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IMO, the SP has absolutely no relationship to what this will sell for.
Our resource is very much wanted and even the thought of less than 50p makes me laugh.
It's all academic anyway, because a bid will not come for a fair old while.
I can't say when it will, but I'd be quite happy to bet it won't happen in 2023.
No doubt that will upset a few who have been saying it'll be sold for years now.
I have to laugh, because it's obvious to me that while the company has done all the things to make it look like they want a sale, I honestly don't believe it's true.
If it is, I still totally fail to see why they don't just come out and say sthat they want to sell.
Is there a worry that it might lead to a lower sale price? I doubt it, personally.
I see lots of disappointed PIs this year, because of a lack of a sale.
Meanwhile, I continue to accumulate, with the aim of reducing my 17.5 average even more.
Agreed Add, surely 2023 couldn't be any worse than the year we have just had.... could it ? Maybe my 21p expectation is too optimistic Lolzzz
Agreed Bozi, My expectation of a buyout is 21p !!! HNY to all
Add - I can only speak for myself but I'm trying to set my expectations low. That way, if this thing does ignite and the result is something we'll in excess of what can be safely assumed, then it'll be a nice surprise.
I'm just keen to avoid getting optimistic to the upside only to have my trousers pulled down and then have anger for Bob, Warren, Nick, etc etc.
There's no ramping or deramping from me. Just underpromise and overachieve hopefully.
The only thing I do know with absolute conviction is that this has been a bloody awful year.
So, here's to a much better one in 2023.
Bozi, people are making assumptions about value, and personally I can't see the point, particularly as it seems to be leading to a lot of depressed individuals.
A load of people saying "we won't get this...we won't get that"...to repeat, no one's got a clue.
I've never given a view of valuation and I won't start now. I'll form an opinion when something tangible appears.
Btw, you're absolutely spot-on about the 50m. It'll be gone in a flash and one thing I can guarantee - we won't be any further down the road to production.
How is it Addicknt?
You have said yourself that the landscape has changed since the merger and strategic review was announced and I agree.
Isn't the whole investment case for SolGold now based around how much someone might be willing to pay and when?
Yes, we know we have $50m from Osisko for Cascabel but we can assume this will be steadily sunk on staff, site visits, maybe a bit of drilling at Tandyama if we're lucky.
But aside from that, we're drifting, floating like Tom Hanks on his raft. Wilson!! WILSON!!!!!
Bozi, I guess my point is that we don't know yet and it seems a bit odd to start making assumptions about what someone may be prepared to pay when we have no idea one way or another. If we discount DC's comments, we also have no idea what our board thinks we're worth...so we really are in the dark.
Addicknt - it's not a case of nobody wanting what we have.
It is potentially a matter of nobody wanting to pay what many deem fair for what we have.
There's a big difference. I'm with you insofar as the strategic review and the intentions of Bob, Dan and Co.
But i can't fault anyone feeling resentment right now. We see the SP pinned to this 16p level ans for me, the action in the couple of weeks post Jan 9th will be enlightening. Why? Because ultimately this merger is seen as the common sense action. Stronger together and all that. Well, let's see if the market agrees by the end of Jan23.
Addicknt if it's about keeping the people employed at Cascabel, then it's year's. Nearly till 2029.
Understand your point about the DFS.
But maybe the strategic review is to short circuit the DFS and BFS and go straight to production with a JV .
Maybe more than one partner.
Q, have you worked out how much of that 50m will be spent on keeping our people employed? And what happened to the DFS? It's been firmly kicked into the long grass...hardly an indication of us preparing for production.
Morning addicknt, that's not the situation at all.
Yes people want what we have.
They just want it cheap.
The book has just become more diverse, so now it's harder to acquire.
This is because more parties to talk to. And none of them selling cheap.
We have no option but to continue with development at this moment in time.
I think this is what the strategic review is all about.
It's about the best way to proceed.
The fact that a bid hasn't emerged does not mean there's no interest.
There is now a formal channel through which to express an interest and our advisors will be keeping a very tight lid on things (that's not to say leaks don't occur, but so far it hasn't happened)
The company has signalled it's open to all approaches and if there are any interested bidders out there they'll be throwing their hats into the ring now.
I find it interesting that some people seem to be of the opinion no one wants what we have. It begs the question; why invest in something nobody else sees as being valuable. It also makes me think our trade investors must have made a tragic error.
The 50 million is to advance Cascabel. It cannot be used to advance Cascabel to a salable package.
The reason for this is it is a royalty deal or offtake at 0.6%
So the money can only be used to advance to production, so that they can start collecting on the 0.6%
I expect further information when we get the strategic review.
"We have raised 50 million which is ring fenced and can only be used to advance Cascabel."
They've had that a while, have they started using it yet ?
Advancing Cascabel is a broad description though, it could be interpreted in many ways.
"We have a further 36 million for exploration"
Is the 50 million not for exploration then, maybe it's for advancing Cascabel towards a saleable package.
I agree the SP demostrates there isn't a bid in the offing that is known about.
I've been guilty in the past of clinging onto "why would anyone sell to a bid of 30p when the SP has been at 40p twice in the last couple of years?"
The answer I guess is liquidity. Look at what happens each time Solg gets up to 40p levels, it sells off fairly quickly right back down to 30p and below. There are never any buyers at 40p to sustain the price. In fact it's been confirmed recently that most Solg shares are in sticky insider or institutional hands and are not being traded. It's largely PIs trading who drive the price swings up and down. SP gets to 40p and the canny PIs sell up, knowing it won't hold, and just that is enough to tank the SP back down to earth.
So maybe asking why would anyone sell at 30p is the wrong question... Perhaps a better question is "why can't everyone sell at 40p?" The answer is there is no liquidity.
The larger holders who own millions of shares know that the cannot ever sell at 40p on these spikes as things stand, because the SP will plummet. And not all of the shareholders can sell into any of these rises at the same time.
So if someone were to offer 30p for all shares, instead of feeling insulted and saying "but the SP was higher than that a few months ago," we need to be thinking that at the higher price there was very little liquidity and it wasn't achievable for many shareholders if they wanted to sell. If a bid is made for 30p every single shareholder can sell.
This is not me deramping. I don't think it will be sold for 30p. I'm just saying when we are talking about bids and past share prices, we need to be careful to remember what the market price based on a few million a day actually represents to most large holders (no exit) vs what a bid represents (an exit).
Agreed DartFrog.
As DBW says why let the facts get in the way of a good story.
But that's what most do on here.
So let's look at the facts.
Today the book is more diverse than it has been since I invested and this has meant no bid for all the obvious reasons.
The share price is in the doldrums and indicates no bid.
We have a strategic review which in part is looking how to bring Alpala to production cheaper and faster.
We have raised 50 million which is ring fenced and can only be used to advance Cascabel.
We have a further 36 million for exploration.
The one thing we do not have is any bid interest, not even a rumour of a bid.
I'll second that!
I wish that the share price is 40.35p!
Frog
You wish what, Frog?
I wish!
Frog
To remind Dart...
On 11 April SOLG was 40.35
Gold was $19.70
Copper was $4.70
They will return and so will the SOLG SP...
Exactly Add ….. but why let the facts get in the way of a good story eh
Dart, we do know - the timeline of the discussions was laid out in their circular to shareholders.
Obviously Warren Irwin and co by refusing NM’s bid for CGP rejected the opportunity to monetise their shareholders simply by putting them in a position to sell their SOLG shares. Now, of course, it is desperation stakes. It would not surprise me if CGP made the approach to SOLG. However, we will never know.
As the directors of CGP were unable to sell their company even with big “For Sale” notices posted, why do they think they will fare any better trying to sell the enlarged SOLG?
We will see, but I have to say that I am not convinced that they will be successful, and, if they are, then the price realised is anything above about 30p. I hope that I am wrong with this prediction!
Frog