Member Info for Beerbull

Romaron, thanks for calling me an expert, I’m far from that otherwise I’d be smoking a fat cigar in the Caribbean. I don’t invest in Bonds, so no expert unfortunately, nor do I know the management of PMO, but their again I was reading an article by Terry Smith aka fundsmith & reading between the lines it would seem fund managers don’t have the access that we sometimes believe. Personally, I think within 2 years most Oilies will be in a far better space than where we are currently & if I had bigger balls & more funds I would be taking advantage. Cheers & have good weekend.

Romaron, best stick to your Enq opinions, your Pmo analysis is no better than Oliver Gill’s in The Telegraph (ie substance lite).

Not sure I understand you investor. Bp will be paid an additional 300m usd out of cash flow backdated to jan 2019.

Goldenbadger, TD has paid 210m usd for 18000 bopd backdated to jan 2019. Out of cash flow balance of upto 415m Brent price dependent will also be paid to BP. Also decommissioning costs have been significantly reduced. On the face of it looks too good to be true & if that is the case the sp will look like a steal particularly if Brent continues to strengthen, which imo is v likely. The only negative as I see it is how will the purchase price of 210m be funded ?

Seems like a win win, less risky PMO emerging out of all of this. ARCM have done well, but then they have helped to leverage a better deal out of BP. Just need Brent to get back upto 50usd & we’ll be sitting pretty.

Kraken, every board has a village idiot, trouble is that DNOB likes moving across boards. Pity his poor mother.

Thanks McLondoner I’m back up to speed.

Pelle, 25 or 33. Do explain. Cheers

40usd bopd is a non starter for the majority of the worlds producers. 50usd is marginal. The point I’m trying to make is that pure economics will drive crude higher, sometimes it’s hard to see the wood from the trees, but in time imo we’ll all look back & wonder why we didn’t go all in at these prices. The only factor holding me back with PMO is how they will get the Hongkongers off their backs & the terms of the new assets. Assuming TD does a good deal on the back of this virus, I will add to my holdings and enjoy the ride up as crude gradually returns to its medium term average.

35usd is the fcf target price needed for 2020. Every additional dollar adds an additional 10m usd to free cash flow. Assuming crude holds current price over 50m usd of fcf has been added to 2020 (in less than a week). Maybe talk of covenant issues is once again fake news.
The next nut to crack is 50 usd interesting times.

The market liked the original deal that TD struck for the assets that would take production over 100k bopd, utilise tax credits & bring forward debt pay down. All things being equal assuming TD renogiates a sweeter deal, now with rising crude & getting ARCM off his back the sp jump should be interesting.

Dbno i admire you Canute like qualities. Just by constantly saying that oil is heading south ain’t a strategy to make it happen though.

Squif who says they have to balance their books ? Having said that I think it’s fair to say that below usd50 oil is generally uneconomic.

Gill, has gone strangely quiet on the PMO front, maybe ARCM are not paying enough. I am expecting an ill informed piece soon, just hope he understands this time that dollars are different to pounds.

Kind of ironic hong kongers want the UK govt to help save them from a communist takeover, yet ARCM are trying their damndest to screw over a strategic UK asset. Funny old world.

Many years ago I worked for a company managed by Gerry Robinson. A real sharp cookie, one of his astute comments that sticks in my mind is that you only have to make a few big decisions in your life to do well. Unless I’m wide of the mark PMO could be one of those decisions. In the last recession Wimpy went from 5p to £2. Arm from 15p to £18. ( just a couple that standout in my mind).

Js88, when the bp etc deal was originally announced the sp jumped to 120. Other than the collapse in crude, which imo will steadily strengthen (Saudis need 85usd to balance their books & shale need at least usd45 to break even), nothing has fundamentally
changed with this company. Just a massive market over reaction, but I guess this is when those with liquidity make fortunes.

Average is average in the 70’s

Also Kenni, if the market gets a sniff that ARCM need to close out, there will be a bear squeeze. On the other hand maybe they are hoping to buy some cheap equity from TD, which they can then return to the lenders. Interesting stuff, but all will become apparent soon.

IMO there have been some great posts over the last few days. No ramping or deramping stuff, just hard graft numbers & inciteful info. Thanks to all & as HMHn says don’t waste a recession. Just wish I had a bit more dry powder to take advantage of sale prices