RE: Nobody Wants a Milk Float17 Feb 2026 13:32
Is there any reason why when discussing the takeover prices against current SOLG NAV that no one is picking up on (or at least I haven't seen so apologies if you have), or at least discussing the premium that should be added due to the huge undervaluation of the PFS against current spot. By my reckoning the official NAV is undervalued by approx. 54% relative to today's spot prices and assuming I have the rough correct mix of metals - happy to be corrected?
Undervaluation Analysis
Verified Spot Prices (12 June 2025)
Gold: $3,373.09/oz
Copper: $4.79/lb
Silver $36.33/oz
Step-by-Step Undervaluation Analysis
Premium over PFS Inputs
- Gold: (3373 – 1750) ÷ 1750 = +93%
- Copper: (4.79 – 3.85) ÷ 3.85 = +24.5%
- Silver: (36.33 – 25) ÷ 25 = +45% (if PFS used $25/oz)
2. Blended NAV Uplift
Assuming a metal VALUE mix of 50% copper and 50% gold/silver:
Average uplift = (93% + 24.5% + 45%) ÷ 3 = +54%
thus if we take purely the NAV associated with the various assets:
Full Asset Base NAV (Including Cascabel, Porvenir, and other concessions):
Cascabel (Alpala): - $3.2bn NPV (post-tax, 8%)
Porvenir (Tandayama - America system): - $1.2bn est. NPV
Other tenements (Blanca, Cisne Loja, etc.): - $300–500m optionality
Total Implied NAV: approx. $4.8 billion based on old pricing, thus at NAV this would have a value of $4.8 / 3 billion shares = $1.60 per share or £1.18 a share
Now, I am not suggesting that SOLG would sell at NAV, although many assets have in the past (e.g. Filo Mining – $4 bn deal, Metals Acquisition (MAC) - CSA Mine, Greatland Gold -Telfer & Havieron Projects, Rio Tinto & Turquoise Hill, Osisko (Windfall, Quebec) etc)
- SolGold, by contrast, remains an early stage project with capital execution and sovereign risk, however if you assumed even a 50% discount for this, then you get around 59p a share but interestingly that is based on old pricing and not the above uplift that should rightly be applied - thus I am not here to say what a sale WILL achieve - however I am just working through the numbers as an aid to demonstrate why such number are not nuts but can at least be justified in analysis context.
Happy for this to be pulled apart, indeed I welcome it.