Touchstone Exploration Share Chat (TXP)

Yeah I think the rate of decline was a big factor for some investors, not being familiar with O&G decline curves, they just may have thought the wells were going to zero rather than finding their natural level. Now we understand the decline curve in these structures the companies forecasts should become a lot more reliable :-)

Agreed folks, providing of course they execute according to timings and deliver forecast rates. The first big step-up will be 4 weeks from now providing everything goes to plan. They'll prove they can execute. And if the flow rates are the same or better that our first 2 Casc wells, then we should be in for a quick re-rate back to the low 40's i.e. the sp prior to the TRIN announcement. The next 2 x wells and 50-60p will be the new channel until more wells are drilled and hooked up.

As for the reasons provided by SS, I'll go with a combination of lemmings selling and chasing other rainbows whilst waiting on Casc 2 & 3. Some will be returning in 1-2 weeks pre-hook-up. Some will jump in when they read successful hook-up, and the majority (stragglers) will get in on flow rates. Expect sp will move back to the mid 30's in 2-3 weeks, mid to high 30's on successful hook-up, and low 40's on flow rates. As is the way on AIM. GLA

Agree SS...despite all the uncertainty around TXP lately...with the new production coming on line next month I think this should be an easy double from here in six months, or so. By then there should be four new wells in production...regardless what happens with the Trinity deal. IMO

Well if that's true , its utterly preposterous an there miss out...

I do not think it is uncertainty over the Trin acquisition that is keeping the price suppressed. Investors are staying away because they are far from convinced that TXP is capable of delivering a decent return.

Lemming selling

Timing

Madness of Aim

Needing funds

Investment elsewhere

Wait for cas 3/4 hook up results

Trinty saga

Any of the above .

One thing I'm sure were be a screaming buy in 6 weeks.

So it went down on the LoL offer, people said it was because of the fear that TXP might increase their offer. Well they confirmed they would not be increasing their offer and it goes down again!

Any idea's?

Absolutely correct (and obvious) decision not to increase trin offer. As the release reminds us there's significant share price impacting news, If the new wells come online as anticipated we should enjoy shareprice increase and, as a corollary an increase in offer for trin. I think more pertinent is point then is whether we should then let our original offer lapse....before making e

a less a generous offer! Trin directors did it to us, our directors should look after directors their shareholders and do the same!

I guess back to the pre-gazumping attempt level, when the fear of a new, higher TXP bid (now seemingly quashed) arose...

Aligator, why should it recover back towards the pre-bid price? The offer is still on the table. So... maybe towards the level following the bid.

Supersport, The BoD have a fiduciary responsibility to the shareholders to protect their interests. Failure to do so would expose the directors to legal charges and penalties. For that reason, no director of any company would leave the outcome of such a situation solely in the hands of its third party lawyers, hence why I am sure the BoD are intensively involved in this situation.

Aligator I cannot see it taking up the the time of the BoD.

The Legal process will be in the hands of the Lawyers to prevent Litigation or so .

Be interesting to see what the sp does today. In theory it should recover back towards the pre-bid price.

Good news in some respects but this conundrum must be taking up a lot of board time and TXP money.

TXP bappears to hold the upper hand per the following paragraph in the RNS:

"Touchstone notes that the terms of the Irrevocable Undertakings oblige those Trinity Shareholders and Trinity Directors who gave Irrevocable Undertakings to vote against the recommended offer by Lease Operators Limited for the entire issued and to be issued share capital of Trinity (the "Lease Operators Offer"), which is intended to be implemented by way of a Court-sanctioned scheme of arrangement pursuant to Part 26 of the Companies Act (the "Lease Operators Scheme"). As long as the Irrevocable Undertakings remain binding, the statutory majorities required for shareholder approval of the Lease Operators Scheme would not be capable of being met and the Lease Operators Scheme would not, therefore, be capable of becoming effective."

Given that it is effectively only TXP who can cancel the Irrevocable Undertakings, this bid does appear as if it could succeed. That said, should the Trinity shareholders and directors who signed these undertakings take this to court, it could become messy, drawn out and costly.

Yes, fear that we would increase the offer was one of the main blocks on SP upwards movement for the last month or so. Onwards and upwards! PB also took the opportunity to remind all of the upcoming expected positive news flow...

Good news indeed. Those amateurs at Trinity now need to cave in and do what they signed up to do.

PB is not increasing the offer ..

Kestas, I think you need to look at Q4 2023 as a guide to the amount of money that will be thrown off in Q4 this year. There will be 2 x new wells coming online in early October generating incremental production on a higher base than last year. Even with decline rates the cash being generated will be the highest ever in Q4, and then Q1 2025 will push even higher with another 2 x Casc wells coming online. This of course depends on Casc 2 & 3 being as productive as our first 2 x Casc wells. Most believe they will be better, so perhaps look at the Q4 sp last year (50-60p range) to get an idea of where we'll be at year end (all going according to plan).

If they hit forecasts, as still guiding, the sp will be in the 40-50p range for certain in October. Providing they are drilling the next two Casc wells in Q4 we should end the year in the 50's. This of course depends on execution and hitting forecasts. I'm not even thinking of selling until we hit the high 40's. SP will start climbing in 3 weeks. AIM lemmings love to leave things to the last minute. GLA

... closed @0.58 CAD in Canada = 32.75p

Traded at 0.6 at some point. I wonder if UK wakes up - maybe we're in one of the periods where Canada pulls ahead and UK is dragging and silent. When UK is leading, it's certainly not silent ;)

Kestas, Cash from operating activities 3,383.

Expanding production & drilling to fill is investment in future cashflow.

Of course, things in the future do only tend to be possible, hence why I said that production more aligned would be the best for all :-)

1. No fact.

2. Possible production are only possible... And no cash flow this quarter.

Think it is driven by 2 things Kestas, 1) failure to plan for production level declines conservatively and 2) the belief that the TRIN deal is distracting management from delivering better numbers for not a lot of benefit...

Luckily by the end of Sept we should have the 2 new wells online and if their productions levels are aligned with expectations we should see the stock reprice to a more sensible level, just my 2c's worth :-)

Question.

Last year 4 quarter... Profits from production 7.9 mln

1 quarter 3.9 mln.... Dropped price till 28.5 p

2 quarter -2.8 mln...

So min price higher than with bigger profit... ?

Think a bit..

PB's "wall of cash" comment of the past was not his finest moment considering Royston was pushed aside, the Sp and PB has payed a heavy price for this.

PB however has changed his ways where in fact he seems slightly pensive keeping his cards closer to his chest for now.

The Aquistion for Trinty I'm in the camp of believing this is a good deal ,an cannot be accountable for LOL gazumping

Christmas were be at 85p as a fun guess from me.