Member Info for Luke292

Where was the forward looking stuff? The whole RNS related to FY 24 and 25?

Doubled my position here on the update. Underlying business seems to be doing well with decent amount of new contacts to come online. Unfortunately market perception here is poor due to shenanigans with CFOs since listing and some poor accounting early on. Hoping this is a bit of a reset with lower guidance that management can beat and begin to rebuild some trust with the city.

Insane call from singers not sure what they think the valuation should be 2x PE then? Company is profitable and improving margins; winnings a decent amount of news contacts and has modest net debt for a manufacturing business. PE of 8-10 is reasonable considering past performance and no topline growth.

Feel like I'm looking at a different company to the market.

Main annoyance is that management can't seem to get a new institution to take the otus holding at this valuation. Surely you'd double your money easy by taking that overhang out in one hit. Oh well I'll keep adding as long as the trading updates are inline.

If it drops into the teens I'll back the truck up here.

I like this one. Nice niche business. Valuation is a joke. If they repeat anything like H1 then full year will be Revenue £10-11m & Pre-tax profit around £2m. Gives around a 0.8 EV/Sales and EV /EBIT of 4-5. Not bad for a decent margin business with recurring revenues of around 90%. Share price should be double this on current metrics, a bit of growth and should easily sail past £2. Seems like they have really turned a corner with the business in the last 3-4 years, looks lean and profitable now.

On a side note, market makers must absolutely have it off with this stock, move it around all over the place on no volume and with a widespread. Oh well, hold for gold here and I'd top up if the next update is half decent and we are still around the 80-90p level.

Looks likely now. Kestrel out fully. They started selling in the high 60's and did most of their business in the 70's if you look at the days with the biggest volume. Amazing to see such share price strength in an illiquid microcap at the same time an institution is selling 20% of the company. Surely a TR-1 soon from whoever took that stake, or they keep buying until they get over 30% and bid. Whatever the case someone seems happy to hoover stock up regardless of price at the moment.

I really hope not. It's happening a lot at the moment. Businesses that have turned a corner, invested heavily and investors have taken the downside risk and stayed patient. Then when the skies are clearing and it looks like your finally going to be rewarded it gets snatched away by a Private Equity bid on a 30% premium, management get rolled into the new company with some nice options and no scrutiny from the markets and you're supposed to be happy with the pathetic price paid for the company as you've made a bit of profit. Then wait for the cycle to turn and in 5 years it's getting floated again at 5x the price.

Was expecting a profit warning this morning as it sold off heavily yesterday pre-results so was pleasantly surprised this morning. I feel like I must be missing something because I don't get the valuation at all here. In-line trading update which gives us a PE ratio of around 3.5 and an EV/EBITDA of 2.4! Which is insane. Net debt to EBITDA is pretty modest too at around 0.6 especially for a manufacturing business.

Tough macro and sector very weak so gross margin improvement on softer revenue is pretty good and business is still profitable (Margins overall are a decent %). Only grumble would be cash generation is very low, but if it is legitimately going on expansion plans in Mexico and that is reflected in top line growth in 26 then I can live with that. Momentum for 26 looks good with the contract wins and hopefully cash generation improves and the net debt comes down as planned.

They seem to have found a decent niche reflected by the good operating margins and luckily not affected by the whole electric / hybrid / IC engine debate currently in the sector. Even a PE of 8-10 is hardly a stretch here so without the business even improving 75p-100p is not unreasonable. Find some growth and get rid of the debt and this is a 5 bagger.

Or I've lost the plot on this one, and someone can tell me what I am not seeing?

Yes they are big holdings for liontrust but they're not big shareholders within those companies. If they're trimming 10% across a whole portfolio to meet redemptions that's not going to make a difference to the share price of shell for example. If it's Gamma then that's almost 1% of the company. Added to the fact the FTSE 250 is weaker in general and anything heavily based on the health of the UK economy also weaker perhaps that explains a bit of the weakness. Who knows? I certainly don't.

I have a couple of mid-cap positions that have Liontrust as a major shareholder (Top 3), which has consistent share price weakness in the face of a recent in-line or above expectation trading update.

Liontrust have had about £5bn net outflow in their AUM last year which accounts for around 20% of total AUM. There is no way they have the liquidity to cover even a decent % of this from cash they'll hold for redemptions so must be substantially trimming positions to cover these outflows. I'd guess they'd start with their most liquid holding (of which Gamma would be nearer the top) to minimise the impact of this on their AUM performance. I'd imagine they couldn't even exit some of their micro-cap positions without an event or smashing the share price 50%+.

I have seen a couple of TR-1's on other positions from them. Wondering if one will pop-up here soon. FYI I have no information supporting this. Just something I noticed from my portfolio and speculating on. For me weakness here is a top-up opportunity.

Would be interesting to know where our two non-execs fit into this who are local big-wig types. Both own over 20m shares each so they certainly have skin in the game and seemed to have served previously in advisory roles for the Osun State Government. I would have thought the point of having these guys involved is to prevent this sort of situation from occurring!

Anyone found anything out about Lease Operators. Looks like they've done some drilling for bigger players but can't find out anything regarding their operations. Must be being used as a front for other players otherwise can't see them having the money to even buy trin let alone develop their assets.

Definitely can't blame PB for the new offer. Just sums up the last couple of years for me. Things always don't quite work out as they should or how we have been told. Some of it I think is PB's fault other times not. End result the same. If there's no new offer then surely this new offer is accepted. Better than ours and those trin investors who want to be in txp can buy more shares after in the open market anyway.

Seems his style. To be fair I'm not sure if there is a regulatory requirement to portray the new offer to shareholders of trin? Perhaps nothing that underhand happening. All I'll say about PB over the last 3-4 years is the stuff he has control over he doesn't do a fantastic job of and the stuff he doesn't he seems to be unlucky. Not a great combo. Still a hold for me here though think the quality of the assets will shine through, perhaps more in spite of PB than because of him.

Another PB special here. Deal which tanks the share price, said deal gets potentially snatched away at the last minute and we end up with the SP depreciation and no deal. If we go back with an improved offer I'm selling regardless. What we have is good enough to get the share.price 2-3x what it is today if they could just concentrate on delivering that.

The fact that you have latched onto this as a new negative shows that you're just putting a negative spin on everything now, most of which you do not even have the most basic understanding of. I wish you all the best with your investment if you really have one.

It was reference to the fact your words of advice to the company were to invest in appropriate machinery and make sure it has been maintained. As if they hadn't thought of that. Of course they have real machinery and know how leasing works. It was sarcastic. Didn't think that would need explaining or can't tell if you are on the wind up.

Yes I thought it was refreshing the first few posts back and forth but the following one hundred are just the same drivel and the longer it goes the more I see how superficial the knowledge is of our supposed financial wizard. Nevermind. I'm not saying Thor is faultless either but I think overall they are doing a good job with some points which need clarification in the following update. I think I can filter people anyway. It's a shame as I like seeing negative posts too but this is bizarre now.

Well do everyone a favour and have a rest.

Perhaps people can't or don't want to answer your questions. Some people have and you plainly ignore their responses or seem to know better.

Why don't you just wait for a response from the company.

Genius stuff. Can't wait for the guidance next year after we invest in some actual mining equipment.

What are you other sources for investigating the accounts payable number. I'm pretty sure you've flicked through the accounts and just seen a big number and that's it.

Are you going to continue posting the same thing 20x a day everyday or can this chat return to normal?

You've made your points people can make of them what they will.

Yes we get it you don't think they will reach their guidance you've made that point about 100 times now.

What is also evident from your posting is that you know almost nothing about how these businesses operate.

Your arrogance coupled with the simplicity of your posting is at times laughable.

Maybe they won't meet guidance but it will have had nothing to do with your amazing foresight or gifts.

Are you seriously going to ask a company that has explored, built and now operates an almost 100k oz per year gold mine whether they negotiate with suppliers, maintain their equipment properly, have thought about using appropriate mining equipment and have considered leasing it?

No wonder they don't reply to your emails.