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Discussed risk that should be
I think the SBR will be launched and over the course provide information which can be used to mitigate some of the risk, perceived or otherwise.
I think the TBM should be optimised completely and used to maximum potential metres per day.
This needs to get to point Y where it can be assured a 3rd TBM is not required.
With the TBM being 2 months ahead of schedule, the project on a whole ahead of schedule? (Find out next week) then moving for a new stage 2 package, will a revised downward budget be announced with a revised contingency?
If memory serves me, Gina already holds the rights over the port or part port. Is my memory correct?
Hi Scotman,
What did you mean by "find out next week", sorry if I am being dim!
There won't be a quarterly update. There wasn't last time there was a half year update either.
Quarterly update.
Myo, must admit, I’ve never got round to the half yearly yet! Will do this eve. Thanks for pointer.
Glad you came back early Myo as I think right now even though your post will probably get lost in the mist it is worth a try !
Please all the undecided here do listen to what CF had to say yesterday ... My worry now is that even with massive rewards to possible lenders they still need the risk to be lowered ! So now they have given themselves six months prove this. Cf stated what needs looking at, what needs to be addressed , and that they are exploring every option. I think now the BOD really do know what is being asked for and maybe they were blinkered and concentrated on progress and lost sight of it ( haven't we all done that) ... I just hope they have the funds to get to where they need to and manage in the process to dot the Is and cross the Ts that are needed to find the funds. Personally I think they will ,IN MY OPINION guys .... Cf stated that it's all about risk v reward for the lenders so come on BOD you have six months now so get it done... If you look at all the video's with the engineers you can see them excited about the project but always with that excited " we are going where no man has before" and we are being provided with all the toys no expense spared ??? well now they will need to prove their mettle but to a budget ? can they do it ?? i BELIEVE THEY CAN !
I saw all the fantastic attitude and determination in all those video's and believe it when they say that all the workforce are committed ... I guess now you have to feel a bit sorry for Herrenkenct as they only get to supply one more TBM ,
ffc
Scotman
Yes the TBR is flying.
Clear the risk item is the shaft sinking. CF didn’t go into detail yesterday on the shaft programme. The latest from the company stated
‘The Company is confident of accelerating the shaft sinking schedule by up to 6 months in partnership with DMC...’
Any thoughts on what the status of the shaft sink could be in 3-6 months?
Of all the construction this for me us the critical one.
Didn’t see your post there Myo for all the dross... tin hat time.
Maybe Myo's posts are the biggest dross.
How long will it take to clear the aquifer? That seems to be the concern. Once thats away the risk is reduced.
"In spite of the financing setback, Mr Knights of Liberum said the economics of the project remained compelling and Sirius would make an ideal target or strategic investment for a major mining business, agribusiness or sovereign wealth fund.
“In an environment void of projects that can move the needle for major companies, Woodsmith ticks most of the key investment criteria,” he said."
Good question Aubery . at what depth is the wet stuff and can we assume that is probably the biggest risk ? can we get through it before the clocked "tocked"
another question is if we are only going with two TBMs ? can one of the slow downs be at lockwood ? presumably it would be just an inspection chamber and not a cavern for building the TBM ?? ( more pennies saved ?)
so many avenues to explore now as a change of tack is needed ?
fascinating stuff and if it wasn't for my over confidence ( in a bit deep) It could have been enjoyed more . hey ho
ffc
the only argument I guess in that instance, is that such would be more appropriate for a project interest group website rather than a 'trading' website like this.......
Amen to that.... This board has hit a cliff bottom.
One question - do we know if the TBM will continue its work through the six month slow down period?
Presumably if it does SM can just use the two TBM's???
I’d love to get away from this board at the moment - I feel I need to read it but it’s hard to read endless posts that make you feel worse! We all know the situation but for those of us that have decided not to sell I think we all are aware of what’s happened/what could happen. Plus it’s hard to read the posts you’d like to read!
Get real avocet , what are you saying ? that you didn't DYOR,
and you bought in on Myo's posts ? Iv'e ramped , you've Ramped, nearly every LTH have ramped ? when has Myo ramped ?
I don’t see this one going to the wall and believe a takeover / JV is likely. Most invested here are significantly Down and i for one will be waiting it out.
Myo's 11.58 is a classic post from myo ! Bellers asked a question and as usual myo had the answer ... most here are glad he's here but when things start going wrong the blame game starts ,,, CFs fault, the govs fault, the shorters fault, Myo's fault, the rampers fault, JPMs fault ,, jesus this is a penny share and most on here are greedy me included but where does it say we can abstain responsibility ??? look in the mirror folks it is what it is ...
Fred it’s really gutting what’s happened. I sold the last drabs of my holding out yesterday. I guess you’ve probably lost a small fortune, but better to sell & take something away. IMO anyone holding equity will be wiped out 100% , Gina & the bondholders or whoever takes over Sirius will have zero sympathy for existing shareholders. No doubt Fraser, will be ok, even though unfairly or not his reputation is shredded. Truly, truly sorry.
Thanks Myosotis. I hope the sink rate is a little faster than 4 m per day then. It would be good to derisk , if the aquifer is the concern, before the finance is completed. I would imagine they will go all out on the shaft now and push as fast as possible.
"I don’t see this one going to the wall and believe a takeover / JV is likely. Most invested here are significantly Down and i for one will be waiting it out"
Could you run through a takeover/JV scenario that doesn't leave existing shareholders with massive dilution or indeed being wiped out?
From yesterday's Proactive Investors
"........and offers the potential to use the machine's mucking system to transport up to 6m tonnes per year of polyhalite during tunnel fitout, which would accelerate commercial production."
I know we're clinging to any possibility but surely this scenario is very vaid. And obviously begs the question "Why hadn't the BOD considered this long ago as a viable way to get early earnings". It will certainly hamper the fit out but hey, product sales are far more pressing
Fred feeling pretty much the same, but can't resist checking !
Hoped we might see a bounce today but it seems not. Really can't accept that 38p to 20p to 15p to 10p to 4p is warranted given progress take off and the known resource.
Waiting to see if Shorts increase or II's sell to justify the sp which seems well oversold to me.
Like you I'm holding and will not sell at an 80% loss. I couldn't resist a topup (although I have promised my wife not to buy anymore), the only good thing out of this is the ave is now 18.8 - so break even is a little nearer than it was. No idea how to calculate future value now given where we are so just watching waiting and hoping SXX get some sort of deal that leaves some value.
GLA LTH
I assume therefore Myo that the inference is that discussions are taking place, which might be construed as being "commercially sensitive".... In which event it might explain why there has been no further comment from the company
Ffc, well said, I too am sitting on an 80+% unrealised loss atm and the only person to blame for that is me. Like Fred I too have become emotionally attached to the company, you cannot help it when you drive past the site on the way to Whitby. S boro for the day or see the hope it brings to my region. I want to be part of the story. I wanted my granddaughter to invest too so she grew with the company - and I see her unrealised paper loss and I feel, well I do not know actually. Guilt, ashamed, embarrassed. But I explained the risks, and those risks still stand and so does the hope and expectation that this will be a great success for those of us who still believe in the leadership and acumen of the BoD. I do. I believe in the decency of the human soul and that people are honest in their words and endeavours. We are not being played, shafted, crikey the emotive language, the management is simply responding to circumstances and aim to get the best deal for us all.