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Well done all that kept the faith!
Rewards time
and ignore the shorts, they are desperate as they need to close.
The new CEO is delivering, it's as simple as that
What are your predictions for opening tomorrow?
A similar start as today seems likely (23-25p)
yeah held all day, well good on the holders, another good rise coming tomorrow when many see the news later.
with the uncrossed trade it may be 28 percent up today.
Tullow is back ;-)
Tullow's debt level now is less than it was a year ago when it was £2 quid a share, laughable it really is, should be in the 40s and 50s atleast.
Added a few @ 20.6
Would like to see shorts closing. What are they hoping for?
This management have said what they are going to do and they are doing it.
Nickel,
This gained good momentum after the RNS and rightfully so. Our MM's needed stock and took it down to 20p just to see how many shares they could transact.
You don't need to be a professor in maths to work out that Tullow is still massively undervalued.
Its market cap tonight is only £292 Million.
Today's RNS is the sale of a Ugandan asset for $500 Million + a further $75 Million at FID + also production royalty payments from Total.
The Ugandan asset is just 1 of some 70 licence interests that TLW have in 15 countries.
It is also producing circa 75,000 barrels of oil per day and has a shrewd hedge in place whereby it is getting $57 per barrel on 60% of its production.
% It has just passed its debt test with its lenders (RBL)
% $500M moneys to imminently to clear in Tullows bank a/c.
% Had $500M headroom prior to the proceeds from the sale of the Ugandan asset.
% Q3 numbers are due about the 2nd week in November (tbc) Oil is twice the price it was in Q2.
% 25th November is Capital Markets Day for the new CEO to unveil his asset maximisation plan.
% There are also a further $500M of asset sales being targetted.
% Next RBL is in January at the companies request.
It was 40p very recently and it should head back there.
I put it in simple terms with recent happenings and what is on the horizon.
The chartists and technically minded will probably skip all that and say "Gap filled" this afternoon.
Tullow is on the turnaround imo and it is probably best to get in whilst the share price is only just over 20p.
scaredycat - what shorts would you like to see closing. Are you talking about those that notify the FCA if they are over 5%?
Or are you talking about all the retail spread betters like DubaiDave that got thumped and burned by todays 10a.m. RNS. The same happened for all those with CFD's that were betting on the downside. The same for all those with positions under 0.5%.
It doesn't matter if it was any of these 3 types of unpublished positions or indeed if it was any dodgy positions they all took the same near 50% hit. I mention dodgy positions for those @PMO know that recently there was a Chinese institution fined £900k for holding an undeclared 16.9% equivalent short position that they hadn't declared.
Irrespective of the type they would all have taken the same hit today.
Things have now turned massively favourable for TLW and the new CEO with a 10a.m. RNS is showing he knows what is going on here and that he means business in turning the SP around.
He is now making things highly unpredictable for any further short positions and also he is showing that he is quietly and industriously getting on with re-establishing value here.
May I suggest you read your own blog,
''Today's RNS is the sale of a Ugandan asset for $500 Million + a further $75 Million at FID + also production royalty payments from Total.''
The sale of an ASSET in exchange for cash.
If the asset is sold at less than the MV = loss on disposal
''You don't need to be a professor in maths''
It takes more than maths to play this game,
goodnight!
$500M + $75M + royalty payments will all be coming as CASH.
Sorry for your loss today and any further looses to come.
Yes it is Goodnight. Filtered.
I'm in for the long game, just removing the wool from my eyes.
Good luck to you
Tbf mate.
Slim lining, disposing & getting cash in the bank at this critical time despite the loss on disposal is clearly a needed move.
Businesses do similar all the time and theres no reason why the market wouldn’t start pricing in a more stable company & future growth.
Oil price in the medium term looks positive & they have less debt now than 12 months ago, alone it with a lower oil price.
Looks good for 30/35p in the near term imo.
How confident are you the SP will hit 30p short term? Vote on scale 1 ... 5
where 5 - very confident, 1 not at all.
Depends what you define as ‘short term’ but yes. 5.
say in 1-2 months (by the end of 2020 is what I consider short term)
30p why is this so hard to believe ? Lol.
They have debt but debt can be manageable, if it’s manageable then it matters less... read accounts much of debt was for one offs not ongoings.
In the next few days will have more money put into the bank than the current market cap with an added $75m and royalties ongoing (no overheads on those) looks like a damn savvy play by mgmt to me.
Short term oil will drop a little bit over all against a weaker dollar its going up!!
@Camkite so I guess it's a 5 from you.
If / once we break 23p & hold we will see it pretty swiftly... how long it takes to break & hold we have to wait and see.
Also. It’s a 5 as it stands. The market is ever evolving & things change quick based on what we know atm I’d say 4 weeks 30/35p
New management, turnaround has begun. Imo
Spd
I believe the impairment loss of £1.3b booked in H1 has already takes into account reduction in MV or net realisable value of the asset. Therefore, the loss on disposal has already been factored in the sp as part of H1 results. However, the sale of asset was not factored in due to many uncertainties around disposal, but this has been removed now. I believe there is more upside from here. Let’s see the momentum over next few days. GLA!
Apart from the big elephant of debt in the room... any one know how tullow I tend on using the $500m ?
Where have you been ..... REDUCE DEBT OF COURSE.... are you for real or taking the ****ssssssss
Is there a possibility the company may issue a rights issue?
ROCKLAWN - not always the wisest move to Reduce debt with cash flow & sales proceeds provided it can be serviced over a period of time.
Using that money to reduce costings (for example) could prove much more favourable for the long term viability of company.
REDUCE DEBT OF COURSE - no s**t it’s a business.
Since becoming CEO on 1 July, I have been impressed by the quality of Tullow's people and the potential of our assets and I am confident that we can build Tullow into a competitive and successful business once again. Despite the challenging external environment in the first half of the year, Tullow has performed well; delivering production in line with forecast, agreeing the sale of the Ugandan assets and re-shaping the Group's structure and cost base. In the second half of 2020 our focus will remain on continuing to deliver safe and reliable production from West Africa, reducing debt and building a cost effective and efficient organisation that can compete in a low oil price environment."
All of which requires capital, slimlining & restructuring HENCE the reason for my question.