Senior Share Chat (SNR)

Cp2891

Well, I think another bid is even less likely than I did yesterday. Advent have said they won't be bidding. You can hold and get given 298p in a few months time, assuming nothing goes wrong. Or sell and incur the bid offer spread and commission. I'm a seller now.

Do you sell now, or do you wait till takeover?

Agreed. £3 is patsy capitulation

As regular readers of this thread will know I am a shareholder and its nice to see a firm, agreed offer because the uncertainty is reduced. But I was hoping for more. In recent weeks the shares have been over 312p and I put on a limit order to sell at 320p which was never executed. That's that I think they are worth. I'm not very hopeful that a counter offer will be made although I do remember the succession of higher bids that Spectris received in Q4 2025 before it was finally taken over. I'm holding for now, happy with the profit and have to admit I am being greedy !

Most of this morning SNR had been down but never by more than 4p (i.e. 285.5p per share). Moments before the offer was announced at 12:56 pm today, people were buying at 286.5. After the announcement the price spiked up a bit - at 12:57 pm there were small buys at 296 and 300 which is the highest price so far today. Since then the price has slipped back - moments ago the spread was 291 / 292.

There are pre-conditions to the Blackstone/Tinicum offer - see the announcement. If it were a "done deal" without any such conditions, SNR would probably be trading at a discount of about 5% to the 300p offer price, i.e. at about 285. The current spread of 291 / 292 suggests that the market thinks that Advent might come in with a higher offer. We know that on Thursday 5 March Advent announced that their most recent proposal at that time had been 272p per SNR share (comprising 270p in cash plus the right for shareholders to retain any 2025 final dividend of up to 2p per share).

Do Advent want SNR so much that they'll increase their offer from about 270 to in excess of 300? Since this afternoon's announcement many more shares have been sold than bought so maybe a lot of people think that the chances of an Advent counter-bid are low.

I've never had any SNR shares. Right now I'm not intending to buy any, but I'm watching the situation and might change my mind.

Note that on Friday 27 March Advent's put-up-or-shut-up deadline was extended by 3 weeks to 5 pm on Friday 17 April. Incidentally, on Tuesday 31 March the Blackstone/Tinicum put-up-or-shut-up deadline had been extended by only 9 days to 5 pm on Thursday 9 April.

I remind everyone of my comment here at 09:21 on 17 March when I pointed out that SNR was only 5p above Advent's Indicative 272p offer price. Very well done to anybody who bought about three weeks ago at under 280. Since then there were two good buying opportunities, but one was only very brief:

- If I remember correctly, there was a bad day for the markets generally in the week ending Friday 27 March when it was possible to buy SNR in the low 260's. Congratulations to anyone who did that.

- At 8:55 am on Wednesday 1 April Arcline (the third of the identified potential bidders) announced that they were pulling out. Within a minute of that announcement, SNR's spread fell from 288.5 / 289.5 to 268.0 / 273.5. By 9:01 am it had recovered to 288 / 290. Congratulations to anyone who was able to take advantage of that brief window of opportunity of just a minute or two and managed to buy at under 285.

The share price action suggests the market thinks the Board will not agree terms with any of the three parties. If that is the case one would expect the price to fall back. However, the Board has postponed it's buy-back programme during the negotiation period but would start it if there was no bid for the company. That's £40.0m or about 14.5 million shares even a this price so that will soak up any loose stock. I read the report and accounts yesterday and they have only taken only £13.2m into the accounts for the, up to £50m, contingent consideration on the sale of Aerostructures. To quote "Directors do not expect the amount receivable to be materially lower, although it could be materially higher".

Senior is possibly a buy at today's price but it will certainly be a buy when/if it falls back on the lack of a bid.

There's an error in my previous comment at 09:21 today - apologies. This is what the pre-penutlimate paragraph should have said:

- "With three known potential bidders, surely SNR at about 275 is a bargain with potential for a gain of more than 10% in a relatively short time if there's an announcement of an intention to make a formal offer at 303."

Advent International is one of three entities who known to be consoidering making a formal bid for SNR. About half an hour after the market closed on Thursday 5 March they announced that their last proposal was 272p per SNR share, comprising 270p in cash plus the right for shareholders to retain any 2025 final dividend of up to 2p per share. (SNR had already announced a proposed FY25 final dividend of 2.15p per share so Advent said that if a dividend exceeding 2p is paid, their possible offer price would be reduced by by 0.15p per share).

The declared interested parties' put-up-or-shut-up deadlines are Friday 27 March for Advent, Tuesday 31 March for the Tinicum/Blackstone consortium and Wednesday 1 April for Arcline Investment Management. In each case the deadline is 5 pm.

SNR's Friday 27 February announcement of offer approaches and Advent's announcement at 12:51 that day that it's an interested party led to SNR closing up 50.5 at 308. They'd been higher that day, and on 5 March which was the day that Arcline's interest was announced they closed at 311 (and had been even higher) despite most equities having fallen since hostilities in the Middle East began on 28 February.

It's normal for potential bid target companies' share prices to fall in the period after the initial announcement of a potential bid approach until there's news that the bidder and the target have agreed a takeover price in principle or the bidder goes hostile, but SNR has had an exceptionally big fall since 5 March:

- From about 8:15 am today the spread was 275 to 276.

- At 8:18 am it was just 274.5 to 275, only about 3p above Advent's possible offer price.

- Whilst it had recovered to 277 to 278, moments ago it was 274.5 to 275.5.

With three known potential bidders, surely SNR at about 275 is a bargain with potential for a gain of more than 10% in a relatively short if there's an announcement of an intention to make a formal offer at 303.

It is of course possible that all interested parties withdraw. If this happens, SNR is likely to drop to 250 or lower.

Finally, I remind everyone that the four week put-up-or-shut-up deadline can be extended if the consent of the Takeover Panel is obtained and such consent will be given if more time is needed for the target and the predator(s) to negotiate and/or for the predator(s) to do their due diligence.

Share Price ..308.00...50.50 (19.61%) ...Bid: 304.00Ask: 305.00...Spread: 1.00 (0.329%)

Market Cap: £1.27b

Up 60% Since I sold out in July .

They fell back to 165p in November 2025 up 87% since then .

Not much chat on this one .

Well done Taverham & Mr.Picky posting buy's at the time.

Bid Approach

"Advent International Limited, in its capacity as adviser to Advent International, L.P., the manager of and / or adviser to certain private equity funds ("Advent") notes the recent press speculation and confirms that it is considering a possible offer for Senior.

Berenberg starts Senior with 'buy' - price target 275 pence

(I think Berenberg followed them in the past.)

Deutsche Bank Research raises Senior price target to 220 (195) pence - 'buy'

Now 187p and has dropped below the 190p I sold for 3 weeks ago .

When it topped out at 202p twice after the sale I thought I had sold to early again .

Another short potion taken last week shown above .

https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/LON/SNR/

RNS today .

Senior lifts interim dividend by 13% as profit climbs and sales grow

Mon, 04th Aug 2025

(Alliance News) - Senior PLC on Monday said its outlook for the full year was unchanged, backed by growth in its Aerospace and Flexonics divisions.

The Hertfordshire, England-based engineering firm said pretax profit rose 28% to GBP22.8 million in the half year to June 30 from GBP17.8 million a year prior.

Revenue increased 2.6% to GBP371.2 million from GBP361.7 million a year ago, or by 5% at constant currency.

Basic earnings per share grew 34% to 5.07 pence from 4.69p, while the interim dividend was boosted 13% to 0.85p per share from 0.75p.

"For our continuing business, our Aerospace division sales and profitability have grown, with good performance in the first half of the year. Our outlook for the full year is unchanged," said Chief Executive David Squires.

In addition, Squires said Flexonics delivered a strong set of results, outperforming end markets, with a full-year outcome expected to be "broadly similar to 2024."

"Overall, on a constant currency basis, the board's expectations for the continuing group for the full year are unchanged," Squires added.

In July, Senior said it had agreed to sell its Aerostructures division to Sullivan Street Partners, a London-based mid-market buyout firm, for a total enterprise value of up to GBP200 million.

The transaction is expected to complete by the end of 2025.

Shares in Senior fell 3.8% to 186.60 pence each in London on Monday.

Closed 195p + 4.26%

The analysts who now expect the price to increase by 3% to 201p now seem to call this one well.

A great shame if yet another British defence company gets snaffled by private equity, broken up and its technology sold on to another American company.

Advent International, the large private equity firm, issued an announcement via RNS at 12:51 today which caused SNR shares to spike up almost immediately by 8p from 307 to 315 and a flurry of buy transactions. Moments ago the spread was 312 to 313.

I quote they key part of Advent's announcement:

- "Advent International Limited, in its capacity as adviser to Advent International, L.P., the manager of and / or adviser to certain private equity funds ("Advent") notes the recent press speculation and confirms that it is considering a possible offer for Senior.

There can be no certainty that an offer will be made for Senior nor as to the terms on which any offer might be made."

Under the takeover rules, this announcement has triggered a put-up-or-shut-up deadline. It states that Advent must, by not later than 5.00 pm (London time) on 27 March 2026, either announce a firm intention to make an offer for SNR or announce that it does not intend to make an offer.

Right now my resources are fully deployed elsehwere. I hope to be able to exit another situation at a good profit next week. Once I'm out of that, I'll have some liquidity to buy into SNR. Meanwhile, I'll be watching it closely.

Unless another interested party shows its hand, SNR's shares are likely to dribble back a few pence whilst Advent try to negotiate a takeover price with SNR so I expect that for the next couple of weeks I'll still be able to buy in at something like the current price which is probably significantly lower than whatever would be attractive enough to SNR's directors for them to recommend to shareholders.

Hang in there for 3.50, fellas. Of course, DYOR / what they hell would I know? IMHO

But ... strategic acquisition, future growth, competitive bids ... nome sayin?

Have a look at ALK.

A really remarkable opportunity.

That was a pleasant surprise for a wet Friday morning, that rise is enough for me to take profit. Major dilemma is where to put it? Im leaning towards BOWL.

Dunno ... this time it might be serious. Target price?

Well said Picky.

I don’t trust this board of directors to EVER recommend a shareholder value maximising takeover. Their piggy little faces 🐷 are fully submerged in the “remuneration trough”. A new farmer in charge is the very last thing these porkers want.

27/2/23 I posted,

"On a near term PE measure Senior still looks overpriced.

But my view for the last couple of years was that Senior has the production capabilities and markets to recover to previous highs. Nothing flashy, perhaps more bid interest along the way, and in my experience of the post 2008 recovery, very hard to trade. I'll simply hold my stake unless I see a significant problem flagged in the trading updates.

I expect a bumpy ride but to look back on a good compound annual return on my investment by 2025-26."

Well, after three years it's a decent compound return, 14% p.a. (incl. dividends).

This morning, I've top sliced 10% of my holding for a different opportunity, but I'll give the balance a few more years. I think the growth phase has been delayed on my original expectation, but it seems the market is still willing to pay a high PE in the mean time. This sort of industrial company is thin on the ground these days, and product development in the aerospace industry is a slow process. But when the two incumbents have 10 year order books, I can be patient.

This is what is driving the share price upwards towards new highs. Amazing that there is not more interest or discussion around this excellent company. As Europe is increasingly abandoned and now even threatened by our former ally, the United States, aerospace and defence stocks like this one will get a further boost as Europe ramps up defence spending. Not a great PESTEL situation, obvs, but very good for the Snr.L share price.

DYOR

Great news! https://www.seniorplc.com/~/media/Files/S/Senior-PLC/press-release/2026/completion_of_sale_of_aerostructures_business_050126.pdf

The Aerostructure business for sale was already in the public domain, the rest of the TU was positive with results due to exceed expectations, the caveat was some supply issues which they were actively working to resolve, so I can see no real reason for such a strong reaction. I would love the MM’s to explain, especially as the price was marked down immediately.

It suggests the market knows more than the ED’s who bought recently - bizarre.

Has anybody got any better knowledge of MM’s and how they react and price things as the update did not suggest to me that yesterday’s MM’s price was 10% too high!

Reasons for the Drop

While the exact immediate trigger for the steep fall today is not explicitly stated as a single event, the following factors are relevant:

Market Reaction to Trading Update: Senior PLC released a trading update today stating it expects its full-year performance to be "comfortably above previous expectations" due to strong trading in its Aerospace and Flexonics divisions. Often, the market reacts in unexpected ways to news, and investors may be interpreting the results differently or taking profits, especially given previous market concerns about the cyclical nature of the business and a recent run-up in price.

Softening Land Vehicle Markets: The company noted that the land vehicle markets within its Flexonics division have softened in the second half of 2025 and are expected to remain soft in 2026, which may have contributed to investor caution despite overall growth.

General Market Conditions: The broader market context can also influence individual stock movements. European markets experienced some volatility recently due to global economic factors, which can affect the share price of a manufacturing and engineering firm like Senior.

Broader Context

Analyst Outlook: The general consensus among analysts remains positive, with a median target price suggesting a potential upside from recent prices.

Strategic Focus: The company is progressing with the sale of its Aerostructures business, a move analysts view as a "pivotal moment" to increase operating margins and focus on higher-growth areas, with completion expected by the end of 2025. This ongoing transition introduces some uncertainty.

Investors should monitor official company news and market analysis for the latest information on the share price movement. You can find more financial data and news on

IC think its because the bit they are selling is the part thats growing + the delay

It has happened before, positive update and SP drops. I am certain it will get back to £2+

Non Exec Directors who purchased shares recently also did not expect this reaction, cannot see any excessive sales today, so why?

Bit of a jump this morning ...? News?

Darn it the soufflé is sinking

Still, above 2 quid and looking good as a long term hold. World needs more planes

For context i’ll be putting my proceeds into other undevalued UK shares that could be takeover targets like

RS Group

Spirax

Wizz Air

Greggs

BME

Filtronic

I also sold half my position this morning +15%

I still think shares are attractive

probably a takeover target also given where larger aerospace peers trade.

buyback will help given small caps can get lost and need a buyer daily to get shares moving.

total buyback is probably 40m + 50m in a tear so above 10%

Actually, I sold half my holding. The shares have had a great run since the AGM which I attended. The sale was well flagged in advance and comes as no surprise only the price, part of which is dependent on performance over the rest of this year. Nothing wrong with the remaining businesses or the management but there is a fair price for everything. I did dial into the conference call and the only new bit I gleaned is that they don't think they will pay tax on the deal. Share buy back probably starts December.

Sale of Aerostructures looks like a real positive to me - expecting 10p on sp today. - We shall see - depends if the market already knew.

Probably good news this morning as SNR has finally sold its aerostructures business for 200m and will do a buyback of atleast 40m with initiL proceeds

takeover rumours if shares don’t jump today?

The contracts keep rolling in, this could easily be back to a price starting with a 2 again soon, time for some broker upgrades, and or another take-over rumour !

Heading back north where it belongs DYOR GLA

Tariff impact "limited and manageable"; "growth in line", and revenue up 3%. Steady as she goes! PER now 12 and PEG 0.6. This has become cheap.

Thanks Picky.

To which I’d add the likelihood of being acquired for a price around high end of analyst estimates within 2 years. I see it in the tea leaves imho GLA DYOR

JPMorgan raises Senior price target to 185 (165) pence - 'neutral'

Just spent most of the morning dialled into two on-line conferences, first the annual results secondly the Investor Event. No point in regurgitating the annual results - its all about the future. The sale of Aerostructures will be transformational. It will take gearing to the bottom or even below their range of 0.5x - 1.5x and leave them concentrating on their Fluid Conveyance and Thermal Management (FCTM) business. Their vision is low double digit margins (perhaps more in the short term) cash conversion >85% and ROCE 15 - 20%. They say that pricing will be an important part of the margin growth (Peel Hunt somewhat sceptical) but with a wide product ranging serving a very wide range of customers they are confident, not least because they own the IP rights to many of these products. These are a "medium term" targets which they agreed was 3-5 years. Expect some bolt on acquisitions in the short term as well.

If they could achieve all this the shares are cheap, with cash being generated on a big scale offering dividend growth and share buy-backs. The question is how much to discount this phenomenal transformation. To me this is a safe hold for the next year. We should see aerostructures sold (perhaps an announcement in months) and better results, second half weighted (say 40:60 split). Then we will have a clearer picture --it will be interesting to see how the analysts respond; if they don't think the transition is credible the shares will drift and the short sellers will make money. But if the shorters buy back just sit back and enjoy the ride.

If they can sell aerostructures for 15x EV/EBITA - thats 150m which clears the group net debt. Senior can then do share buybacks.

Given the moves in European Defence stocks recently, Rheinmetall +15% today, +10x since base in 2022.. surely Senior will see some upside in demand.

For the full year, Aerostructures is expected to improve from a loss making position in 2024 to an operating profit range of £9m to £11m in 2025, with the large majority of that being earned in H2. Why sell ?i is it just to reduce the large debt

Looking good

CMD (Investor event) tomorrow in the morning aswell :)

Anyone else looking forward to the results tomorrow..

Boeing delays probably impacted them still but could be surprises

Correct - Seeing so much UK takeover activity now aswell

Macquarie bidding for Renewi, Apollo bidding for TI Fluids, International Paper buying DS Smith

probably alot more bids going on in UK diversified industrials in the background

Action is needed as it has stagnated since 2021 and no longer offers a good dividend. The board should increase the pressure on the captain in charge.

Lonestar bid 200p in 2021 for Senior plc, 40% above the current share. At some point the existing shareholders Will have to pressure the board to do something. I suspect a takeover is imminent with either PE or Ametek (US competitor) waiting in the wings… Thoughts?

Delighted to be wrong.........

However the background remains one of lower civil air investment, and in the short term US election uncertainty. Should not shift much today, but given time.....

Strike at boeing over sp will rise todat by a few p imv.

Invest ace.

I trade on lvl 3 my freind, yes our Mary's a bit tiresome but never gave me a bad word, I chat to him/her ect.

May I pointout that there was 102 trades at 119s for 165,000 shares, buys and sells, 43 were buys total about 70k,there was 2 5000s buys who bought cannot be attributable to Mary or other persons.

Not being arguementive pal.

The news today seems to suggest the Boeing dispute may be more troublesome than expected.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y064gz1e3o

PE last offered around 200p and air travel has boomed since then. Small matter of Boeing to be sorted.

That’s a significant purchase from Ian King, good to see confidence