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Google AI has answered my question

Replacing the Energy Profits Levy (EPL) with a permanent successor mechanism will trigger a significant, long-term recovery in the share prices of North Sea oil companies by slashing their tax burden from 78% back down to 40%.The UK government has formalised a replacement framework called the Oil and Gas Price Mechanism (OGPM). Because equity markets price in future cash flows, removing the restrictive 38% EPL windfall surcharge and switching to this predictable, price-triggered mechanism alters the fundamental valuation of independent UK operators.📈 Immediate Drivers for Share Price GrowthReplacing the EPL structurally reshapes the economics of the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS), driving stock prices up through three core financial mechanisms:Instant Cash Flow Upgrades: Dropping the headline tax rate from 78% back to the baseline 40% Corporation Tax rate immediately improves net income margins. Wall Street and City analysts will revise corporate earnings models upward, translating directly into higher target share prices.Return of Institutional Capital: The punitive EPL environment caused severe investment flight and prompted major operators to exit the North Sea. A stable successor regime removes this "UK fiscal risk premium," encouraging institutional funds to buy back into undervalued British energy equities.Resuscitating Paused Projects: Independent developers with major un-risked assets (such as Jersey Oil & Gas at the Buchan field) will see previously paused projects become highly profitable again. Moving these assets from "paused" to "active" sharply elevates a company's Net Asset Value (NAV).🔄 The Replacement Mechanism (OGPM)How share prices react during a commodity boom depends on the exact parameters of the Oil and Gas Price Mechanism (OGPM):The Baseline (40% Tax): Companies are taxed at 40% during standard market conditions, allowing them to retain cash for dividends and share buybacks.The High-Price Trigger (75% Tax): The windfall element only activates if global commodity prices spike beyond designated thresholds. For the 2026/27 financial year, these boundaries are set at $90 per barrel for oil and 90p per therm for gas.The Stock Market Impact: Share prices will remain buoyant and stable while oil trades below $90. If oil breaches $90, stock gains may temporarily cap out as the higher tax rate activates.

I’m just warming my self up with this stock having put it in the freezer for 5 plus years. Assuming freakshow Miliband is defanged, what impact do you learned people anticipate will happen to the SP if we get a new deal in place with a 90 dollar floor on Brent before revenue is impaired & why?

AB has done a top job & £1 party would be fair recognition of value, however on past experience I won’t be putting the plonk on ice yet.

So many false dawns with this company, but it’s still punching above itsnweight. AB is an inspirational fighter & despite the best efforts of the fake conservatives & the much worse Miliband he has proven to be much better than those pygmies. Fingers crossed & maybe just maybe this is finally ENQ’s time.

i have not posted for several years, but great to read today’s news. ab is truly battle hardened, like a lot here let’s hope he can finally enjoy what he has built. i know he is probably too polite to say it but i’ll say it for him **** you mentally ill miliband.

Linda needs to stop divi’s & buybacks & instead needs to spaff hundreds of millions on carbon capture and other green crap as Cameron once said. The city could then spin HBR as ESG. Ultimately like a lot of other green shares it will tank, but well before then the City would have made a nice packet & moved onto the next fad.

Elon Musk says civilisation will crumble without oil & gas.
The anti O&G tide is starting to turn.

Your welcome to your opinion Tigar, personally I think I’m being harsh but fair. You mention momentum media, imo media momentum is building that O&G will be needed for many, many years.

Thanks for that Pelle, I’ll take a good look at Africa oil.
Those tax savings are incredible, approx double Enqs cap.

Good to see you over here Pelle, hope your HBR purchase proves to be well timed like I think the majority of your ENQ holdings. In simple terms what would 3B translate into tax savings. ?

This is off topic, but on a Sunday why not;
The Johnson Family have a couple of reported mantra’s
1/ Nothing Matters & what Matters doesn’t matter at all.
2/ What matters is what you do, not how well you do it
So true of Boris, but probably very true of his recent predecessors too.
No wonder the UK is in such a pickle when these principles are hard wired into our betters.
No buyers remorse from me about Boris going, but apprehensive that ‘crackers Truss’ maybe no better.

I agree, it will kill future investment, other than what’s already committed in the Nsea basin stonedead. A nice short term political win for whoever proposes, but longer term yet another 6 inch nail in the UK economy.

Excuse if sucking eggs here, but Linda, has or has had executive involvement with both BOA & EIG. Given that she was also inline for CEO at Shell, it’s likely that they are backing both the jockey & her horse rather than undermining both.

Maybe spindok your watching too much BBC. Get out in the garden & enjoy the sunshine.

So your looking forward to right on Sir Keir Starmer as the new big dog. If you’ve been around as long as me you should know they are all odd ball egotists, driven by a weird need for power. They are all as bad as each other, beware what you wish for.

Nice thought Pelle, fingers crossed long term loyalty is finally rewarded.

Why the relegation to 60p, wasn’t £1 the exit?

I hope your proven right kewjosh, but unfortunately nothing in this life is that simple. Having said that at the current SP, HBR is priced to fail. Crazy cheap.

Anyone remember Wimpy (builders not burgers). In the financial crisis sp dropped to 5p, then climbed back to £2 ish. Hopefully we have got through our existential crisis which builders went through & valuations will start to relate to assets/fcf rather than hysteria surrounding this critical industry. Mind I’m not in wimpy now.

The SPR is unable to release more than 1m bpd,, so in practical terms not sure what difference this will make, other than Biden virtue signalling.