Member Info for DennisThePennis

Net zero targets will be relaxed - as was always inevitable - but I doubt the EPL will be reduced. Once a new tax has been introduced, government gets hooked on it, especially in the face of a weakening economy and massively rising state costs across the board. Tax avoidance through M&A is the only viable approach for operators wanting to stay in the UK.

Like Putin, he wants to be remembered as someone who changed the world. He doesn’t particularly mind how it changes but he wants it to be very, very memorable. Someone needs to get him under control, somehow.

Terry, in the ideal world I would agree, but realistically I think it would be too much of a stretch for Serica. As far as I know, almost all their people have spent their careers in the UK (most ex-BP), and that's where they're most comfortable. Even here, often they seem to be overstretched just keeping things running, and maybe that's why the "Norway bridge head" idea was abandoned.

This must be the worst possible time to be doing deals.

Against the backdrop of UK fiscal challenges and uncertainty, we have significant operational problems to be solved, compounded by the global turmoil and uncertainty caused by Trump.

I think the best course of action would be for UK gas producers to stop production and give this useless government a wake-up call. That might be one problem solved.

Still a junk share

Lots of promises as always. Hoping they can actually deliver, as always.

A bit disappointing that one of the highlights for 2024 was a tax refund due to a considerable production shortfall.

As I've said before, this company's biggest problem is keeping on top of maintenance, for both Bruce and Triton. Although the Triton FPSO is operated by Dana (as mentioned several times in the presentation), Serica needs to make sure maintenance gets executed diligently.

It would be interesting to see metrics for corrective and preventative maintenance backlogs for both facilities. If they're serious about improving uptime and production performance, I'd expect to see declining backlogs over time. Maybe they could include this in their next presentation to boost investor confidence.

Suggests to me that ENQ has more to gain than SQZ.

Disappointed with the dividend cut. The dividend was the only silver lining.

EV is a misnomer. It’s the theoretical cost of buying a business, not the actual value of the business.

A simple example. A business with a market cap of £100 million, no debt or liabilities, and cash in the bank of £200 million has an EV of -£100 million. A negative EV. Serica was almost in this position prior to the Tailwind deal.

EV is one way to assess the ‘value’ of a business, but it’s a very simplistic accountancy method and it’s not robust for most real-world businesses. It will normally imply that highly leveraged companies are more ‘valuable’ than companies with low levels of debt, but clearly this isn’t always the case.

Not sure it was Mercuria being astute in the Tailwind deal. The Tailwind founders seemed to do pretty well for themselves and didn't hang around long afterwards.

Kamrat, you’re sounding increasingly desperate. Give it a rest.

Hopefully our esteemed BoD will undertake their due diligence and exercise their fiduciary duty to protect shareholders.

Personally, I would also welcome an objective assessment from someone like Jeremy Raper. He was bang on the money last time.

The date of the RNS announcing the Tailwind acquisition was 20/12/22. 7 months after the EPL had been introduced.

The share price at that time was £2.78.

The share price today is £1.25.

Says it all.

Whatever offer ENQ submits will reflect current problems with Triton. Whether these are serious or not, I don't know, but they're sure to impact Serica's value to some extent.

With this in mind, it might be best for Serica to avoid any deals at present and focus on stabilising production.

No deal is better than a bad deal for SQZ shareholders.

To get shareholder support, they’d have to present a much more compelling case than with Tailwind. Some of us have becoming less trusting since then.

"Unless, like ENQ you have a spare FPSO anchored nearby."

Unfortunately FPSOs aren't hot-swappable. To modify another FPSO with all the necessary well risers and process equipment would be almost as complex and costly as constructing a new FPSO.

I dearly hope Triton can be repaired otherwise we can forget about any more dividends.

I think it's just down to poor leadership, continually over-promising and under-delivering. Since Tony Craven Walker stepped down, the quality of leadership has been less than impressive.

Totally unacceptable. Agreed.

It’s no good Chris Cox blaming Dana. When I worked in the industry, we had people overseeing JV partners and service providers, keeping them on their toes and holding them to account.

Senior executives get paid the big bucks for making sure these disasters don’t happen. In Serica, they happen far too often.

The RNS released today is very light on detail, and in the next update I would like to hear more about the three specific problems below.

- Repair of Triton oil storage tank (promised mid-late March)

- Commissioning of Triton second gas compressor (promised by end March)

- Bruce improvement notice (required by 31st July)

I would also like to hear about the long term sustainability of the Triton FPSO. I’m getting increasingly concerned that it will need replacing which is probably not affordable.

As I understand it, the legacy Tailwind tax losses can only be used against legacy Tailwind assets, not legacy Serica assets.

I'm not a tax expert but I assume a reverse takeover is proposed to ensure ENQ's substantial tax losses can be used with maximum flexibility.

Hopefully specifics will be clarified in due course.

Last time, I felt the company was rather vague and non-commital about how Tailwind tax losses could be utilised. I got the impression that they didn't actually know.

This time, they need to be much more confident and explicit. Considering his background and experience, I would expect Martin Copeland to exercise proper due diligence and make sure all the numbers are crystal clear.

The problem with this company is that management keep telling us things are going to get better just before they get worse. This has been happening for quite a while now, resulting in loss of management credibility and investor confidence.

To change this situation, management need to walk the talk. Still hoping.

I haven't made my mind up on this potential deal yet, but if it goes ahead I would expect the BoD to articulate a crystal clear, compelling case for shareholders (unlike last time). Waiting with bated breath.