Member Info for DennisThePennis

While the old team did incredibly well with BKR and building their core capabilities, they lost momentum on the commercial side of things. I guess they might have been risk averse since the business was still immature and fragile.

When a new CEO arrives, he or she needs to make an impression and isn't so precious about the legacy. Chris Cox has been a lot bolder in his approach and is setting the company up for expansion, which includes creating new organisational roles which a single-asset company doesn't need.

I was impressed with the presentation and overall I'm impressed with Mr Cox and Mr Copeland. They have a clear strategic direction, a good track record on organic and inorganic growth, and I'm even beginning to think they've got the operational problems with Triton under control.

From a shareholder perspective, I think everything looks very positive for the short, medium and long term. I'm holding!

I'm constantly surprised SQZ shares aren't trading higher.

While O&G is least-loved sector by an anti-business government, the company is positioning for 2029 when hopefully we will see big changes on that front. In the meantime, they have a clever strategy of low-cost portfolio expansion, utilising tax losses to boost profits, then we have the "bonus" of high O&G prices at present (and probably for the next 12+ months).

Maybe the SP is depressed due to concerns about production reliability. Hopefully the next update will allay those concerns. 🤞

Trump is desperate to “do a deal” and Iran knows it. They’re just stringing him along. They know the longer they drag it out, the more desperate he’ll get to claim a victory, and the better deal they’ll negotiate.

Oil is down again this morning based on hopes of a deal, despite a “defensive” US strike in southern Iran, but I think it will be heading up again soon.

AIMO.

Reeves is now proposing to hit oil and gas companies with overseas revenues with even more tax to allow her to reduce VAT on zoo visits for “working people”.

That’ll be Shell and BP quitting to the UK to move to the US.

The level of ignorance and incompetence is truly unbelievable.

Frankly unbelievable.

It would be very difficult to find another group of adults with less real world experience than the current cabinet.

Once Starmer has gone, I think things will get even worse and we'll be having a general election in 2027. I think this is what Nigel Farage has already predicted.

It seems every time O&G prices rise, SQZ SP rises, although not by as much. And every time O&G prices dip, SQZ SP dips, although by somewhat more.

If this continues, when O&G prices eventually normalise, our SP will be quite a bit lower than it started. :-/

Hi CheshireDentist, in the FY 2025 update a couple of weeks ago, Chris Cox mentioned that Dana had to shut down Triton in February and March to deal with some overdue maintenance. He also said Triton is still running on just one gas compressor, which reduces production and increases risk, and we also heard that one of the gas turbine power generators needs repairing or replacing.

Last year, Triton was shut down almost constantly due to various problems. The second gas compressor was one thing which was supposed to be fixed, but I recall we also had storm damage to a storage tank, corroded pipe work, and a damaged flare stack.

For 2026, they have provided production guidance of “significantly over” 40kboepd for Triton, assuming one week of downtime per month on average. Given the history, I think this is something to watch carefully over the course of the year. Personally, I’m still not confident they have a grip on Triton asset reliability, and I wondered if this could be impacting the share price. High oil and gas prices aren’t as beneficial if production is constrained.

A bit of a disappointing share price reaction today, all things considered.

Anyone know the status of the latest surprise maintenance at Triton?

Upomega, I have no problem with the UK government investing in renewable energy, but they need to accept that energy transition is a process, not an event, and it will take many decades to change our energy system. Their strategy and plan should reflect this, in particular:

1. They need a workable means to provide dispatchable electricity at scale during “dunkenflaute” periods.

2. They need to avoid dismantling our legacy energy system before the new one is ready.

Their current approach will increasingly undermine our energy security while driving up our energy costs.

Cardinal, it wouldn’t be the first time this government has performed a u-turn, and it looks like this one would actually be welcomed by the majority of voters.

Remember only 20% of the electorate actually voted Labour in the GE, and according to press reports most of them believe a reversal in policy is justified.

Often people don’t take much interest in political policies until they’re impacted directly. With net zero, almost everyone believes it’s a good thing in principle and will happily vote for it, but the current crisis has exposed some serious weaknesses in Miliband’s approach. I think some people are questioning it for the first time.

Cardinal, maybe I live in a bit of a bubble but I don't know anyone who agrees with Miliband's approach. I see people getting noticeably more energised about this.

If you care to peruse reader comments on newspaper websites (including the Guardian) you'll find the vast majority of people criticising Miliband.

Even committed net zero fans are softening, admitting we'll need oil and gas for decades, and maybe it's better to use our own.

I'm also sensing resistance to Miliband from other cabinet members including Rachel Reeves.

Unfortunately I'm also sensing that Starmer won't tackle this due to his fear about a leadership challenge.

Maybe this is just my perspective. Do you have a different view?

Miliband expected to block North Sea oil drilling

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/04/03/miliband-expected-to-block-north-sea-oil-drilling/

Incredible that he's refusing to budge in the face of overwhelming public opinion.

Normally I'd hope the PM would step in, but, well... our PM is hardly normal.

These days, Serica suffers from too many traders and not enough investors. Once they’ve made their 10% or 20%, they take their profit, and the current volatility is a prime opportunity for them.

Regardless, it looks like Trump is going to walk away and expect others to deal with reopening the Strait of Hormuz. That will probably require UN coordination and possibly military intervention, which is going to take quite some time.

In the meantime, the oil price isn’t going down. Personally, I’m not selling.

It looks like the UK government is softening on domestic oil and gas production, and I’m guessing Miliband has been told he needs to approve Rosebank and Jackdaw. But I’d be very surprised if he starts allowing exploration drilling again.

Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Cushion-Is-Gone-and-the-Oil-Market-Is-Now-Exposed.html

- The oil market initially absorbed a historic supply disruption thanks to surplus, floating storage, and policy interventions.

- Those buffers are now largely depleted, leaving the system structurally fragile and highly sensitive to new disruptions.

- With spare capacity constrained and inventories falling, even minor supply shocks could now trigger disproportionate price spikes.

The global oil market has been on a rollercoaster since late February, but the price reaction to the largest supply disruption in history has been relatively muted. The calm was not complacency; buffers were there to absorb the shock. But the system that held for four weeks is no longer the system we are operating in today.

…

From this week, every day matters.

Before the Brent crude flat price reacts, the physical markets are the canary in the mine, and differentials are now starting to move as European buyers realize that they will face fierce competition from Asian refiners for Atlantic basin barrels.

Lots of positive plans and expectations announced but concerned to hear there were further Triton outages impacting production in Q1 and the second compressor is still not operational. Also surprised and disappointed to hear there's a problem with a power turbine. This was downplayed, but to me it suggests they still don't have a grip on operational reliability and/or partner stewardship/assurance.

Also disappointed to hear the main market move won't happen until Q3 (earliest).

Overall, happy with M&A and field development progress but disappointed with lacklustre operational performance once again.

There will never be a better time to push this, but sadly Labour still has a big majority in the HoC, and many of them are idealists detached from reality.

Lord Richard Walker, CEO of Iceland supermarkets and a big Labour supporter, is now advising the government to introduce a profit cap for energy producers, on top of the 78% "windfall" tax which is already in place. He claims it will prevent "profiteering" and apparently it is being considered in Whitehall.

If this ever happens, I would suggest UK O&G producers should stop producing, then Walker and Miliband can work out where they're going to source 35% of the nation's energy.

With Trump threatening to destroy Iranian energy infrastructure and Iran threatening to retaliate across the whole region, things could get a lot worse very quickly.

It really underlines the foolishness of closing down our domestic oil and gas industry when we still need oil and gas.

I doubt Miliband will ever change course since he's a zealot. Hopefully Starmer will grow a pair, but I think that's unlikely too.

The only consolation is that sky high O&G prices will be good for the profits of UK O&G companies, if you happen to be a shareholder. Unfortunately not good for bill payers.

Patience is a virtue. Good things come to those who wait.