Member Info for tidd83

TB, perhaps READ the RNS?

"The Company expects to receive the outstanding funds on or before the close of business on June 20, 2025."

Note - close of business.

If and when the subscription is completed this week there will be zero acknowledgement or backtracking of the misleading and false “matter of fact” posts made today. The usual detractors will just move on to the next subject.

That tells you all you need to know. Don’t waste your time entertaining them, probably best to just report anything misleading and let the moderators remove them.

Erm.. No they didnt?

"On May 16, 2025, the Company issued 75,000,000 new common shares to the settlement agent acting on behalf of OAK Securities. Of these, 24,636,586 common shares have been distributed to investors. The remaining 50,363,414 shares are being held by the settlement agent and will be issued upon receipt of the outstanding funds."

News on Iran’s attack has sent Brent rallying up 7.8% currently

Thanks for this NQM - I did feel it was high. 110k boepd is certainly not to be sniffed at.

We dont even know what the preferred mechanism is yet, they may do a 25% buy back and/or mix.

Taken from Vars Q1 presentation;

"Jotun FPSO moored at field and on track for end-Q2 2025 start-up

• Adding ~180 kboepd at peak from new fields in 2025"

I assume the increase from initial peak production of 80 kboepd to circa ~180 kboepd will include the Balder 5-6 phases. Net to KIST of 18 kboepd at cost of just $5 per barrel

A lot of noise generated today and the usual suspects appearing to shout down the acquisition.

A brief note to remind people that the LNG and gas contract pricing currently under discussion should be announced shortly.

Give the team chance to conclude the necessary given the acquisition was only made today - at which point there will be meat added to the bone. For the naysayers who deemed the closure of the deal unobtainable - they simply now have only moved on to another topic without actually acknowledging the asset is now firmly under TXPs wing.

Consistently going to NT - quite difficult to pickup any size. I have added today.

Aligator, if what you are saying was a potential theory I am not exactly sure why BOTH parties would agree to conclude conditions and/or waive them by the mutual long stop date.

Based on your theory of negativity, there would be no “waive” term unless Shell are to handover the keys for nothing which is never going to happen. So what you are assuming does not have any merit.

Afternoon R8, I do indeed remember you! Hope all is well with yourself and family.

Doing well this side, life changes have kept me busy (all for the better) so whilst I follow, I don’t have the time I once did to post.

That being said, I think TXP are a completely different company to what we saw a few years back and, despite the negatives have achieved and surpassed the 5k boepd they originally aimed for with much more to come.

Can see a complete transformation of share price in the near term, all for the positive. With changes to government and this acquisition unlocking the LNG markets and a huge acreage position we could be at the cusp of another large bull run.

I have to agree, very much a glass half empty view. To state Shell are at the stage of “put up or shut up” is a little naive. For one, Shell would not instruct lawyers/solicitors to deal with a potential sale without completely DD on the acquiring party. Why would they? Secondly, a mutually agreeable date to waive outstanding conditions should they not be addressed (in two weeks) is a positive. That summarises that both parties are keen to close the deal, if one were to walk away (as implied) then why agree to mutually waive conditions.

TXP have long standing and positive relationships with banks and financial institutions and have always secured the debt funds they aim for. Any delays here will be around the structuring of the financing agreement, could be that TXP require a lesser loan given the delay in that cash incurred has increased which in turn results in a favourable reduction forms interest payments.

The banks would have issued an agreement in principle to the initial loan which TXP would need to evidence to Shell as the buyer. Nobody is going to be allowed to the table without proof they have the ability to fund the acquisition. With that said, I very much doubt that there is an equity element to this as it would have been discussed with major and potential holders already and communicated as much. It is therefore my opinion, given closure of the deal is so close there is zero requirement to raise on the open market.

TXP will know they need to get a wiggle on, as things stand they are sitting ducks ripe for a takeover. The acquisition whilst not only accretive in many ways effectively opens the door to the new markets at much higher prices.

Again excluding all other assets and land, Cretaceous plays and existing production. They haven’t even scratched the surface and current production already growing YoY.

Solid and strategic acquisition, for those who haven’t realised - Central block does not fall into the same sales contract that is in place at Ortoire.

The existing 18mmcfd on production if exposed to the new LNG markets could be worth 3x as much. It’s like picking up an extra 50mmcfd of stable production along with the facility and infrastructure in place.

Little to no work has been done on this block under shell so I’d imagine with some workovers and additional targeted development wells this soon should grow.

Perhaps the 2025 development plans may add for some further wells!

LOL were circumvented. Their license had lapsed anyway, the only regret they’ll have is that they were sat on a potential huge discovery and in the years they owned it didn’t discover it.

The original plan to asset swap with legacy blocks from TXP got canned. Instead TXP retained their legacy land holding and picked up Rio via a deal structured directly by the ministry.

Masterstroke

We like the oil find!

That is a complete new ball game now and bodes very well for the updip Royston target in Rio and a further positive for the Cretaceous Kraken play!

Oil is worth much more than gas, it’s excellent news all round and over doubles total production overnight. Need to get some calcs now on FCF but at current valuation and the amount of production at over 11,000boepd it warrants a much much higher price than a £80m market capitalisation.

With the seller likely to be cleared and the recent volume increasing this should be the step change we needed. The rig will likely move to Cas B in the coming days/week and I’d expect a further 2-3 development wells to come online with pipelines and racks already in place again adding a further 6-8k boepd?

One other thing to note, any gas sales originating from the block can be negotiated on new terms and are not subject to the existing fixed contract put in place for Ortoire.

Https://www.instagram.com/p/DB9vVR5xtpn/?img_index=1

John, just to be clear even at a conservative 20mmcfd per well as per your post (80mmcfd total) that alone is closer to a 200% increase on todays existing production excluding all else.

The SP does not currently reflect current value however with the wells at Cas B and C coming on, I would expect to see the value north of £1 as opposed to a lowly 63p

With the conclusion of the TRIN acquisition and Cas 2 and 3 drilled and due to come on stream shortly TXP could close out the year with production of circa 17k boepd.

With a portfolio of other targets and an enormous resource rich acreage position (the biggest onshore player) this has the potential to double again.

If one of the Suriname lookalike Cretaceous plays were to come in then all bets are off as the SP could go absolutely bananas.

Positioning now ahead of a news rich period with such a discount applied due to the recent news lull is a gift horse.