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I don’t like the games ARCM are playing with a FTSE company, but maybe good will come out of it. They will have forced TD to reduce the debt quicker than maybe he intended & in conjunction with this virus hopefully he’ll renegotiate better terms for the BP deal etc at what is arguably the bottom of the cycle. Silver lining to most clouds.

IEA are now forecasting that peak demand is years away. Last month you couldn’t give crude away. Foundations are I believe in place for a big rally, maybe GS are not wrong in predicting 65usd barrel next year.

Agree, Bloobird & those same analysts give target prices. All a joke, but agree with HUR sitting on a minimum 500m oilfield to see the sp. decimated on Friday was a joke. But there again I guess these are the moments when fortunes are made (& lost).

Since pmo hit 120 a few months ago, nothing has fundamentally changed with the company. They have great assets & the price of crude will recover. For what it’s worth Goldman are predicting 65 usd next year. This will recover & no doubt the current price will in time look cheap, even if as Hunter suggests it’s currently being held down. Patience will be rewarded.

I agree Hunter, if you remember around the eon deal, when Pmo had little room for manoeuvre, the sp doubled shortly after the financing was revealed to the market. IMO PMO is in a massively better position this time around & I do believe crude prices will gradually strengthen, given that current prices is a country killer for the Saudi & Russians. Shale in general also needs usd55 to be economic. When Trump praises higher prices it is telling. I wish I had more dry powder, but there again let’s see how the asset buys turn out.

IMO, it’s crazy how PMO & Enq sp’s have been hammered given that both companies will more than break even & possibly better this year, given that many, many companies that will be loss making this year have not taken the sp hits like they have. Talk about efficient markets, irrational more like.

Correct, for it to work you need to return/buyback the shares at a lower price than you paid for them. Assuming your buying in the open market then buying pressure, particularly if you hold a big short (as well as being deceitfully undisclosed, because if you can believe it ARCM didn’t understand the rules) will increase sp, opposite effect of a big sell. Holding a short costs, so I guess ARCM will at some point close, pre Covid, they were well out of the money, but still plenty to play for & if crude given all the production cutbacks & economy’s reopening, it gradually returns to mean value things will start to getting interesting. I am hoping that ARCM get a bloody nose, but there again I’m long.

Kenni, IMO sentiment & confidence returning to crude. Just need to get the HKong monkeys off our back & fingers crossed this patch will pass, as everything does.

Kraken, A’s sure as day follows night, crude prices will continue to strengthen. The current price is in nobody’s interests & massively destabilising. Demand & supply will rebalance & like you I believe usd50 is the absolute minimum target that most producers need to justify investment. It’s just about timing. A tsunami of printed money is going to hit the world to kick start economy’s. IMO all assets will rise with the tide & especially crude. If TD pulls everything off, this SP has the potential to rocket.

Kraken, it’s called talking ones book. I guess we are all guilty of it.

Even with the current price of crude, on my rough calcs given 30% of 2020 production is hedged at 60usd, we are currently looking at an average of 43usd for the year. Not too shabby .

ARCM, always good to read alternative opinions, I’m curious to what you see as the solution? Cheers

Good posts grippa, if TD can line everything up & it’s a big if, then like the Eon deal, he’ll be buying Assets near the bottom of this cycle. I know it’s always seems like jam tomorrow with Pmo, but corona & the Saudi hissy fit are in my view blackish swan events. Once he gets the ARCM monkey off his back, hopefully it will be jam & loads of it to look forward to. All the best & remember if it doesn’t kill you it makes you stronger. Fingers crossed TD comes through.

Londoner, one things for sure there will be cashflow, unlike many companies who have been locked down.

Romaron, Covid deaths a sensitive subject, but NHS data shows that there have been 33 reported deaths in people under the age of 40. If the govt used the same lockdown criteria for road deaths, road usage would be banned.

SK, until this virus sent the world in convulsions, In 3 years TD has cut Debt by 800 m usd, Catcher paid for itself within 2 years & all other major projects are coming in under budget. In the medium term this virus could be a blessing for PMO, demand for crude will build, but some of the supply will never return, IMO TD now has the means to renegotiate the acquisitions, which like other TD buys have Proven to be steals & that’s not forgetting the tax credits. Fundamentally PMO has great strengths, but at the moment SK your choosing to ignore.

Well What a rollercoaster since Pmo hit 1.20 only a short while ago, when it looked like higher was a reasonable assumption. Hopefully we are past the worst & once TD has tied up some significant loose ends the future should be interesting. in the words of George Harrison ‘ All things must pass’

Somekindofnut, IMO this whole opec/Russia tiff, will need to be resolved without anyone losing face & therein lies the challenge. Opec & Russia won’t kill shale, at best they will put it to sleep for a while, because surely as day follows night once crude prices pick up so will shale production. I also believe Trump irregardles of crude prices-sees shale as a strategic asset & if push comes to shove I wouldn’t he surprised seeing the US govt underwriting the whole shooting match. I can’t believe that opec / Russia will ever take shale out or they believe they can, hence my bemusement at what’s currently taking place.

Don’t forget PMO have some terrific assets, Catcher , big p , Tolmount & Zama. IMO TD has done a solid job & believe it or not, PMO has lower breakevens across their estate than many of the majors.
Cmon big Tone Time to step up & show us what you can do, I for one believe in 6 months this will have blown over.

No doubt acquisitions will be put on hold, until their is visibility on POO. Assuming courts rubber stamp refinancing, TD will have plenty of breathing space. This volatility will pass & imo this is the time when fortunes are made.