Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
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Not seeing much enthusiasm from usual posters hope everyone's well
Hi Steve
I think the decks have been cleared and new foundations put in place funding overhang sorted, major new investors on the book, AGM sorted just need to get the merger signed off then we can sit back and let Bob Sangha do his thing …… I suspect most people (including myself) not expecting to hear much until the New Year, but I fully expect next year to be a very rewarding one for us all, as well as our last
2023 will mark the 10th anniversary of my investment in solg. I have bought and sold a fair few in that time, but I have consistently been a holder in that time. I'm 99% sure ot will be my last year, what ever happens. Hoping for a great outcome, but honestly now looking forward to the day when I'm no longer involved with solg. Good luck all, I'm sure im not alone in this sentiment.
Very similar sentiment here Monte.... held since 2011, added several times and sold a lot once. Still hold a significant amount, at an average that isn’t fantastic (fraction over 20p). Think after all this time though, I’ll hold for as long as it takes, but like you, would very much like to see one of those often talked about exit points in 2023. I think we will.
I suppose the key questions is; how likely is it that the SR will conclude that nothing needs to change?
The answer of course is; no chance whatsoever. Therefore, one way or another, 2023 will see a radical change of direction and the driving force behind the change will be CGP's determination to deliver a return.
Another key question is how much of a premium can Solg achieve for the CGP shares…. And who will take them? Jianxi must be favourite, but after paying 16p recently in a mutually agreed deal, how much more would they realistically be willing to pay? I can’t decide if a new, 4th major entering the fray, would just cloud the water even more, creating more of a stand off between each other… or finally trigger a bid…. and how much of a premium to Jianxi any new major would be willing to pay.. that low recent 16p share print may be used as a reference point.
I don't think the CGP shares will be sold...I think they'll be held in Treasury...
If the Bpard want a price north of 100p and they keep selling shares sub 20p thats going to be a hard task...
But if they're held in Treasury they can be used as a weapon against BHP if needed...
Meanwhile a meaningless day...prices tend to drift on low volume...only 2.8 million and 400k of that was my T20 bed and breakfasts...
Lets see what tomorrow brings but it could be a quiet week and next Monday is also a Bank Holiday...leaving 4 trading days after that before the CGP vote and merger...
Red, let us see what the next few weeks bring and if any offer arrives. For balance Irwin was clear on 24 November that “ You are in the wrong place if a 600 percent return here is your expectation”. So lets firstly receive a bid then evaluate from there. Remember being in the AA. People thought the first bid of 35p was a lowball mickey take and it won. Partly due to board incompetence (but order board not covered itself in glory for several months). But also lots of dark arts go on, as a man of your background would understand. Hopefully any lowball offer would trigger a Noront style bidding war. But not guaranteed and key players clearly want some form of monetisation.
Lol bed and breakfast T20……
People T20 because they are gambling………
.
NRL2901, thanks for your sensible post. I had actually missed that comment from Warren Irwin. Here's the link to the tweet and thread for those interested: https://twitter.com/bigdude6669/status/1595832739877769216?s=20&t=2oOFIzAEVeRcqvSQ_0Ih4Q
He also goes on to discredit the 78p+ fair value as outlined by Darryl in the merger presentation as "prognostications that were made by people who are no longer with the company".
I know it's not the most popular option on here, but I really think that Bozi's suggestion of hiving off Cascabel into a standalone company and then selling it on, leaving SOLG to continue exploring the regional portfolio would be the best long term outcome for shareholders. It'll allow us to get a better valuation from the market of Porvenir & the other prospects. Given Irwin's posts, 45p-50p for Cascabel seems about right?
Anything over 40p from here is a great result… I think people need to forget referencing previous share price high points, we have a load of extra shares in existence now.. and are sat at 15p….
Anything circa 40p will be a result.. we are where we are now.
How funny (not) if the SR came up with the idea to sell cascabel,but keep solg going to continue exploring and prove up the other targets. After all these years, when it was the original idea to prove up, sell ,and move on .
That would actually be a joke and just show how Mather and his cronies have actually destroyed any real value here, with their ideas of grandure.
They would certainly have some questions to answer at that stage imo
Then you think , Orthern, that the final price paid for the whole will be less than £1.2 billion ?
I don’t believe that. The big players will have a price they are willing to go up to....and the sp or number of shares in existence is irrelevant . I don’t think this will go for just over a billion....unless there’s the mother of all stitch ups
Monte …. Nick always had is own interests, and ours by default, at heart and the problem has been letting in the likes of BHP ….. you’ll see a whole new company emerging from the ashes in the very near future….. shortly after you’ll see it sold .
RK …. Totally agree there’s no need to give the Chinese any more cheap shares. They’ve got their foot in the door and the rest is up to them.
BPHIL ….. nor do I
BHIL, sorry your observation isn't correct. The number of shares in issue will dictate what we receive, so it's highly relevant.
I hope your right BPHIL… but we have to consider jurisdictional issues and IRR value when considering what a mining company may be willing to pay
It will dictate what WE receive, depending on how many shares we own . The buyer won’t care too much ...the bottom line is their concern , what price they are willing to go to should we get a bidding war
BPHIL, I'm not sure I understand the point you're trying to make.
It goes without saying a buyer is only concerned about the value they attribute to the company and that value is divided by the fully diluted number of shares to achieve the price we receive. But this is pretty obvious stuff, isn't it?
Of course. I’m not sure then why you seem to be disagreeing with my earlier post . I was just pointing out to Orthern that any buyer will only be concerned with the price they are prepared to pay .....in which case the current sp or number of shares in issue become largely irrelevant . Maybe we’re at cross purposes...
I think we must be. It was the comment about the number of shares being irrelevant which threw me.
Cheers NRL...I took it that Irwin meant 78p was much too low...
Mather has always focused on an Asset Value target, not Market Value...
Surely that gives you anything up to £2 ...?
RK, £2 would value the company at approx £6bn and as much as I'd love to see that it ain't gonna happen.