Many years ago I worked for a company managed by Gerry Robinson. A real sharp cookie, one of his astute comments that sticks in my mind is that you only have to make a few big decisions in your life to do well. Unless I’m wide of the mark PMO could be one of those decisions. In the last recession Wimpy went from 5p to £2. Arm from 15p to £18. ( just a couple that standout in my mind).
Js88, when the bp etc deal was originally announced the sp jumped to 120. Other than the collapse in crude, which imo will steadily strengthen (Saudis need 85usd to balance their books & shale need at least usd45 to break even), nothing has fundamentally changed with this company. Just a massive market over reaction, but I guess this is when those with liquidity make fortunes.
Also Kenni, if the market gets a sniff that ARCM need to close out, there will be a bear squeeze. On the other hand maybe they are hoping to buy some cheap equity from TD, which they can then return to the lenders. Interesting stuff, but all will become apparent soon.
IMO there have been some great posts over the last few days. No ramping or deramping stuff, just hard graft numbers & inciteful info. Thanks to all & as HMHn says don’t waste a recession. Just wish I had a bit more dry powder to take advantage of sale prices
RE: Leashed - pressure’s building26 May 2020 10:43
I don’t like the games ARCM are playing with a FTSE company, but maybe good will come out of it. They will have forced TD to reduce the debt quicker than maybe he intended & in conjunction with this virus hopefully he’ll renegotiate better terms for the BP deal etc at what is arguably the bottom of the cycle. Silver lining to most clouds.
IEA are now forecasting that peak demand is years away. Last month you couldn’t give crude away. Foundations are I believe in place for a big rally, maybe GS are not wrong in predicting 65usd barrel next year.
RE: Energy Voice: Market overreacted to ‘bump in the road’ for Hurricane25 May 2020 16:22
Agree, Bloobird & those same analysts give target prices. All a joke, but agree with HUR sitting on a minimum 500m oilfield to see the sp. decimated on Friday was a joke. But there again I guess these are the moments when fortunes are made (& lost).
Since pmo hit 120 a few months ago, nothing has fundamentally changed with the company. They have great assets & the price of crude will recover. For what it’s worth Goldman are predicting 65 usd next year. This will recover & no doubt the current price will in time look cheap, even if as Hunter suggests it’s currently being held down. Patience will be rewarded.
I agree Hunter, if you remember around the eon deal, when Pmo had little room for manoeuvre, the sp doubled shortly after the financing was revealed to the market. IMO PMO is in a massively better position this time around & I do believe crude prices will gradually strengthen, given that current prices is a country killer for the Saudi & Russians. Shale in general also needs usd55 to be economic. When Trump praises higher prices it is telling. I wish I had more dry powder, but there again let’s see how the asset buys turn out.
IMO, it’s crazy how PMO & Enq sp’s have been hammered given that both companies will more than break even & possibly better this year, given that many, many companies that will be loss making this year have not taken the sp hits like they have. Talk about efficient markets, irrational more like.
Correct, for it to work you need to return/buyback the shares at a lower price than you paid for them. Assuming your buying in the open market then buying pressure, particularly if you hold a big short (as well as being deceitfully undisclosed, because if you can believe it ARCM didn’t understand the rules) will increase sp, opposite effect of a big sell. Holding a short costs, so I guess ARCM will at some point close, pre Covid, they were well out of the money, but still plenty to play for & if crude given all the production cutbacks & economy’s reopening, it gradually returns to mean value things will start to getting interesting. I am hoping that ARCM get a bloody nose, but there again I’m long.
Kraken, A’s sure as day follows night, crude prices will continue to strengthen. The current price is in nobody’s interests & massively destabilising. Demand & supply will rebalance & like you I believe usd50 is the absolute minimum target that most producers need to justify investment. It’s just about timing. A tsunami of printed money is going to hit the world to kick start economy’s. IMO all assets will rise with the tide & especially crude. If TD pulls everything off, this SP has the potential to rocket.