Member Info for Beerbull

Yeah, but quality Telegraph journalism is generally poorly researched & full of lazy comment, no surprise it employed Boris. However, their point on this dysfunctional govt is bang on.

Probably the kiss of death for the sp, but I’m adding once again. Interesting times.

Rookie, because the sp would have spiked massively. IMO although I dislike ARCM it was an elegant solution to clear the short at a massive profit. Back in January they were out of the money big time. Covid & the Saudis helped them massively since then. Lucky or clever, probably a mixture of both.

Still talking about China deal. I guess he is trying to juice the market pre Nov. That was always my thinking but fu**ing Covid put paid to my ideas. Pleased to see kenni et al, benefitting from the sp drop.

Malafuster, your partially correct, they bought approx 80m shares, which they used to reduce their short. Hence their short is circa 6% now. They are out of the mix re the RI. Maybe they have other strategies in place re their short, but that’s their private business. Hopefully they will continue to reduce their short, but there again maybe now it is a valid hedge versus their bond holding?

Malafustet, ARCM don’t hold PMO they are short. So how can they take up their rights. On the other hand the holders may want to take up the rights.

Alfa, JPM tentatively forecast 70usd later this year. I guess it’s called talking ones book.

Aduk, it’s a real shame that you’ve thrown in the towel. Will miss your contributions. All the best compadre

IMO ENQ is still taking on socially distanced passengers at the station, when fully masked & distance down to 1 metre or less then maybe the train will have left. Until recently buying ENQ in the teens was a good bet, I still believe that’s true, (like PMO sub 70p). Enjoy the ride IMO still plenty of time to get onboard.

When this deal was originally announced In January at a cost & Decomm liabilities running into hundreds of additional millions the share price hit 120p. Today we are sitting at 50p with a much much improved deal & Brent rising...The question is where will the price now settle, if we lived in a rational world north of 120p

I agree Tarth, clearly an increase in shares is dilutive, but this deal adds circa 350m usd turn over pa at current prices. No wonder the sp jumped on Friday. Assuming no hiccups could be just the beginning.

Bfc1, yes it’s dilutive.

I don’t know if you guys ever check out the advfn bear pit, but even PMO’s longest standing critic Andyp with caveats is mildly positive about the Bp deal. Shocking news .

On the other hand bfc1 does an asset producing 18k bopd add more to PMO or less regardless of dilution ?

That’s a big assumption bfc1, if Brent continues to strengthen & Pmo approaching 100k bopd & with financing sorted to 2023, it would imo be imprudent to increase the short again from this far out. ARCM only started to build the current short mid/late 2019 & they could have not seen the fallout from Covid, which has helped them enormously. On a different tact, as I’ve already posted, although it sticks in the craw, I think ARCM has saved PMO potentially hundreds of millions usd, by forcing TD to renegotiate the Bp deal & maybe ARCM may now see the company in a different light. Silver lining to every cloud.

I don’t like the ethos of ARCM, but in fairness to them they have forced to TD to focus on debt repayment & would we have got the Bp deal on current terms if they weren’t onboard. I hate to say It but The combination of Covid & Arcm has created an opportunity that TD has exploited.

Hoping, please kindly elaborate

Pmo have a capitalisation of approx 340M USD & the new deal with BP has cut approx with decommissioning costs 750m USD off the purchase price. What am I missing?

For once a positive article re the cut price deal TD has struck with Bp. How times change !

Goldenbadger, Jan 2019 date enables Pmo to book the cash flow on their books utilising their tax losses, but will booked as part payment to Bp for the assets. Other than the 210m usd, rest of payments will flow from cash flow again utilising Pmo tax losses. To me looks like a blinding deal, other than having to pay of ARCM, but at least this deal gets them off TD’s back. Win Win. Having ARCM & Covid has helped TD strike a great deal at the very bottom of the current cycle.