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Great post Spacman. Some on here think trials to start end of Q1 2024 is on target.
The target start date for trials started with the RNS in April 22, then end of 2023 and now end of Q1 2024.
My view based on the silence from the company, considering the above and 97% in share price, trials will be delayed again!
Cave door has to open shortly
Correction - the 2022 Annual Report was signed off by BDO in May 2023 (not 2022 of course). Apologies.
Just gone back and checked - the 2022 Annual Report (that BDO signed off on in May 2022) stated that the P2 trials would commence in H2 2023. It would be interesting to understand what future projections (which underpin the Going Concern assessment) have been provided by the company to BDO for the audit this year, and how much confidence BDO have in those.
It's probably going to take a compliance issue like this to force the BoD's hand to undertake a transaction. Otherwise you've got a "law unto himself" CEO happy to keep taking a £350k package for "leading" an organisation that has no trials to run, no customers to serve, no manufacturing to do, no communications to bother about.. but 30 staff to help out just in case.
You really couldn't make it up.
Gunto - the unknown (to us) is the cost of the trials, and if the company is still pre-revenue come the start of Q2 2026 which is what your scenario is suggesting, then all that will be affecting the auditors' confidence in the Going Concern stress-testing they're doing. Do you think BDO have great confidence in the BoD? I doubt it.
Mr Costs - you're right, they could announce cessation of trials intent and then that is a Business Plan (if that's what you can still call it) they can certainly deliver on. But that decision (which would need to be RNS'd as it's a material change in a company that then becomes dormant save for paying salaries) is a game-changer in itself... suddenly the company is saying there are no prospects for ever creating a revenue stream. I'm not a company law expert, but a basic understanding of fiduciary duty would suggest that the directors are then duty-bound to put the company or its assets up for sale to realise value for the shareholders.
AIMHO. DYOR.
Wpa5 i am not sure the trials are going to be short and sweet. At least one is apparently highly targeted, so whilst the cohort is small, it might take longer to recruit the required patients to meet the criteria. I am erring on the side of caution until more information is available.
Gunto ... 'P2 results Q1 2026' ... or did you mean Q1 2025 ?
Results are due, they require an update, RM
will have to confirm a H1 start or explain a delay..
I think we will all know where we are in the next few weeks..
Spac - perhaps the company could write out the proposed phase 2 trials of their business plan and that would solve any going concern issue. Just a thought.
Spacman, what kind of timeframes would you assign to the below statement? I would say two years.
“The Company’s cash resources are sufficient to cover its plans to design and establish data from an observational study and two investigator-led/Synairgen-sponsored Phase 2 clinical trials, including manufacture of active and placebo for use in these trials.”
Thanks for your expectations timeline Gunto. I don't think that Business Plan timeline would pass the Going Concern test they're possibly up against with the auditors currently, unless there's some funding solution, JV etc. announcement about to come.
I don’t think so Spac. I know you want some excitement but the company will plod on at the normal (pre pandemic) pace and the P2 will be under way when ready, results posted when ready and next steps will be announced when ready.
My updated timeline of expectations:
P2 start: q3-2024
P2 results: q1-2026
Happy if earlier but can’t see it at the moment.
On the flip side, I do think there is more than meets the eye to the recent joint presentation with the UK Health Authority. The mention of pandemic preparedness does lead my eye towards the 100 Days Mission.
Pot calling kettle MrCosts ‘ Gunto - you are trying really hard to luck clever.’….
‘look’ not ‘luck’.
Gunto - of course TFG will be totally supportive of the management until the day they they aren't. In a heartbeat they will pounce, they can pull over £100m back potentially, they won't just let things fester with an inadequate management.
The natural order here is that SNG001 should now be in the hands of a BP that has done hundreds of thousands of P2's and P3's. By contrast the Synairgen team, with the exception of Mankowski, have done a handful. Even Mankowski has infinitesimal experience by comparison to the combined institutional history of a BP. I hope SSH is realising that it's time to move this on.
MrCosts
Posted in: SNG
Posts: 1,498
Price: 5.00
No Opinion
Trades are increasing11 Mar 2024 14:08
10p by end of the week! jUsT mY GuEsS.
…….
Well done to Mr Costs.
Gunto - you are trying really hard to luck clever.
The majority of the TFG investment was pre phase 3 results. They bought between £2 and say £1.00. The share price is now c. 6p.
The interview with Reade Griffith (I believe is Oct 2022) after trial failure. That doesn't tell you anything about how Synairgen will turn this mess around.
I don't understand the link the between one interview which means everything will come good.
Haha Mr Costs. Clearly but bought more stock when he wrote “buys are coming in so there must be news close!” lol! I guess he forgot to sell (again).
I am not in the know but I did bother to watch the Reade Griffith interview where he discussed the investment strategy of TFG. It is out there on YouTube and for those with a longer attention span than 5mins, you can learn a thing or two and gain some insight as to what is ‘most likely’ going on here.
Gunto - why are you pretending you are in the know.
Johnnyboy - 'the science' - I'm sure we failed our last phase 3 and the drug hasn't been used since Nov 21. 'The science' sounds like an old banger that won't start.
Oh and timeframes. RNS April 2022 (yes 2022) stated they were considering new trials. RNS September 2023 states trials would start by end of 2023.
We are currently 'on track' for an already delayed trial start date.
Nothing to worry about here.
Sorry I meant full years results not test.
GLA
None of that will happen Spac. People here are missing quite a bit of detail on TFG but I do enjoy the speculation. Certainly more lively than the reality!
T_P - I now whole heartily agree. Although looking back at past RNS - the full test results will probably just be announced within the next 2 weeks . so much for better communication but we should have realised this since Brooke’s departure.
The science is still there and dates as we know it are still on track. We still have 2 months in the first half of 2024.
Keep the faith, besides little comms…We are still within the expected timescales.
Have a good day all.
TP - good post. Thank you.
The next update from the company has to be 'this is what is happening' and not the usual 'subject to...' waffle we have been provided with for the last two years.
On TFG, I'm not convinced they are actually overly concerned what Synairgen does or does not achieve. Consider TFG's entire portfolio, if Synairgen fails its business as usual for TFG.
Well then Gunto, hopefully TFG now move to dissolve the BoD and get the company auctioned off to BP and some money back to shareholders.
J&J might just pay $400m for full control of a clean Synairgen without the deadweight of Marsden et al.
I am expecting further delays with trials start.
The longer the elapsed time from the last announcement, the more concerning it becomes for LTIs. The most recent periods of long silence from Synairgen have been followed by jam tomorrow statements, which have thus far led to nothing.
We are no longer informed about presentations, or significant staff changes. All we have on this forum is intelligent guesswork based on information from tangentially relevant articles that the best researchers are able to discover.
After seven months, with no news whatsoever from Synairgen, an update is by now long overdue. Hopefully, there will be no further excuses from our perennially disappointing CEO. GLALTIs.