Member Info for RodneyT

Good to know, thanks for the update.

Interesting points PBOW. I have a different take on block caving - ESG and decarbonisation alignment -underground block cave mining = low carbon intensity? If so, that's inline with Western trends, less so with BRICS countries.

The US is both the country's and DN family business's No 1 trading partner and Ecuador uses the US Dollar as its currency. Moreover, DN just won an election handsomely based on a Western-focused agenda. Granted, China is in No2 spot and closing the gap.

Agree, PBOW. Both DN's family business and Ecuador itself have the US as No1 trading partner and China No2 but with latter closing the gap. A tightrope therefore. This plays out via visits like this but also courting Western organisations such as the IMF, World Bank and so on. S&P, Fitch and Moody's ratings matter!

Understood, Add,we are reading it differently but that is the beauty of a discussion. Keep it going. I have a Western acquisition of the whole of Solgold way out in front. You too, PBOW, let's keep chatting.

Interesting, Add, but factor in that DN was born in Miami Florida and has dual Ecuadorian and US citizenship.

Sorry, Add, was that not when DV is due to give a Q & A session or is that off now?

Well, I've noticed that a certain Western miner has its year end on 30th June, a company with a point to prove and copper to acquire.

Good morning all,

I've been looking at the Ecuadorian government and its stated direction.

President Daniel Noboa is highly likely to favour a Western strategic partner over a BRICS-aligned group . His administration has prioritised economic reform, transparency, and stronger alignment with Western institutions, including the IMF and World Bank. A Western-led Cascabel development would signal investor confidence, ESG compliance, and diplomatic compatibility with Ecuador’s strategic goals. Conversely, a PRC-led funding model—whether through debt or creeping control—could raise concerns around governance, foreign influence, and economic sovereignty. If a Chinese-backed funding package is presented on 23 June, it may serve more as a provocation or negotiating tactic to prompt a Western response rather than a preferred long-term path for Ecuador. In Ecuador, a Western bidder is therefore better aligned with the government’s stated direction and would likely receive stronger political support for project execution.

Based on FX 1:34 I have Cascabel NPV at GBP 4.7 bn so about 160p a share based on today's spot. Haven't included any value for Porvenir or other assets. I think this consistent with NAV 164p all in and Stas' comments a few days ago that NPV would be more. % of NAV of any takeout price is moot/specific to the deal and asset. I think Cascabel and Ecuadior are big news and that bidders will show this via their offers. Resource security is ever more important as the world moves ever more towards trading blocs and de-globalisation. At this stage of Cascabel's development, 60% of NAV could be enough to buy the whole company, more in a counterbid situation.

It isn't Quady, irrespective of what London South East says.

NAV is an aggregation of all of the company's project-level NPVs, adjusted for corporate costs, balance sheet items, taxes, and streams. NPV is used at the level of each individual project to calculate the value of its expected cash flows over its finite mine life. Mining companies often own multiple projects at different stages. NAV combines them into one total valuation which is why NAV is the primary basis on which mining deals are agreed.

Quady, please see above. NPV 'drives' NAV and NAV is what M&A deals are based upon. With NAV 164p, I have NPV at 197p, i.e. more than NAV which was Stas' point a couple of days ago. 30% of that (conservative based on other M&A deals) gives about 60p i.e. much more than your 5p now. Not to worry, it will all come out in the wash in due course. This is an extremely valuable asset and I suspect that the recent news on acreage along with the geopolitcal environment mean there is a deal to be done. Lockdown delayed things and business now needs to be done.

Another interesting article PBOW

Western companies have the advantage in a full bid situation but they will need to move fast because an asset sale/JV by Solgold to/with a PRC SOE could be lurking. Latter will find a takeover much tougher. July 31st is close. It is hotting up and not just the English weather.

Thanks PBOW,

I based the numbers on a mid-NAV valuation of Corriente Resources combined assets of $1.12 bn and a takeover price of $650 million so about 58% of NAV. Sorry not to have been clearer first time.

Quady, I just checked your post in 2020 and based on 3bn shares in issue and updated spot, what you said is mighty close to what has been set out by Hannam and Partners, Red Cloud, Stas20, yours truly and many others here.

I think it is absolutely fine to change one's mind as/when facts change. An example is when I found that Paul Smith had done such a good job with Las Bambas. I didn't know that before and he now has my support whereas before I was indifferent at best.

With the above in mind, what has changed so that you have changed your mind so much and thus allocate such a low NAV/NPV figure?

Quady,

Please address my previous query, here it is again, thanks.

Based on your methodology, Quady, how do you explain Hannam & Partners and Red Cloud's workings and forecasts? Please sumarise your workings.

Don't quite understand that Stas20, please explain in another way.

Interesting, PBOW

Ecuador under President Noboa is walking a fine line. On the one hand, it is actively courting China for infrastructure, trade, and some financing, including recent visits to Beijing. On the other, it is firmly anchoring itself to the West:

1.Engagements with Five Eyes leaders (especially Trump in March 2025)

2.Seeking support on security, drug trafficking, and private investment from US and UK firms

3.Seeking foreign direct investment to plug fiscal and investment gaps without relying solely on Chinese state loans

This context strongly favours a Western company such as BHP in a strategic takeover scenario.

Well, Ecuador was a much riskier investment propositon back then and the project was not as advanced as Cascabel is today. It still went for about 58% of NAV. PRC backed SOE's value supply security/certainty and are prepared to pay well to achieve it.

Based on your methodology, Quady, how do you explain Hannam & Partners and Red Cloud's workings and forecasts? Please sumarise your workings.