Amazed this SP is flat today11 Jun 2026 12:11
Amazed this share is holding 140p to be honest. I was thinking someone would snap this up for a c.30-40% premium. I guess the market had assumed that no deal for Cyber was in the offing for a while?
Results look OK only, modest u/l growth, margins still very low. I read it as to expect quite a lot of exceptional cash costs over coming 6-12m to right size the business (hence only returning £170m tender +£15m buy back out of the £230m they have on their balance sheet).
Targets are pretty modest, only mid single digit growth (no acceleration from current levels), and mid teens EBITDA margins which i think means about £160m rev in FY28 and c.£40m EBITDA (assuming 'mid teens' means 15%+ and not 13%). The increase in EBITDA is almost all coming from cost cuts of £25m and maybe £5-7m only from growth, which is why I think there will be a lot of cash leakage to execute this (it costs money to fire people) of maybe £15m over the next couple of years.
If they get there, then there might be 50-100% upside over 3 years. BUT it's very much a jam tomorrow story (still) and a lot of execution risk still - need to take out a massive chunk of their cost base to hit those targets. Whilst still winning customers and growing at the same time.
If the tender is at a decent premium I would expect most shareholders to take it, so imagine most will be scaled back to c.50%. Also bear in mind that after the tender this will be out of the FTSE 250 so there will be some forced selling from trackers (and possibly some funds) at this point also.
I'm going to keep watching from the sidelines, I like the business at the right price but at this point in time the risk / reward profile is all wrong IMHO.