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Liberum only raised their SP target price from 140p to 200p last week and I suspect their estimated revenue was raised to US$192m on Stockopedia last week as well.
IC estimates was shared on 11th January 2021 and no mention was made of Liberum raising their target price then.
In November 2020 Stockopedia added SLP to their investment club and their revenue target price for 2021 at that time was US$137m.
I'm happy with their original 140p target price so in my view no market expectations were missed.
Watch this hit £1.25 February 28th :)
PS. I've posted throughout in default GBP £££'s.
Tsk! Should have been in USD $$$'s throughout.
Changes nothing, except the currency symbol. It still all hangs together and calculates out.
"No idea where your £192m+ comes from?"
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Oops not £'s sorry - USD $$'s.
ie., $192m+
From Stockopedia
The 192 million is Liberiums updated call Baz
We have been tracking the Rhodium price quite well for a while so could see a good bounce from these levels to reflect the nice jump in Rhodium prices.
Velo, are you sure your figures are correct?
Liberum's original full year revenue target price was US$145m and IC's target expectation was US$175m.
No idea where your £192m+ comes from?
" The Q3 is showing H1 to be circa £85m. "
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Sorry, Not a typo this time but a slip of the tongue. Been posting of late, on another forum of expecting a Q3 next Thursday.
So, should have been Q2 above, obviously, and not Q3.
Xtr P Rhod (XRH0)
Up 13.64% today.
" The Q3 is showing H1 to be circa £85m. "
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Not a typo this time but a slip of the tongue.
Been posting of late, on another board of an upcoming Q3 due next Thursday, so meant Q2 above obviously, not Q3.
" but registered forever as a huge day's low (52p?) "
Typo.
Should have inserted another "intraday" before the word " day's ".
" 90 target in the short term, the results were 25% down from expectations and no special dividend. "
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Whilst I'm bowled over by the trading achievements in Q3, and will take no prisoners in my praise of those achievements, I'm a little concerned by the barbs included in comments against the poster of the above comment.
I get what the poster is highlighting, but think due to the brief one-liner some may have missed her point (if indeed the ID handle is female).
The key subject word is the 5th from the end: ie., "expectations", which I interpret as analysts market guidance forecasts "expectations".
Not hers, mine or anyone else's - but the expectations of the market ie., in this instance Liberium's.
The market forecast expectation is for revenue of circa £192+m for the full year.
The Q3 is showing H1 to be circa £85m. Roughly doubling that, falls short of market "expectations".
That's all that's being highlighted.
Couldn't care less that an analyst expects £192m revenue when last year, revenue was £114m, yet at the halfway mark this year, revenue is right nearby already at £85m!
If full year revenue comes in at, ooh I dunno 'only' £170m I will be seriously impressed. (The net profit even on that lower than expectations forecast is likely to be so high I dare not post my thoughts on my personal expectations of it!)
The analysts won't like it, and by extension the market won't - but I will, because the strides of increase each and every Y-O-Y particularly net profit are gargantuan, and I for one will be over the moon.
If you think market expectations will be met, first ascertain what those expectations are, then post your opinion of what you feel revenue and net profit might actually come in for the full year.
The poster above has done just that, and she receives barbs, and mansplainng? Of course beg to differ with her opinion, that's what forums are for.
Example:
Last September, even though I was expecting the SP to temporarily drop on the reveal, I tracked down a media analysts review to discover what they thought and immediately knew why the SP had most likely dropped, despite mighty impressive results.
The media analyst said SLP had disappointed by failing (failing!!!!?) to meet market expectations. And down the SP went, massively intraday as I recall in a flash intraday crash that lasted seconds but registered forever as a huge day's low (52p?)
I'd be most grateful if anyone has a link for the full version of Liberium's analysis report so I can read the original latest forecasts. If not to hand I will email them to see if a freebie is available just by accepting their email links. Some do some don't unless you pay up. I'm after a freebie :)
150p by the end of Feb seems very ambitious given that the only news we are expecting during Feb will make the Company less valuable. What do you know that we don't?
Hi Nimrod!
Those CAGR numbers are scarcely credible, aren't they? But they are true.
I thank the stock market gods that I came across SLP 4 years ago!
Holding up well today. Normally see some volatility for a day or two after a set of excellent results, before we continue on the uptrend again.
Has already had a pullback over the last week so would expect limited downside with todays results more than justifying the current valuation.
Compounded Annual Growth Rate over six years as shown on Stockpedia: -
Total Revenue 19%, Operating Profit 73%, Net Profit 89.1%, EPS Reported 92.1%, EPS Normalised 98.1%,
Cash Flow 47.2%,
Sylvania Platinum Limited (LON:SLP) shareholders, with the covering analyst delivering a significant upgrade to their statutory estimates for the company. The analyst greatly increased their revenue estimates, suggesting a stark improvement in business fundamentals.Following the upgrade, the current consensus from Sylvania Platinum's lone analyst is for revenues of US$192m in 2021 which - if met - would reflect a major 68% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are presumed to shoot up 147% to US$0.36. Prior to this update, the analyst had been forecasting revenues of US$145m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.25 in 2021. There has definitely been an improvement in perception recently, with the analyst substantially increasing both their earnings and revenue estimates.Check out our latest analysis for Sylvania Platinumearnings-and-revenue-growthAIM:SLP Earnings and Revenue Growth January 29th 2021With these upgrades, we're not surprised to see that the analyst has lifted their price target 43% to AU$3.55 per share.Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analyst is definitely expecting Sylvania Platinum's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 68% growth ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 21% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.0% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Sylvania Platinum is expected to grow much faster than its industry.The Bottom LineThe biggest takeaway for us from these new estimates is that the analyst upgraded their earnings per share estimates, with improved earnings power expected for this year. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for this year, and sales are expected to grow faster than the wider market. Given that the consensus looks almost universally bullish, with a substantial increase to forecasts and a higher price target, Sylvania Platinum could be worth investigating further.With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2023, which can be seen for free on our platform here
Also should acknowledge that market wise ferrochrome prices have absolutely rocketed the last couple of weeks. If they stay at these levels Samancor will be forced to restart mothballed production or risk losing substantial market share. This is good for SLP 2022 production guidance. They have proven they can produce at over 80kozpa under the right conditions.
More disappointment on the projects. They still are yet to submit the Volspruit license applications and we'll be lucky to see a technical report this year
After reviewing a good 15-20 of these over the years they are good results but the market expects good results and these are a pretty much in line in my veiw. The SP has run from 80p to over 100p just this month. In the face of rising volatility that's a good performance. I don't expect much reaction given SLP are producing comprehensive reports regularly, enough for anyone to reasonably predict the next quarters results.
My observations from this quarter:
- Can't think of many companies with EBITDA margin of 67% and almost no capex. Its lower than what I expected (I was hoping for 74%). Revenue was spot on but I was well off on costs
- However the implied tax rate was exceptionally low this quarter which means that at the NPAT and EPS level I'm pretty close
- Unit costs have not recovered from pre covid levels and are unusually high given the production levels. This is likely to reflect the huge amount of material they have moved this quarter. Plant feed was nearly 30kt higher than the previous record (Q220) but production 1koz lower
- They did very well to get that many ounces out in the quarter which is seasonally the lowest. That bodes well for full year guidance. They must be scraping the tailings and lower grade ROM particular hard
A couple of unusual typos in this edition:
- They are no longer reporting revenue from by products so revenue (4E) is actually now Revenue (6E) but is mislabelled.
- Note 1 also hasn't been updated. They really should decide on 4E or 6E and apply that consistently. Revenue is now 6E but prices 4E
Sylvania finished the half year with record revenues of $85m and EBITDA of $57.9m driven by a good operational performance and a basket price up 23% H/H. If we look ahead to the second half, the basket price is already 24% higher again, and EBITDA will be up 44% H/H. Cash balance swelled to $67m despite the large build up in receivables as the pipeline is rebuild post the lockdown. Excellent position to pay an estimated special dividend of 4.1 cents at the interims and 4 cents at the final results (double last year). Remains top pick in the space.
Projected Sales 2021 $192m / EBITDA $147m - Dividend 6.2 cents
Projected Sales 2022 $210m / EBITDA $164m - Dividend 6.1 cents
Projected Sales 2023 $230m / EBITDA $184m - Dividend 7.7 cents
Have a day off claire, production still increasing and cash balance still looking strong. Might need to remind you we are still in a pandemic that has hit RSA very hard, I think SLP are performing strongly under the current circumstances, not long til we are out of this storm and then full steam ahead. Buy
Considering the incredibly challenging Covid conditions in South Africa the board have done an amazing job looking after their staff whilst maintaining business. Also like that they are putting in mitigation around power interruptions. Imagine what will be achieved when this storm is exited from.
First impressions of the results was one of disappointment but you don't have to go far to see the company is still on target for the 70,000 ounces for the year. The basket price has improved and all in all the bank balance is 10% higher so a steady set of results. I think that 80p will not be reached and I don't think 200p will be reached in 2021 but I respect others views even if I think there wrong. The end of Feb in my opinion will show us closer to 120p than 80p and I continue to maintain my hold position.
Who was expecting $25m? Dream on. Read the RNS and you will see the announcement on the special dividend.
"Financially the Company continued to benefit from the stronger PGM basket price in recent months and a decision will be taken on the windfall dividend at the review of the interim accounts at the forthcoming Board meeting in February 2021."
Last year half-year results announcement was 17th Feb so expect around same time.
was expecting $25M, we got $20.3 million = so 20% shortfall
and the 5% is due to lack of dividend confirmation.