The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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DBW it's you that have been 100% wrong.
You and the great uninformed on here have called a bid so many times.
I am saying up to now that production was the most likely outcome.
Let's see what the strategic review says.
I don't trust Irwin, but he may have let something slip.
Quady, I wouldn't miss this for the world.
Woody,
I wouldn't worry about what Irwin wants as a return. He's a smaller shareholder compared to the likes NM/Tenstar/DGR and then of course NCM and BHP. It's the bigger boys that will ultimately dictate what ENSA goes for as it will need a vote to pass the deal. Irwin might be happy with 25p or 30p. But I don't think Mather nor BHP / NCM would be happy with that and likely to see counter offers from BHP if the price is below what they believe to be decent value.
At end of the day, just need the first deal or bid to be revealed. If it's low ball say 25p to 30p range, then I'd expect we'd see subsequent bids from others follow. Doesn't really matter what the first bid is as in theory 'real value' based on the asset to should win through. Just the eternal question of whether it's ENSA and a spin off proposal or a full takeover over lock stock and barrel.
SharketMare haven't you filtered me yet.
I really have no time for your trolling.
With the Chinese trade deal and Ecuador minister mentioning the mine will start Cascabel build next year - do you think they are aware the Chinese are negotiating to buy the mine
Elitism
“Let's see if he is humble enough to admit that he called it wrong”
Lol
And so stage 1 of the reverse ferret begins.
Why Indi, I have always said I follow the evidence and facts.
We still await the strategic review.
Interesting times.
Quady, I've just fallen off my chair ! ! :-)
Good morning Eloro, well timed, just saw the presentation.
I agree this is the first bit of evidence we maybe inviting a bid.
However I will temper that with he planned to say what he said in a deliberate way.
Just watch that bit a few times.
He wants people to think the Chinese are going to bid.
Maybe, maybe not.
But as I said first bit of credible evidence we have had.
Excellent find Eish.
Thanks QP
Thanks Fort & Add, just trying to roughly work out what his target sale price is
He said he's held for six years. If it was 2016 he got them cheap, if it was 2107 it would depend upon what time of year he bought as the sp peaked at 40p during that year.
Where is Quady?
He must be gutted that Warren mentioned selling and not production, nor jv.
Let's see if he is humble enough to admit that he called it wrong. Or, will obfuscate by saying that he always expected a sale?
I think Irwin's stake in CGP originated some years ago so likely around the 5p levels on a comparable to SOLG. He said in the video yesterday that he had already done very well froths investment implying multiple returns albeit 'paper' and to realised just yet. But as he clearly said... 'trying to sell it to the....' suggests he expects 'shareholder' value (as stated by new management in RNS's) to be returned to shareholders. He like other were in very early doors has been waiting a long time for this monetisation event.
Does anyone know approximately what Warren Irwin's overall average SP investment is now in SG?
Sudden move , May be RNS on its way
Dave very true if there is a leak about buyer , we should get RNS that is when this will fly and need to know what price?
Reasonable volume but we need confirmation of bid talks, an approach or something along those lines to really get it moving, fingers crossed...
Let's assume BHP don't want to get involved. If this is the case, ironically, they become our friends. They will want to turn a profit and given their shareholding combined with that of NCM is still just over 20%, they have the opportunity to be a right pain in the ass. I'm sure they'll use this position to negotiate hard and we will find ourselves having to thank them.
Colonel...if Jiangxi are still the favourite they wont need any reassurances, because they are the Chinese State and they've just negotiated a trade deal...so we can safely assume those chairs are in a row...furthermore Jiangxi will have done a thorough DD before buying their 155 million...
As for the rest, surely any other player with an existing presence in Ecuador wont need to wait for reassurances...if they're big enough and commit to starting construction in 2024 surely Lassoo will just roll over...?
Ash you're right QP...first dealings tomorrow...silly me...gul!p
Doesn't seem to be much selling by stale CGP holders...but considering the 99.98% vote in favour, maybe the vast majority of CGP shares were held by block holders...
If they're all in here for the bid that should put a floor under the SP...especially if the shorters and arbitrageurs are out...
We'll see...
I think there's a few cogs turning at the same time and I wouldn't look at timeframes or duration as a sign that things are protracted or not going well. Doing a deal on Alpala will involve the Ecuador gov. Any new partner will want reassurances from Lasso and co. We have already been told that SOLG and Ecuador gov/mining ministry are in discussions with regard to 'protection' moving from exploration to exploitation phases. There's lots of moving parts but I think Ecuador gov/ Lasso will be hugely excited and motivated to help get any deal on Alpala through eg delivering rapid support. That said... if the chinese are involved (most think they are) then we know Lasso / Gov are in process of fine tuning the free trade deal which to be honest dwarfs any SOLG deal in terms of importance. But a $3bln+ investment in mining is large for Ecuador and I suspect the Chinese will use leverage / deal making on the free trade discussions to ensure they benefit from certain commitments on investments and provision of debt etc.
It's not all down to SOLG and their advisors. It's about several parties, whether that Chinese, Ecuador and SOLG or some other mix.
But FWIIW, I think SOLG/Maxit et al have been in discussions or in planning phase for the end game for well over a year. I think something was offered to BHP in June 2022 (they also met with lasso around then) and that was plan A which then collapsed leaving plan B. Just a hunch but think it explains the rapid action and volte-face in late July/Aug.
Shares in issue and Mcap wrong...hmmm...