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Casino closed for the day. If you haven’t decided to buy/sell today, then you missed out.. either on opportunity to sell at this high level if the price dives, or opportunity to buy at this low level if the price sky rockets in the morning. It’s a roulette 🫣 🧨
This is the sort of trading update I wanted to see.. vague with no monetary specifics. Let’s roll towards 400p 🚀
Hmm. I’ve taken some off the table this morning. Last update gave clear indication of fundamental stabilisation and improvement, and pointed to impressive product mix. This one doesn’t add to that, and I see broker targets are coming in around the 260p mark so may drift. Valuation remains highly attractive medium term though IMO … ATB … ps see at least one of our eminent PFC holders has done another bit of “post event” trading. Will it ever stop?! .. :)
I agree largely with the two recent comments from Wigwammer and GMHK. As indicated in this update and recent competitor comments, the chemical market seems to continue plodding along the bottom - with some small positive indicators but no visible signs of any substantial improvement. Much the same as in the last update.
The recent debt refinancing puts the group in a better position to implement their announced business strategy - which from public statements seems to me to be in process - and puts the business on a firmer mid-term financial footing. But absent of any new announcement e.g. of a substantial disposal of a non-core business, I assume, subject to emotions and short term trading activities, there is no cause to expect any substantial upward price movements - although given that I am still heavily under water I would like very much to be proved wrong on this assumption.
I’m kind of confused why would anyone want to sell this rough diamond? We’ve just had a vague but still “cautiously encouraging” trading update and we might be knocking on the ftse 250 door pretty soon. I personally don’t think we need anything else for it to fly.
WW and FS, what would you expect SYNT to do next..purely from chart standpoint?
Well I still have most of my position, so I expect it to go up. But my confidence it will rise materially on the back of this update is lower than after the prior update because 1) they have not detailed anything that gives rise to believing the earnings outlook is either improving in terms of level or quality, versus the guidance given before… 2) the valuation has doubled already off the lows… 3) broker targets are no longer guiding to a doubling of the share price… surely an equally valid question is - given we have been presented with the same vaguely optimistic guidance as at the last update, why didn’t you own far more shares lower down when the valuation was cheaper, such that now you would be willing to sell because the valuation is demonstrably more expensive?
Why didn’t I own more shares? Lol.. since I pumped just over £75k early Feb having suffered 95% unrealised loss on my initial £25k investment, I guess my current holding of 54k shares with average of 185.92 is more than I was comfortable with at the time. Feel free to look at my history. I’m over 50% up and still not planning to sell a single share as none of my price targets have been hit pre trading update. My target of 350 from last month is no longer valid though. My new target is around 450p.
You might be tempted to sell at current level but I have a lot of patience, time and I’m happy to take a risk.
GMHK - you stated you were confused why people were selling. The simple answer is that at a higher price/valuation the stock is closer to people’s targets. So it’s really not that confusing, is it? While I can understand holding while a stock reacts to a new and more positive data point, I really can’t see anything more positive in todays update that justifies moving your price target from 350 to 450. But hey ho, to each their own… I have a 3 year price target of 750p+, if it gets there quickly I’ll be very happy. ATB
I guess, it’s stock market.. sometimes there are things you can’t justify or explain. Technical analysis is kind of art in itself.
Hope it gets to your 750p target at some point 🚀🤞
Hi GMHK - I don't really know what price to expect for Synthomer in the short term. I can't give you a number. If I had to - I could only give you a range - say 250p to say 350p. There is no calculation behind this, no chart, just a guess.
Like you I am an original (pre RI) holder of Synthomer but I buy shares only on a long-term basis. I have various criteria for my investments including that I hold a limited number of investments (currently 8 shares) and I invest in established technology companies e.g. in Pharma, defense, and precision instruments. Synthomer was my chemical industry choice. I chose them because I felt their planned product focus was interesting, and my very basic research indicated they were key players in several interesting continuing markets. However, and maybe like you, I underestimated the impact of the Eastman purchase - its timing, the price paid, the operational issues etc. I now consider Synthomer a "good" investment - for which I have unfortunately overpaid.
I have of course bought more shares in Synthomer through the RI and after, because I still believe in the company. I believe the shares have a large upside potential but accept that this will not happen until volumes return to the chemical sector - and if that does not happen in the next few years, Synthomer could be in trouble again. But as far as I can see the management are cognisant of the risks and have taken reasonable steps to cover them and prepare the company for the upturn. To me the risk reward outlook is favourable particularly if they can sell more non-core operations.
Lastly, as to a future (mid-term) share price - again I don't have a calculated timeframe or number ... but as an indicator ... I am expecting a wait of say 2 years (+?) - I don't see economies improving in a shorter timeframe - and a price north of £7 (back of the envelope calculations based on previous share prices, information in the RI documentation and competitor share prices - all very rough stuff) as indicators.
Regards
Quote from RNS:
“Continuing Group volumes were at their highest levels since Q2 2022.”
This sentence alone will send us to 450 by end of May. I know ridiculous statement but let’s wait and see.. counting down 15 trading sessions to go….
Synthomer Plc (SYNT:LN) (SYHMY) PT Raised to GBP3.75 at Berenberg
💎 🙌 hold for gold ✊ and don’t let your emotions play you
U.S. Hikes Tariffs on Chinese Gloves (on May 14th). Is this driving current share price rise?
Anyone?
What is moving this share price
Well done to those that continue to hold this.
The share price & the news releases personally are going in completely different directions. I didn't think either of the recent trading updates were particularly good & the sale price obtained for the sale of the profitable division was poor. Yet the share price is up around 175%
GLA
LOTM
The most plausible explanation to me, by looking at market cap, is the anticipation of entry to ftse250 that might be announced some time before June. That will likely bring interest of institutional investors 🚀 HOLD FOR GOLD 🚀✊
Our rough diamond is about to get into desirable shape 💎🙌
Someone panic sold 22.5k shares on this little drop this morning. That’s exactly what they want you to feel and do to get your cheap shares. Don’t be paper hands person.
Regarding the ftse reshuffle.. from what I’m reading, the market cap data cut off is on 24th May with notification of index changes on 28th May. Few shares (such as synt, ocado, mcg and others) might get affected by the reshuffle 🤞🤞🤞
Yikes 307 is concerning 😬
Not a great start to my SYNT investment. Bought at £3.34 at 8.15 this morning. Wish I'd stayed in bed a little longer and bought in this afternoon. Never like to see an investment drop 7% on the day you buy in but eh oh, such is life.
Idg69, not the best entry but it happens. Remember, some of us - long term holders - have price target of 450, some even 750 though over few years. Stay strong, we shall rebound soon 💎 🙌
Surprising drop today when a comment in Dowlais mentioned re-stocking in powder metalurgy with the de-stocking period seemingly passing. I'd have thought a good omen for chemicals industry. The problem with some of these rising stocks is that without divi, buyback or something further to re-assure shareholders of 'imminent' value (such as significant cash generation) ... makes it hard to hold on to such a significant rise.
I don’t pay too much attention to current market conditions as price action is forward looking and general consensus is the conditions are improving. So this drop is likely to scare weak hands and make them to sell. I strongly believe what we’re about to witness here in the near future (1-2 months), will surprise many people on this board
I think the mcap cut off for the FTSE rebalance date is June 4th, and I think SYNT would need to be around the £575m mcap (ie 350p) mark to get back into the FTSE 250. Not out of the question but shares would need to push on quite a bit over the next two weeks. I don't think any updates are expected until Interims on 13th August, so might be tough to get there this time... Obviously what happens between now and then with other stocks matters also, eg a big profit warning from some of the smaller current FTSE 250 constituents would help lower the threshold for SYNT.