Touchstone Exploration Share Chat (TXP)

Looks as though we're developing a pretty strong base at 30p so any good (or great news) is going to result in this moving upwards very quickly. No-one selling. And buyers appear to be waiting on the sidelines. Most lth's I'd imagine have averages much higher than 30p and that's with averaging down. Just needs a match. They need to execute Casc 2&3 (and following wells) this year without any left field nasty surprises. PB doesn't have the most stellar record when it comes to execution, but they have always gotten there in the end. Hopefully lessons have been learned and they nail it with these two upcoming wells to give the market confidence in the 'wall of cash' arriving next year. Clock keeps ticking down to end-September hook up. GLA

Hopefully no bad news in the next update and we hear that everything is still on track for end-September hook-up. The sp will then start to slowly move upwards over the next month. Once hook-up is confirmed with first gas flows in the expected range I see the sp being safely in the 40's. News on next wells being drilled in 2024 and we should see 50's by year end. All execution and meeting expectations now.

TRIN won't make much of a difference one way or another. I'd let them wait until January unless they throw a few $m our way. They f@cked us around, so we should do the same. GLA

One month the lids coming off.

Has TXP ever had a day with so few trades in London?

With TXP, it's been "never say never" since November 2021.

However, they're now making money (> 3mm USD/Q1) but the company is valued at < 100 mm USD. And that's with 2 drilled wells, just waiting to be hooked up (and some paperwork).

That's a compelling risk/reward IMHO. Management discount is too big right now.

I bet hum,wish they had txp's balance sheet

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1053761/hummingbird-shares-slump-after-half-year-of-problems-1053761.html

Providing Casc 2 & 3 are delivered on forecast (time, budget, production) we will be in the 40's. The only concern for me out of those three elements is time. If they f@ck anything up it's going to delay hook-up and production, which adds cost and reduces our chances of hitting quite stretching targets. I think production will be absolutely fine and better than our first two wells. If timings are hit by end of next month we should end up north of 40p within 4 weeks. I'm more interested in how many more wells they intend to drill this year.

As for TRIN, they need to ignore and get on with things. If LOL and TRIN come back with a cash offering they should take it. Otherwise they should let the f@ckers wait.

Hey Aligator If my Aunt had balls then she's probably a man .

SP would of course would tank if cas 2 /3 are not that good ,highly unlikely , equally the Sp would rise if better than expected

I personally love a open forum , as said would be nice for you to spend some time on why you remain invested .

Ps Since the Operational Update on 1 August (based on which many posters appear to have developed considerable optimism), the sp has declined by ca 11%...

Dbh1965dbh, Thank you for your curt response. I am always intrigued as to why people become offensive just because others either say, write or do something with which they don't agree. There are far more pleasant and polite ways to disagree.

I have indeed read the "RNS" to which you refer. However, I was actually commenting on two other issues - the impact on the sp of the Trinity bid and the prospect of further sp decline should the quarterly report contain anything negative relating to production (irrespective of the recent statement) or reservoir decline at Cascadura.

I presume you are a shareholder and so we are both in the same boat, hoping that this will all turn good in due course. However, it is a stupid investor who ignores the downside risk potential in any deal or company, hence my pessimistic approach (as supersport knows).

I'd be happy for them to take USD$2m as an apology fee and get on with things. Put the money toward another Casc well this year. The is less than what LOL would make from the assets over the 6 month period. Otherwise make them wait and pay useless bod fees. It will take at least another 3 months post January anyway.

Gator….you really have to stop your ignorance. Once again there was a recent production rna just take the time yo read it, if you can read that is

With due apologies to supersport, got to comment again on the sp and the impact that the Trinity bid has had. It is in relative limbo courtesy of the LOL bid (and could go on for months), demanding considerable BoD and senior executive time (when Cascadura should be the focus), costing money (lawyers etc) and is probably contributing to all sorts of negative vibes in the market.

Let's just hope that the quarterly production data and any pronouncements on reservoir decline are positive. The alternative is too worrying to consider.

That's a reasonable expectation. However, hard to predict share price reaction - who'd have thought we'd lose 25% from making a move for trin! I think we're way undrr-valued compared to near time potential so if people start believing who knows!

With the positive update last week, I'm feeling bullish about txp. Personally, on balance, I don't want this TO of trin. It might have been good but it's an unnecessary distraction now. We were at 41p and, with the update last week, we might have kicked on significantly. Instead we're dominated by noise and distraction, overshadowing the good vibes.

Positive of low share price is that out directors won't (hopefully!) Be tempted to increase their offer now!

Jfk, it will cost LOL, and it will provide risk over the time period. So not great for the deal.

Funny thing is we'll be in the 40's and rising by then if Casc 2 & 3 guidance is met. I'd like to see us drag it out just to f@ck with the TRIN and LOL bods.

I think that would get us to 35-40p WAA and not where we need to be to make the LOL offer less attractive. It's another 8 weeks before Casc 2 & 3 are hooked up and we have an idea of initial flow rates. This is the news that will get us into the 40's. That's not to say that directors shouldn't put their hands in their pockets. All directors who believe in their company should be doing this.

GGG any delay does not cost Trin anything to, provided management sit on their hands and draw their unjustified salaries. As long as they don’t embark on a further ill conceived ventures, like Jscobin, the cash will keeps piling up.

Supersport, Fair comment and no attempt at a defence, except to say that my risk analysis background has resulted in a more pessimistic approach to most of my investments on the basis that good news is a bonus. That said, I think you have to agree that the story of TXP, if not the ridiculous promotions of PB, over the past 3 years or so (enormous reservoirs, walls of cash, etc) has come back to bite the company in the backside with a sp trading at ca 85% lower than its high in early 2021.

Aligator

If you look at all your posts you never mention anything potentially positve, that's not to say you don't blog validated points of opinions.

The market certainly represents, in part your views ,

However woukd be nice to see you a little more balanced .

There is definitely no question there are many variables an certainly some very strong potential outcomes.

Simple solution: positive operational progress + directors put hand in their pockets, show confidence in txp, and buy chunky amounts. Share price rises; lol offer becomes unattractive and we can go back to the day job

JV would make the t/o far, far more complicated. Best outcome for us is we get the assets for our approved offer, or they give us a couple of $m and we refocus on Casc. If they're unwilling to give us some money for wasted time then we should make them wait until January at the very least. The contract supports us and makes a mess of things for them. It shouldn't cost or create any more issues to hold on for 6 months. It will however cost them something. JV would be the ultimate clusterf@ck.

This is rapidly evolving from a sh*t show into a clusterf*ck and the market reaction is plain to see in the TXP sp, irrespective of whether we feel we are in a position of strength or not.

The suggestion of a jv with LOL is not that left field as one might think since the alternative of this potentially dragging out and even going to a commercial court thus tying up TXP BoD time etc, could really be quite negative.

Yes but would it be beneficial to both if a Jv could be achieved cutting the costs both on and offshore and buying Trinity.

We hold all the cards , objectively it's good to see a better offer, we had no choice in that .

Can we be gazumped ?? not without a cost to either LOL or Trinity.

Our SP has been diluted because of the unsurety of the Aquistion. this offer helps to clarify the offer price.

Decline rates also added to the worry ,they seem to have flattened out .

We're cheap as chips now , I'm filling my boots...