RE: Chinese takeaway12 Feb 2026 16:50
Needy, Here are my answers to your questions. I am happy to be patient to achieve value, I am not focused on quick completion and don't want it.
1. NPV is just what the company could hope for
The roughly $4 billion figure is not new modelling. It is simply the existing PFS NPV re run using the company’s own sensitivity tables at today’s forward PFS metal assumptions, which are about 20% above the original base case. Spot prices are higher still and have not been used.It is the same engineered mine plan, same reserves and same discount rate, just updated price inputs. It remains conditional on execution, as all PFS valuations are. Calling it hope is catchy but technically wrong.
2. The market value is what matters, 28p
28p today reflects the probability of the Scheme completing and cash being received. In live takeovers, shares trade to the bid price, not to intrinsic asset value. That is arbitrage mechanics. It tells you what the market thinks about completion risk. It does not prove 28p equals long term economic value.
3. There is not a scrap of evidence for a counterbid
There is no public evidence. Agreed. There rarely is until someone moves. The flat 28p suggests the market assigns low probability to a pre vote counter. That is a probability judgement, not proof of no strategic interest. The fact is that we are currently in the counterbid window.
4. Who will large shareholders sell to
Right now mainly arbitrage funds. If the Scheme passes everyone gets 28p anyway.
If it fails, large holders are not forced sellers. They can hold, fund, negotiate or wait. Institutions are not obliged to panic.
5. If they sell to JCC where does that leave SolGold
If JCC crosses key thresholds the Takeover Code triggers consequences. They cannot quietly creep to control without obligations. This is a Code governed UK company, not an unregulated junior.
6. It will just sit in mothballs
Large copper assets often sit in optimisation mode while funding paths evolve. That is preserving option value.Not building immediately does not equal economic extinction.
7. What does new management do with no funds
Governance reset. Capital discipline. Strategic engagement. Structured finance discussions. Rebuilding credibility. Capital markets respond to confidence. That alone can materially affect valuation before construction funding is finalised.
8. You once liked this management
Views change as facts change. I have given credit to management for share price performance in 2025 but I do not agree with its decision to commence a SoA
9. How bad would a cash raise be
Potentially dilutive, yes. That is the real risk. But dilution depends on share price and confidence at the time of raising. Tier one copper assets get funded. The debate is about terms, not viability. 28p reflects fear of dilution more than proof of worthlessness