Member Info for DennisThePennis

I think they're trying to reduce gas consumption by reducing grid pressure. Cooking rice tonight, I could hardly get the water to boil on our gas hob.

Yes, 62% of our electricity is generated by gas at present.

And roughly 25 million UK homes are heated by gas.

I'd say gas is almost as important as water at present. Ed Miliband is a total moron.

I understand wind farms were responsible for spreading COVID.

I wrote to the Department of Energy Security and Net Zero asking for a costed transition plan. They didn't provide this (since they don't have it) and just gave me some word salad instead.

See below and judge for yourself.

My request...

“I am looking for a document describing the current government’s energy strategy and plan for the transition to net zero.

I would like to understand key activities within the plan, along with related timelines and cost estimates.

I was hoping to find such a document on your website but unfortunately it doesn’t appear to be published there.

Would you be able to help with this request?”

Their response...

“One of the new UK Government’s five missions is to make Britain a clean energy superpower, to give us energy security, protect billpayers, create jobs and tackle the climate crisis. In August, the Government commissioned the National Energy System Operator (NESO) to provide practical advice on achieving a zero-carbon electricity system by 2030. The Government received NESO’s advice on 5 November, which will inform the 2030 Clean Power Action Plan, due for publication by the end of the year. The Government will respond to the Climate Change Committee’s annual progress report later in the autumn and will publish in line with the court order an updated delivery plan out to the end of CB6 in 2037. This will outline the policies and proposals needed to deliver carbon budgets 4-6 and the 2030 NDC on a pathway to net zero.”

Of course, that's double the rate predicted by dumb politicians and civil servants.

This will coincide with a global demand peak and supply shortage. Prices will go sky high.

Nice one Miliband.

Good news for SQZ though.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/01/07/north-sea-gas-production-plunge-after-miliband-crackdown/

A decent update.

Disappointing production for 2024, but that’s in the past, and hopefully production will now stabilise, especially once they get both compressors running on Triton.

Not sure about oil price in 2025 but gas price looks set to stay buoyant.

With more production wells coming online, it looks like FCF should be very respectable, tax burden should be modest due to past tax losses, and the dividend should be sustainable very comfortably.

Hopefully we’ll also see some SP growth through growing market confidence in the company (and dare I say, maybe even some accretive acquisitions).

Ed M isn't taking a pragmatic long term approach. This is the problem. He is ideologically wedded to net zero targets which aren't achievable, regardless of the consequences on UK jobs, tax revenue, and even carbon emissions. He is blinded to economic realities.

However, I believe things are starting to change. It feels like a better sense of reality is dawning in the media and even amongst some politicians, hastened by a growing energy crisis. I'm not sure how long it will take but sense will prevail in the end.

Dick, agreed 100%.

Like you, I had a sizeable chunk of my portfolio invested in the UKCS. My investments were made based on business fundamentals, and I considered SQZ to be a high-quality, well-run company with a promising future.

Of course, that was when UK business taxation was stable and predictable, which unfortunately is no longer the case. The UK government continues to hammer the oil and gas industry with eye-watering levels of “windfall” tax for making profits deemed excessive for a short period 2 years ago.

You have to wonder which business sector will be next. Will it be banks? Technology? Online retailing? With Trump’s demand for NATO countries to increase defence spending, the defence industry would be easy pickings for the treasury.

Personally, I’m no longer investing my money in the UK since I don’t believe the risks justify the rewards.

Maybe the next deal should be buying the Triton FPSO from Dana and becoming operator. Serica has a strong interest in maintaining Triton while it seems Dana is trying to exit the UK.

One day this share is going to have a rally which lasts for more than 1 day. Not sure I can wait that long though.

I heard Miliband on Radio 4 and I don't think they pressed him hard enough.

They should have asked what it's going to cost to achieve carbon-free electricity by 2030 and where the money's coming from.

I've written to the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero asking them this question but I haven't received an answer.

I think expanding the UK footprint could work well if they can offset taxes by buying companies with usable tax losses. After all, the UK is where Serica has its operating expertise.

At present, EPL stops in 2030, so utilising tax losses until then will allow them to maintain healthy FCF.

Seems like a good strategy, especially as mad Miliband's ridiculous transition "plan" starts to unwind (which seems to be happening already).

Seems like a good deal giving Serica more control over development of a couple of fields, plus tax losses to help boost profits. Hopefully there'll be more like this.

At the current share price, dividend yield is around 17%. The company has said it expects to be able to continue paying dividends at similar levels.

Take a look at the company fundamentals page on this website.

What's happening on 20th December?

Megla, I've reached the conclusion that Serica doesn't have the capability to handle a big acquisition on top of day to day operations. Also no experience outside the UK. I think the best solution for shareholders would be if another company swallowed them up or if Mercuria took them private and paid out fair value on the shares (which must be well above £2 in theory). Until then, keep taking the dividend.

Like others here, I've been expecting Serica to do an M&A deal for quite a while, based on what they've said at almost every investor presentation. I was hoping a deal was already on the cards and would be announced once the uncertainty of the tax regime was lifted.

On reflection, I don't think they're ready for rapid expansion. Over the years, we've had a few nasty surprises relating to plant and infrastructure integrity, the latest one being this Triton compressor saga.

I haven't worked in the industry for many years but I know you need to have stable operations before attempting major growth. Getting on top of maintenance, improving plant reliability and meeting production targets should be their immediate priority, with a bit of organic growth through nearfield development. I think any big M&A ambitions should be parked until they've fixed the basics.

As I've said before, it's better to under-promise and over-deliver than the other way around, which sadly is now the norm for Serica.

Good to see some companies being proactive rather than sitting on their hands.

It’s just one bad news story after another.

By now it’s clear that Triton is a rust bucket and we massively overpaid for Tailwind.

Also I wonder about the ability of the company to handle an acquisition if they can’t keep day to day operations running.

So far there’s no evidence of the new CEO bringing anything to the party.

If tensions ease in Ukraine and the middle east, and the US under Trump ramps up production, oil and gas prices are only going one way. Not good for Serica if it continues to rest on its laurels.