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As I noted in our Annual Report, 2023 was a year in which the Group achieved some key milestones and 2024 has started well. We are on track with our plans for the current year which will build the platform for further future growth.
Key to this remains the development of Coringa and the installation of the crushing plant and ore-sorter which is a significant element in the growth of the Group’s gold production for 2025 and thereafter. The ore-sorter cleared Brazilian customs during April and I am now pleased to report that it has arrived at site and work on the necessary civil works for its installation and commissioning later this year are underway. At the same time the crushing plant is also being prepared for installation.
Since the publication of our Annual Report at the end of April there has been little further movement in the licencing process. The latest version of the Indigenous Impact Study (“ECI”) has been submitted to the government agency for indigenous communities (“FUNAI”) as we continue the steps required in the consultation process with those indigenous communities.
In the past week I met with representatives of the Instituto Kabu, an association of the Kayapó Mebêngôrokre Indigenous community from the Baú and Menkragnoti Indigenous Lands, situated in the state of Para. It was a good conversation allowing us to further our understanding of the issues faced by the indigenous communities and assist in identifying solutions that can help meet their needs.
Whilst we have challenges ahead and the next six months will be pivotal in our plans, we have a dedicated and experienced team to steer us through this. I look forward to reporting further progress on 13 June.
The matters being considered at the 2024 Annual General Meeting, as set out in the Notice, are items that are routinely considered at such meetings.
I am very much looking forward to meeting with shareholders at the AGM and having the opportunity to discuss with them my hopes and expectations for Serabi for the coming years.
What do you make of this?
I have topped up today,my biggest holding by far. Far too cheap for the cash generation and prospects. 150p is my target for this year. Underpinned by so much cash generation,with huge prospects going forward.
Everything appears to be going to plan. It seems to me from this and interviews with management, that Serabi is aiming to run itself to the standards of a major producer. You got to act like the company you want to become. If they achieve a good reputation within the Brazilian government and indigenous community for the thoughtful way they have approached the indigenous concerns, I sense their plan is to prove themselves a premiere Brazilian expert mine development team. With the cash being generated by Serabi, I should think they will look to make some acquisitions of partly developed mines (like Coringa) and grow into a better size, before a buyout by a major sometime down the line and cashing in a healthy profit on their shares.
These are my thoughts based on what I have read/ heard.
A decline of over 12% so far today, on the back of a fall yesterday, is a bit alarming. What are we missing??
Savage drop on small volume is this Market MAKERS TRYING TO SHAKE THE TREE’. Whatever yoúre missing I2m missing it
Well I've just added under 58p, unless there's bad news we don't know this drop seems senseless with POG at $2350/oz
Can't fault your logic HarChris, if I wasn't over my skiis already I'd be joining you.
HarChris, there was bad news - the lack of progress with the license. This suggests the process has stalled.
Sure, little progress made in the past few weeks, is that such a disaster?
As things stand they at least have over 2 and half months on the trial licence as a worst case scenario, if they focused on cash accumulation over that time they will be sitting on more net cash than the current market cap by some distance so even if the full licence wasn't granted they'd have optionality and deserve a valuation a little higher than what it is currently still.
I's appreciate the fall if already at £80m mcap but not at £50m
What 2.5 months are you referring to? The Coringa operating licence was extended by 3 years in January
Is a trial license conditional to an open & ongoing application for a full license? If the full license is formally rejected, what's the basis for a trial license. It cant be purely a for the commercial interests of the applicant?
I don't know the answer to these questions. The next six months "are pivotal", which I interpret to mean very good or very bad.
I meant two and a half years, not months, sorry.
I agree with Harchris' analysis. The next six months will determine whether a long term licence will be awarded. If it is Coringa can be fully developed and the company will be worth a lot more. If the licence is not awarded, the company can still run for (just under) three more years at Coringa and exhaust the Palito mine (six years or so) and generate cash (for dividends) well in excess of the current market cap. So although the next six months are pivotal, it remains a good investment whatever.
If the license is rejected at best the trial license can run its three years. This may equate to 25,0000 ounces which might generate USD15M. If the business is only then producing 30,000 from Palito, it wouldn't be a viable on going concern. If they had a major discovery the business could survive with additional funding.
The issue is Hodgson. He blows too much smoke.
If they only have 30 months to run, they'd not build a crusher. The ore sorter would add some value but barely cover its cost in raising the grade of the trucked ore, to the Palito plant.
A few months ago the CEO stated the license was hoped for by the end of Q2. More recently he mentioned it was hoped for in 2024. The Chairmans message today said that no progress has been made recently. I don't believe that they wanted to publish this message today, however, they would have been required to, if they had a negative discussion. The meeting with the Chairman and the Locals clearly wasn't private.
Geezer are you not ignoring the profits from Palito. Let's assume worst case with Coringa limited to three years, they should be able to mine at least 150k oz over the next 6 years. At current POG and AISC at around $1500-$1600, that still gives you a profit over $100m.
Late last year he assured shareholders, SRB would get the license. In his latest interview, he mentions they'll received the installation license in coincidence with the new PEA IN Q3. Even he has said, the future of Serabi is Coringa. At this point, I'd be happy to see him go.
I would assume a much higher AISC if only Palito is producing. Even if you are correct its USD16M / Year.
All aspects should be considered,but, to downgrade the s.p. on a statement that was probably meant as neutral,rather than negative is clearly wrong,at this stupendously low valuation of a company throwing mega amounts of cash off. Very little risk at this goldprice,and huge upside possible. Mega cheap share.
I respect your opinion but don't agree.
Pedro, you are Mike incarnate. Loves to blow smoke. This company needs to be more transparent with what the issues are with this license.
They have tried their best to be transparent with todays statement....Market is super skittish to downgrade a cash rich cash machine rated on a pittance,for just being straightforward with investors. I can sense some posters trying to be especially negative,when the company is transforming into a mega cash machine,completely underpinned by performance.