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Started: DennisThePennis, 15 Jun 2024 22:27
Last post: DennisThePennis, 15 Jun 2024 22:27
It's just a question of when.
I'm staying invested. It might be 6 months. It might be 2 years. But sooner or later, SQZ share price is going to double.
Started: VanVan, 15 Jun 2024 13:35
Last post: VanVan, 15 Jun 2024 13:35
Started: NoQuestionMarks, 14 Jun 2024 15:52
Last post: upomega, 15 Jun 2024 07:18
Here is my response coming from a lth.
Oik star,,mer the war criminal supporter of mas slaughter together with its stooges w...krr mill..bnd ruskiie are criminals and should in the whats is left in the ruins of gb should be investigated by our security services. that is if they actually believe in the soverinty of GB any more. onmho,dyor etc
Yes, cast iron and covered in titanium etc. Triple Lock springs to mind. Dumped that at one point didn't the tories.
When carefully reviewing Kier Starmer’s words/history, there will highly likely be some potential restraints in this respect (O&G) by Labour going forward but it will only come after the elections and certainly nothing before; as we all know by experience, there are no legal obligations (apart from the electorate) for the parties to fully abide by their pre-election stated manifestos!
David Whitehouse, CEO Offshore Energies UK comments:
“Wealth creation is at the core of the Labour party’s manifesto and we believe the fastest path to that economic growth is by choosing a homegrown energy transition.
“While we share Labour’s ambition to make the UK a green energy superpower, the path to success is building on our existing industrial strengths and our 200,000 skilled people.
“An affordable net zero needs both renewables and our homegrown oil and gas sector. Ramping up more carbon intensive imports from abroad will not bring down energy bills for consumers or attract the investment and skills we need to decarbonise our economy.
“We’re concerned by proposals to end new oil and gas licences in UK waters. We are explaining to all parties that we need the churn of new licences for a successful homegrown energy transition, to safeguard jobs and our energy security and create the investment conditions firms need to stay here in the UK.
“We also need a globally competitive tax framework based on fair returns; windfall taxes undermine this. Labour has big ambitions and we need an investment environment to match.
“Labour’s manifesto carries many important proposals for our sector. We are ready to work to deliver a positive future for everyone in the UK. One where we reach net zero, grow the economy and support jobs and communities.”
https://oeuk.org.uk/oeuk-responds-to-labour-party-manifesto/
Started: sasa43, 14 Jun 2024 10:41
Last post: flexmw, 14 Jun 2024 18:14
A couple of big old late trades showing up… interesting to see if anything shows up from them…
Date Time Trade Prc Volume Buy/Sell Value
14-Jun-24 15:26:38 144.5165 500,000 Unknown* 722.58k O
14-Jun-24 15:07:37 144.30 548,553 Unknown * 791.56k O
Sasa,
Morning,
Not sure about 'reducing', but there is certainly movement !
16th April reported holding was 29,484,410 currently shown on SQZ being reported as 29,484,333
https://www.serica-energy.com/shareholder-information
Guess they could be trading their pot too or just lax reporting by SQZ, take your pick !
aimo & dyor
Either off mkt or directly in small parcels to explain yesterday's sharp drop?
At under 150p 'cum divd' right now, we're already 'cheaper than chips' yielding 15% odd - the new CEO takes charge in a fortnight's time and one can only hope he and the revamped BoD have something dramatic in hand to address the situation, like genuinely having an overseas target in mind, to restore confidence ; sentiment is all with these AIM shs, as we all know... sasa.
Started: surprised, 14 Jun 2024 11:27
Last post: Kokomo, 14 Jun 2024 12:09
Excellent News/RNS, always good to see the BoD adding/buying in here.
That’s Great but still no let up in keeping this firmly down on the floor and below … anyone know who’s behind it, one entity or a combo ?
Serica Energy plc (AIM: SQZ), confirms that the following Persons Discharging Managerial Responsibilities ("PDMRs") have each purchased ordinary shares in the Company.
David Latin Chairman & Interim CEO 14 June 2024 bought 14,500 @144.7132p
Martin Copeland CFO 14 June 2024 bought 11,000 @ 145.1484p
Last post: Kokomo, 14 Jun 2024 11:21
Interesting reading:
JUN 09, 2024
Serica Energy: tradition meets modernity
An old-style UK company changing course with a solid balance sheet
https://zerogcos.substack.com/p/serica-energy-tradition-meets-modernity
Kokomo,
Thanks for that, although I think you already know this but will post this extract from their site anyhow :
"Notice: We no longer track disclosures after they drop below 0.5%. It is possible that the manager still holds a short position even if we are showing it as zero.."
Only takes one or two funds to decided to pack attack this (or many other shares) to achieve their goal without getting anywhere near 0.5% disclosure. Anyone with Bloomberg Terminal would see what I mean. On the plus-side, they will need to buyback before ex-div, 27 Jun 2024 (Thu) imo.
aimo & dyor
For some reason my last post got chopped off !!
Our BOE P2 reserves now valued at less than $5 boe, even on NS metrics, that's low, pity we aren't valued at the deal we did for TW.
AIMO & DYOR
There are also NO newly formed (or even existing/old) disclosed short positions in SQZ at the moment and hence, SQZ Short positions currently stand at 0%.
https://www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B0CY5V57/
Upomega,
I also added a few to my trading pot but still much prefer HBR atm, so added there too, as they have a plan and are visibly executing it, whereas SQZ, well ... errrr !!!
Yes, shorting attack took place yesterday imo. No new news, been public knowledge about Labour's plans for some time now, Mr Market just took its opportunity on release of manifesto to extract the pips as juice has long since dried up. RSI is one of many indicators and does matter afaic.
Our BOE P2 reserves now valued at
Started: Mommur, 13 Jun 2024 16:34
Last post: davethehorse, 14 Jun 2024 09:07
It's in free fall, no idea when it will get a support level, stearing well clear for now...
Come on guys it’s not rocket science here. The whole country has been paying massive energy bills and the oil companies have taken the blame in the media. These are easy votes to mop up. When Labour gets in the reality will be that they can’t and won’t kill the oil industry and they will back pedal. By then the focus will be on interest rates coming down and the fickle public will have forgotten all about the nasty naughty oil companies.
It was a great day I bought loads of Serica shares at a ridiculously low price. Bought more this morning but I’m running hour of other shares I want to sell to raise funds. I’m well over weight with SQZ now but surely a pre divi rise is inevitable the only way I will sell some now is if we don’t get a rise pre divi as it sure help will drop after. I intend to carry a lot of these shares around 15% of my portfolio for at least 2 years. This is an absolute bargain price.
" This is just one of the many car crashes under labour and people will still vote them... So frustrating"
Jeffrey, you could replace Labour with Tories in that sentence and according to polls, 80% of the country would agree with it 😂
Latest YouGov poll now puts Reform ahead of Tories. If this development bemuses you, then you must have been doing an ostrich impression for the last decade and a half.
Although the writing was on the wall for NS oil years ago, I suspect Labour will probably water their threats down when in office. Almost everyone does.
Mommur,
Need to change your avatar to 'Wolfie Smith', lol
Seriously though, heads need bashing together and knock some sense into these idiots many of whom have never had a 'real' job so have no concept of what it takes to run a business, let alone one as complicated in terms of financial stability required to run an 0&G company.
If BP are looking to decom fields, then it would follow why not do a BKR style deal for them push out the decom in return for revenue, but would need to be a hum-dinger of a deal for anyone to taken it one given where we are today. Step forward SQZ, $1boe reserves and they will have a deal.
aimo & dyor
Started: DennisThePennis, 14 Jun 2024 07:08
Last post: Thebold, 14 Jun 2024 08:42
Yea ABZ is now officially the Dundee of the 70s/80s, where the old joke of what is the best part of the city being the road out if it rings true.
Funnily enough Dundee is now booming in comparison , property prices increasing and massive non oil and gas investment.
In politicians speak the majority of people in Aberdeenshire really care - its pretty sobering for rich and poor as Union Street becomes a line of charity shops and house prices plummet. I might add that house prices have been static for the last 14 years with no growth and flats in the city in negative equity.
Its beginning to look like Barrow in Furness, Blackpool, Billingham, Teeside, Grimsby and Hull to name a few.
Sobering - its enough to turn us all to drink!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Its a big issue to us because we are invested. But the GB public are less impacted and majority dont care about the O&G industry. That the sobering truth
As I’ve said before, a press release needs to be issued on behalf of all North Sea producers stating how Labour’s manifesto plans will impact the industry, investments, jobs, energy security and carbon emissions.
This needs to be crystal clear to the voting public since at present everyone seems to believe Labour will be punishing the greedy “oil giants” while setting up the wonderful GB Energy and we’ll all be enjoying an infinite supply of cheap, clean energy.
Why can’t a body like OEUK get the truth onto the front page of every national newspaper? Why can’t trade unions have more influence? Do they really understand the impact?
Started: Kokomo, 14 Jun 2024 07:26
Last post: Kokomo, 14 Jun 2024 07:26
Standard Chartered: Oil Markets Will Soon Face Significant Supply Deficits
StanChart has forecast 1.68 mb/d growth in 2024 and 1.41 mb/d in 2025.
StanChart has reiterated its previous assessment that not only can the markets absorb the extra barrels by OPEC+ producers but that a deficit is likely to appear in the latter part of the current year and carry over to 2025.
Following the post-OPEC+ meeting selloff, Standard Chartered pointed out that there’s no justification for selling at a pace that even surpasses during the pandemic.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Standard-Chartered-Oil-Markets-Will-Soon-Face-Significant-Supply-Deficits.html
My rough estimate and very rough is just over one hundred million per year profit,but that's not taking into account capital ex now that labour will withdraw tax refund. Hopefully Serica will withdraw all capex until it is clear from labour when they will withdraw it. Inmv
Does anyone have a FCF estimate for 2025 based on expected tax rate of 78% and the removal of investment allowance against the EPL?
Also, any detail on how long the tax losses will last based on the current forward curve?
Current thoughts are that SQZ should still be able to return a decent level of FCF whilst the company has tax losses to utilise (I’m aware they can’t be used to offset the EPL).
I’ll be digging into the numbers, but just wanted a head start if someone’s already done the number crunching.
Last post: steven49, 14 Jun 2024 03:39
This company's share price been on fall 4 least 18 months since hitting dizzy heights 4.50
Started: zebbo, 13 Jun 2024 21:59
Last post: zebbo, 13 Jun 2024 21:59
100 grumpy investors will not change what is about to happen thanks to Labour
"We" aka the BoD know the writing is on the wall and has been for the last 12 months. They should have moved faster.
Last post: surprised, 13 Jun 2024 21:52
The below should read
If ever there was a disconnect between a profitable, cash generating, divi paying business and it's share price, today is it !
The oil/gas will keep flowing and SQZ tax losses will ensure profits and cash continue and by the time the 'offset losses' run out SQZ should be operating outside the UK if Labour do not row back on their talk.
If ever there was a diconnect between a profitable, cash generating, divi paying business and it's share price, today is it !
Unique and frustrating times with incompetent politicians of all main parties damaging UK business and more. The UK needs much better.
Not sure if anyone has picked up on this.
Labour has stated that the National Interest claus will remain during a national crisis. In other words they will simply nationalise the energy industry if they feel it nescessary to keep oil and gas flowing. This to me is now the biggest fret in terms of Sericas independance. What is a major concern is that should they suddenly decide to nationalise for whatever reason there would be no premium on the share price. So maybe one option is for Serica to split of its UK assets once they find an overseas one. inmv
Started: Kokomo, 13 Jun 2024 15:41
Last post: Kokomo, 13 Jun 2024 20:34
Also noteworthy here that UK and European Gas prices have both been recently rising very nicely:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities
Agree, if the just hold the dividend until end of upcoming parliament, you would get almost 100% return of capital.
SQz generation of cash and available allowances is way undervalued atm, clarification of “loopholes “ will give us a real idea on where we stand… for me it has to be better than feared
With all that’s going on globally (Serious lack of O&G industry investment and alternatives), O&G will have it’s day sooner rather than later, and although my first choice is HBR for it’s upcoming diversity in every aspect however, SQZ is Now Clearly Way Too Undervalued/Oversold to Just Ignore!
Great company/prospects, so I’m In, GLA.
Started: Kokomo, 13 Jun 2024 20:28
Last post: Kokomo, 13 Jun 2024 20:28
28 May 2024
Yahoo Finance: “These cheap UK shares look way too good to ignore right now”
A young dividend powerhouse
Serica Energy (LSE: SQZ) is an energy company that prospects for oil and gas opportunities in the UK. Its share price hasn’t exactly been mind-blowing lately – in fact, it’s down a rather painful 22% in the past year.
But in 2022 it did quite well and now its good fortune may be returning.
The company has just been granted approval to develop the Belinda subsea oil field in the North Sea. It also took on a new CEO this month and has attracted the attention of major broker Jefferies, which put in a Buy rating for the stock on 16 May.
The real value, however, is the exceptionally high 13% dividend yield.
The next ex-dividend date is 26 June, with a payment of 14p per share set for 24 July. That certainly makes the £1.77 shares more attractive. Payments have been sporadic though and aren’t well covered by cash flows so there’s no guarantee they will continue.
Still, I think the company has potential. Based on future cash flow estimates it could be undervalued by as much as 36%. There is good consensus analysts among that the price could rise by 64% in the coming 12 months (but as we know, that doesn’t mean it will rise).
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/cheap-uk-shares-look-way-062300664.html
Started: ICB888, 13 Jun 2024 19:32
Last post: DennisThePennis, 13 Jun 2024 20:19
ICB888, all true and agreed but public narrative promoted by politicians and the media is that oil and gas companies are greedy, polluting and need to be taxed more. No one is prepared to challenge the narrative and tell the truth about energy security, jobs, net tax revenue, or net emissions.
It's a massive act of self-destruction for the UK but so be it.
Looking forward to SQZ announcing a shift overseas soon.
Climate Hysteria is a term used by a lot of well regarded US commentators and I much prefer it to socialist climate crisis and climate emergency. Let’s start with some facts. More than 80% of global power is produced by fossil fuels and that is not going to change anytime soon. It is completely impossible for renewables to replace fossil fuels for decades if ever. All these so called fact checkers employed by the left wing media like BBC ITV Sky should be able to announce that the UK being renewable only by 2030 is an absolute impossibility and a lie. Sun not shining as happens every night and wind not blowing and there is very little renewable power and fossil fuels have to kick in to keep the lights on.
I am a big fan of renewables and in these summer months with my solar panels and Tesla Powerwall I take very little from the grid and supply it on occasions. In the winter it’s a very different story and the solar can’t fully recharge the battery.
My point is that we have to take a balanced and realistic approach recognising that Renewables have an important part to play but they can’t do it on their own. Destroying the energy security in very troubled times that we can have from the North Sea will be an act of economic sabotage by Starmer and Miliband( remember what a left wing climate nutter he was). They are a danger to this country just remember how relying on Russian gas in Europe sent our energy prices sky high.
This alone should make sure that people don’t vote for the socialist Labour Party or anyone else that would result in a Labour Government being returned.
Before a previous election when there was a possibility of a Labour victory The Sun had a headline “ Will the last person to leave Britain please turn the lights out”. Well just remember if Labour try and implement Great British Energy wasting £18.6 Billion the lights will be going off regularly as renewables only just can’t keep the lights on.
NET ZERO IS MARXISM THROUGH THE BACK DOOR.
Do not in anyway be persuaded or influenced by these CC clowns
Please stop denying climate science.. It's offensive.
What climate science is that, the ones paid to produce the result you want, you can get plenty of funding if you are trying to prove global warming etc but no funding and kicked out and cancelled if you end up proving it does not exist or is not man made and they call this science.
That would be the same state sponsored science re covid and "vaccines" ...what are you doing on this chat anyway Mr "I'm on my 7th jabs" Legache
Yeh the same ones that faked the moon landings - lol
"dont be fooled by the popular press."
--------
Yeah, those guys at NASA, always making stuff up...
Started: pb1943, 13 Jun 2024 18:41
Last post: pb1943, 13 Jun 2024 18:41
Nobody seems to mention volcanic eruptions and climate change.For instance I wonder how much heat and gas has been emitted by the ongoing Icelandic eruptions and what would it equate to fossil fuel emissions?
Started: handybrownone, 13 Jun 2024 17:41
Last post: handybrownone, 13 Jun 2024 17:41
What it actually says is "Crucially, oil and gas production in the North Sea will be with us for decades to come, and the North Sea will be managed in a way that does not jeopardise jobs. And our offshore workers will lead the world in the industries of the future.
We will not issue new licences to explore new fields because they will not take a penny off bills, cannot make us energy secure, and will only accelerate the worsening climate crisis."
Last post: dadean, 13 Jun 2024 17:07
I personally think Labour are talking tough on the north sea now, get the woke vote, then they'll delay or water down some of the policy if they get in. There must be some organisations that have sway on labour
nothing has changed other than mr market taking the ****. nbp is up today alongside brent and our cashflow is good, so unless we have mercuria voting against the dividend it's a given, although we will probably drop to circa @130p/s ex-div.
aimo & dyor
Under the circumstances, whats the chance of the 14p Final Divi (xd 27/6) being scrapped at the AGM (27/6) ?
We are going to be faced with a landslide winning Labour government, a whitewash
Who is going to stand up in parliament and hold Starmer and co to account, not the Conservatives they are finished (for now)
Atleast Farage would be a constant fly in their ear, could we see Reform gain second position.. You wouldn't rule it out
The u.k. public are being conned in to thinking that B.P. and shell are getting taxed to the hilt for assets in u.k. waters when they have very limited rigs there, or there to thick see by starmers lies.
When I look at sericas pre tax profits & the post tax profits it would bring tears to a glass eye.
I'm beginning to like nigel farage BTW.
Started: dadean, 13 Jun 2024 16:12
Last post: dadean, 13 Jun 2024 16:12
Well I personally sent in a flurry of (small) buy orders on multiple platforms, I generally believe in the Co and it's future so if that's the case back it up! Time will tell
Started: surprised, 13 Jun 2024 15:46
Last post: surprised, 13 Jun 2024 15:46
Well it is mispriced now 🤬..the sp's dropped but the business is solid and no doubt poised to leave @UKLabour
tax regime, new CEO starts 1.07.24
https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1801259168688452010
Started: NoQuestionMarks, 13 Jun 2024 15:09
Last post: NoQuestionMarks, 13 Jun 2024 15:09
On a dreadful day, I though we could do with a little lift.
It is little known that the ESIM was re-calculated on the 1st of April 2024. Policy paper reads "These thresholds will be adjusted from 1 April 2024, and annually thereafter, by the preceding December Consumer Prices Index figure."
CPI in December was 4.0% so the new thresholds should be $74.26 per barrel for oil and 56.16p/therm for NG.
Not exactly a Woohoo moment and Labour could and possibly will amend the legislation if oil and gas prices trend downwards.
It is a glimmer of gold in a heap of poop, probably just the wrapper from a Caramac, but it's there all the same.
Last post: surprised, 13 Jun 2024 14:45
The dividend is not dependant on the share price and cash flow has been good as far as we know and SQZ are planning longer term as on 24.05.24
''Serica Energy plc (AIM: SQZ) announces that the Company has granted nil-cost options over a total of 1,291,130 ordinary shares in accordance with the rules of the Serica Energy plc 2017 Long Term Incentive Plan ("LTIP").
The total awards above include a nil-cost option over a total of 274,574 ordinary shares of US$0.10 each to the Company's Chief Financial Officer as set out in the table
The awards are subject to performance vesting criteria that are designed to incentivise performance that delivers value for all shareholders.
The performance vesting criteria include sliding scale measures of share price performance and of relative total shareholder return performance , in each case, in respect of a three year period ending at the end of April 2027; in respect of 2024, 2025 and 2026. For the awards to vest in full, the 90 day end average share price must be at least equal to 400p''
Oh err, sub 150p....:-(
Nm
Started: surprised, 13 Jun 2024 09:40
Last post: Maverick7, 13 Jun 2024 14:28
Unless the new CEO is the labour leader or that idiot Ed Millband, i wouldnt be holding any North Sea stocks this side of the election or before we hear if Labours rhetoric is going to be implemented.
I am half tempted to vote for that other idiot Farage
We may wake up one day to the announcement that Serica acquires Sval Energi or NEO Energy. We shouldn’t fool ourselves thinking that there is a done deal, it could go the other way and be acquired by Aker BP. Although, I’m sure of one thing, Serica will make a huge acquisition soon. Is 2024 feasible? I don’t know, but I think it is very likely that something will be closed during 2024.
The strategy that the new management is applying is crystal clear to me, they will extract all value left in the British assets they already own, but the focus is on expanding outside the UK. This is something they share with Harbour Energy, another company where I’m invested at the moment.
the market isn’t pricing in any potential new deal, but the new team seems to be fitted for that task. I think Serica’s share price could provide an interesting return in the next 12 months just by continuing drilling its low-risk redevelopment opportunities and distributing dividends and buying-back shares. In the case that it manages to close a transformative acquisition like Sval’s, the share price could easily double
I can image that Chris Cox would like to arrive to the job with a positive announcement, sending a strong message to the market
Ailwind’s production of 40,000+ boepd was higher than Serica’s 26,200 boepd in 2022. Another positive aspect of the deal were Tailwind’s tax losses of $1,366 million of UK Ring Fence Corporation Tax losses and $1,202 million of Supplementary Charge losses, at a time that Serica had already utilised all its tax losses. All in all, the deal was positive for Serica’s needs: more production, better oil-gas ratio and addition of tax-losses.
Serica’s production profile now is better than it was before. I’d rather have a balanced production than 90% of oil or gas.
A balanced production in the UK is still good, even after the drop from the record levels in 2022, the production of gas is very profitable.
A partnership with Mercuria is always a good thing.....One of the main changes after the deal was completed was the replacement of all top management positions and some of the directors
The new CEO and CFO combine experience in the North Sea with a long list of M&A transactions in the North Sea. These changes mark the transformation of Serica from the old mindset to a new approach to conducting businesses in the oil and gas sector
A new Ceo starts on 1.07.24......a few days to wait to see the new direction , Norway ? etc. along with Labours actual plans, then business can decide on their next actions, SQZ is better placed than many North Sea operators (see below posts etc) .