not better as Cas1. Both wells will produce from both sheets 3 and 4 combined so the production profile should theoretically be much higher.

Cas 4 is a potential in the mix, rumours are this will also be drilled. With 4 optimal wells even even after full modelled decline of 20mmcfd each that would be 14k boepd without all other assets on top and AFTER peak production tails off.

The price at these levels is absurd, the company are throwing off cash at current production levels. CO1 testing underway at two wells and two successful development wells at Cas ready and waiting for tie in. I’ve added.

In Norway, Kistos' share of cash capital expenditure was €77 million, which was primarily spent on drilling for the Balder Future project, refurbishment costs on the Jotun FPSO and associated subsea facilities. Capital expenditure in Norway is relievable at an effective rate of 78%, with any tax losses generated during the year creating a tax credit that is receivable as a cash tax rebate the following December. The receivable in respect of 2023 Norwegian tax losses (primarily generated by capital expenditure) is anticipated to be approximately €80 million, to be received in December 2024.

Due to the significant capital expenditure being incurred on the Balder Future project, tax losses have been generated in Norway. Unlike the UK and Dutch tax regimes, whereby tax losses are carried forward and only offset against any future taxable profits, tax losses in Norway result in cash tax repayments. After receiving NOK 857 million in December 2023, Kistos expects to receive over 900 million NOK (€80 million), not including accrued interest, in December 2024.

Add in $16m EBITDA and 13mbo 2P to the mix, coupled with highlandmatts other observations.

It does appear to be a good deal, even with the premium they’ve picked the assets up cheaply and TRIN will be in favour of this due to synergies, efficiencies of scale via cost reductions at an operational level and a huge upside potential via TXPs existing assets.

Alligator, can you evidence where PB and JS have met with investors?

I’m aware of the London visit but are you posting facts or fiction?

Short term movements are irrelevant, the company are moving forward at an accelerated rate. All the approvals are in place so no more red tape and with the cashflow to effectively forge their own destiny. Any enviable position.

I really don’t believe the supposition and theories posted below but each to their own. Let’s agree to disagree.

Given PB has aspirations to move the company to a mid cap FTSE250 entrant, I don’t think we need to be looking at manipulation on their part.

Wider market movements and a large seller are two contributing factors to the range bound movements.

Not sure I agree on that theory Geld.

TXP are rapidly progressing on all fronts, there will be a day (as with most stocks) where people will trip over themselves to get in despite the fact they have opportunity now.

A seller is pegging the price imho but when momentum kicks in, the shares will re-rate and quickly.

Absurd discount applied today on excellent news.

I’ve taken the opportunity to add to my holding.

I note PANR rallied yesterday adding circa £100m to its MCAP based on a remodelled desktop study with not even a drill bit turning.

TXP producing and a further two successful development wells into an ever growing proven resource and the SP falls.

Perhaps North selling into any news and/or volume. The results are great, two more development wells successfully drilled and awaiting tie in.

Rather they are speculating to accumulate and using cash flows to expand the resource and grow production than sitting on it or offering it to SHs as dividends. The aspect of TXP is most certainly growth. The right approach imho

Another solid result at Cascadura with Cas3 encountering a substantial sand layer whilst crossing the fault. Results to date are more than we could have hoped, the structure is huge and the delineation wells may even be more optimally placed for increased production.

Better than expected results at Coora with a second well currently being drilled.

Optimisation of deep appears to have offered little success but something that could be remediated later I believe. Sidetrack and or tapped off another drill with the lessons learnt and a more appropriate heavy consistency. I think optimisations now complete and a reduction in shut in periods going foreward should likely bring the average back up. We already know of a number of days the well was offline whilst the work was carried out.

Overall solid results, things are moving fast here - I still stand by year end production figures of +16k boepd. The RNS has certainly been conservatively written given the excellent results, is this in part being tempered until asset sign off is complete? That’s my thoughts.

This should be well received.

IMHO the only thing currently pegging the SP is North exiting their position perhaps as part of a portfolio re-org.

That whilst to some frustrating in itself presents an opportunity to build a sizeable position without having to chase the bid.