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The Australian coal was hedged at a much higher price so the current poor price of coal isn't applicable for australian coal what I don't know is the south african coal hedged???
Anyone know.
Coal at $100 per ton and SA operations make no profit ; coal at $200 per ton and annual net profit is above current market cap ! That's the basic economics here. Australia operations are probably marginally better at low prices, so a good diversification by the BoD assuming they're in it for the long term.
Has the market fully priced in continual RB coal at $90 ? Certainly not, the sp would be back at £2 if they had.
But a return to just around $130 and this starts to look like a low single digit p/e. So the question that really needs to be answered is will energy demand in Africa and Asia exceed the supply capabilities of "green" sources over the next few years.
I think it will, so I'll keep holding even though we're down 50% in the past 12months
They could be topping up to over 5 percent for the long term but either way this is positive 👍
The biggest question mark here is the low thermal coal price environment (92.50 now). TGA was 'sale of the century' when the share price was £1.50 and coal prices were 4x the current rates. We all filled our boots and made small fortunes. But now this stock is a definite 'watch'.
What is the economics of the South African operations at low prices? Ditto the newly-acquired Australian operations. And do these economics allow any kind of ongoing dividends? A 10% dividend yield in perpetuity would be great but this isn't guaranteed. I would argue that a double digit dividend yield is necessary to justify holding this stock.
We need to see and review a set of recent financial statements to answer some of these questions. There are also lingering concerns over South African logistics i.e. moving the coal using the crumbling, unreliable, strike-ridden South African rail system. Infrastructure risk gives TGA the occasional kick in the teeth.
I have a good feeling about the company's management team. They are open and they are pursuing diversification (but don't buy on the fluff around Dubai). However, management can't control the Richard Bay thermal coal price. I'm completely out of this stock but look forward to the day when I return.
Oh how good this stock was (still is).
I can't work out how low this may go but at the current market conditions I would say further drops before the bottom is reached.
Until the turn around - enjoy the SA commercialss
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKGs8ZJyHrg
This is very good news..I'm in and holding for 10 years now .if Divi 10 percent this is great deal at this price 🙏
Dubai. Seems a great idea selling coal in that area. Sure to get a great uptake.
China is planning on building 655 new coal fired power plants, while Americans are cutting back on the thickness of their plastic bags by a few microns. 🤡 #ClimateScam, still think TGA got a bright future GLA
Coal at
In June 2021, Anglo American distributed most of the shares in Thungela Resources to its shareholders, through an initial public offering.
"crawshaw
Posts: 3,151
Price: 476.20
No Opinion
RE: Approaching diviToday 09:46
"Back to ipo."
SCB, as clueless as ever. It was a demerger, not an IPO".
Come again???
"In June 2021, Anglo American distributed most of the shares in Thungela Resources to its shareholders, through an initial public offering."
As I said.... This is going back to IPO.
0777 you have to remember the southern hemisphere is colder in winter and then the summer is supper hot in vast parts of ASIA, India, pak, china and elsehwhere so massive demand on energy in summer too to keep the AC going and to avoid power shedding.
I agree I think coal is at it lowest, strange but it seems to crash in the winter and move upwards in the summer
I think coal price is in a bad place atm. If coal starts to move up so will this. Just a matter of time especially with gas moving higher everyday. I reckon if natural gas moves to say 3.30 and then we will see a 10-20% move of the coal price upwards too. Correct me if I am wrong ?
"Back to ipo."
SCB, as clueless as ever. It was a demerger, not an IPO.
No doubt some stop losses were triggered once the sp fell through 500p today to add to the selling.
As Edward points out the long term investment case here hasn’t changed, it’s a commodity stock and inevitably sentiment will swing between extremes.
GLA
Https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/South-Africas-Top-Coal-Terminal-Sees-Lowest-Exports-since-1992.html
This is having an impact
Quite right, Brad.
The daily movement of the coal price is a bizarrely short term obsession - if the price went up to $200 for a week, the share price would soar - if it fell to $50 for a week, it would collapse.
In truth, the only things that matter are the long term trends. Global supply against global demand, and Transnet's ability to move coal.
If you don't believe demand is going to outstrip supply, I have to seriously ask what you are doing here?
Personally, I think supply is going to fall much faster than demand over the coming decade, and that Transnet's problems will slowly improve.
I therefore think I am very lucky that I am going to have one of my biggest dividends of the year available to invest here on Monday week. Hopefully it will stay below £5 for a few more days.
Not to long ago I predicted this would be sub 500p... It was one big pump and dump now reality has set in.
Everyone is always obsessed with the price of coal ,the quantity is just as important and so far richards bay and transnet definitely have been performing better so far
Like I said panic selling it will bounce back up always does when results come out problem is its dropping because of the selling
Also noted a short selling up - so clear;y pushing the price down too
Thanks - loosl like I jumped in at teh wrong time - how low can this go or should I just take the loss (awful)