The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
There are real risks in Ecuador as with Chile and Peru etc. If the Chinese are brave enough to get mining in Ecuador through mirador etc then why shouldn't they be rewarded (or allowed) to take on ENSA/Cascabel. Ultimately, they have already proven their worth and commitment. What's the answer to American interest??
Anglo American plc and their 44 billion market cap.... easy... just stock a 75p bid in and it's yours.
Job done.
Thanks Italian and Paul, things certainly developing fast, See you in a week, right airplane mode on au revoir ;))
Nothing conclusive, or anyway nothing we could not have considered ourselves based on the official information. Perhaps just the Ecuadorian government angle is an additional variable, assuming that really a takeover is escalated to a matter of international clash with China.
Thank you TheItalian for taking time to post, very much appreciated.
Italian, thanks for posting.
Instead, Mather and then Cuzzubo plumped for royalty deals with Franco Nevada and then Osisko, designed to provide SolGold with upfront finance in exchange for conceding profits once the mine is in operation. The royalty arrangements angered both Newcrest and BHP leading to boardroom clashes. Mather said in a YouTube interview recently the majors want us to pump out cheap equity and by way of their pre-emption rights take control of the company without having to offer the sort of premium one would expect with this sort of …. Recruiting the Chinese has certainly ratcheted up the bid tension - with action probable in the first half of 2023. But a fly in the ointment that few have considered is the reaction to any Chinese takeover by Washington or the Ecuadorian government. The Chinese have overtaken the US to become the largest overseas investor in Ecuador. The South American country’s first large-scale copper mine, the Mirador project operated by a subsidiary of Chinese consortium CRCC-Tongguan, began production in mid-2019. But recently the wind has been blowing the other way with many in Ecuador, as elsewhere, angered by onerous interest rates charged by the Chinese for loans designed to cement Beijing’s global trade offensive. As a result, the Americans are no longer viewed with as much suspicion as they once were. Last year, the US International Development Finance Corporation struck a deal to help Ecuador repay billions in loans to China and boost development in exchange for excluding Chinese companies from its telecom networks. The US cause has been helped by the election of centre-right businessman Guillermo Lasso as Prime Minister after years of rule by left-leaning administrations. What will Lasso’s position be if the Chinese look like acquiring SolGold? Will he come under any pressure from the US? Another wild card is linked to the widespread opposition to mining in Ecuador, especially by indigenous communities who tend to live in areas where minerals are found. Last month, there were huge demonstrations in Ecuador’s capital Quito by protestors who want to block six gold-mining concessions in the Choco Andino forest. They cited threats to water sources, nature and their local businesses. Lasso will have to play his cards carefully despite his stated intention that he wants to boost mining in Ecuador to make it less dependent on oil. The battle of Solgold is reaching a climax but, frankly, anything could happen.
London is awash with rumours of a bidding war between Jiangxi, the largest copper producer in China on the one side, and BHP - possibly in alliance with Newcrest - on the other. BHP and Newcrest have been shareholders since 2016 with about 13.5% each. Jiangxi isn’t in yet, but SolGold said last week that a share raise worth $36 million would bring in China’s largest copper producer, which would speak for 6.3% on completion of the deal. A new balance of power has emerged at SolGold with Bob Sangha, head of Maxit, propelled as a key player with his firm conducting a strategic review - viewed as shorthand for a mandate to sell of all or parts of Cascabel in the new year. The big change is the planned merger of SolGold with Cornerstone Capital Resources unveiled in October which will give Maxit a 5% shareholding, and remove Cornerstone as a minority shareholder at the asset level. Instead, Cornerstone, now an ally of Sangha, could take shares in SolGold and put two directors on the board. Well-place City sources say the sudden departure of CEO Darryl Cuzzubbo after less than a year in the job on November 12 was a result of a new and powerful alliance between small shareholders such as Maxit, Cornerstone, Berry Street Capital and SolGold founder Nick Mather (4%) who is still on SolGold’s board despite stepping down as CEO 13 months ago. Apparently, Mather has given up the idea of developing Cascabel independently and has agreed instead to bring in the Chinese for a face-off with BHP/Newcrest. Sources said the decision to drop Cuzzubbo and delay both the Cascabel definitive feasibility study and the Porvenir preliminary economic assessment was rooted in a desire to make SolGold/Cascabel more appealing to a bidder by shrinking overheads. It would also accelerate the sales process - which might have been more difficult if Cuzzubbo had remained in place. The last two years have seen as series of spats at SolGold with Mather and his allies determined not to give BHP and Newcrest creeping control of the company via equity that would dilute the stakes of smaller players.
.. sprinkles ...on your turkey lol
Happy for them to take SolGold, as long as the regionals are demerged first.
Bubble, I'm afraid that reference is lost on me. Sorry to ask, but could you explain?
Miss Golightly has the sprinkles addicknt
In fact London's so 'awash with rumours', that the share price is up a massive 1.29%.
Coming from me, I know this will seem unlikely, but SH's observation about seasoning is spot-on.
Building for a reason and that's not production
Book building nicely
Apparently there was a footnote to that piece that was left off and that was that no bid would take place until the AGM in 23 because it would take until then to sort out the diverse book !!
Maybe no one told them it’s going to production?
Thanks Paul
Just curious, is this the same section of that particular publication who said:
Joint BHP-Newcrest bid for SolGold 'within months'
The smart money is on a joint bid for London-listed SolGold by BHP and Newcrest Mining, as early as June.
If so, interested to read, but will have copious seasoning to hand...
I don’t have access, can anyone help?
https://www.mining-journal.com/london-to-a-brick/opinion/1444213/battle-for-solgold-heading-for-dramatic-climax
If it is labelled as an A trade it's both a buy and sell, but the transaction is only reported once. The system for assigning buy/sell labels then has to make a judgement call comparing the transaction price to the middle of the best offer/bid spread. It's crude, and doesn't really mean much. Hence you often get blocks of A trades falling one side or the other of the estimated middle. With O trades involving MMs, it's more meaningful to attribute 'buy' or 'sell' as that's the actual action taken by an investor in each case.
One thing is and always has been clear. There are no 'Algos' moving the share price. If MMs have work to do, they'll get it done, but not by trading 150 shares at a time with others!
As with the BS (IMO) about the strategic review leading to an imminent bid, one should DYOR and make up your own mind, but in the case of A vs O trades, there really isn't any mystery or guess work
Wait...... are you telling me buys and sells are matched on the stock exchange, and it isn’t those pesky market makers accumulating a shedload of shares in every FTSE company in order to manipulate the price of each and every company in order to screw us poor investors?
The intricacies of trading are not my thing and I've always tended to ignore them, even when I worked in the City. That sort of stuff was left to the brokers.
Lol I’d to ask others before I finally got it
DBW, gotcha...thanks and apologies for being a bit thick.
1 trade news tomorrow or Thursday gla ,NM likes Thursdays lol!!:):)