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Hi 42Trader!
Since you asked, IMO you're being greedy.
You do realise how good the next quarterly results - due in only a month - are going to be here (bar a major surprise)?
Just take a look at the average basket price for this quarter!
SB is certainly not for the faint hearted or inexperienced. It does has it uses though if you are disciplined. Easy to check prices, set alerts and short a share. Having an advanced chart (like IG do) its also very useful as other charts do not have the same functions and are often wrong in data.
Back to SLP, I thought I may have bought today having an alert set at 112p. Am I being greedy or just need to wait a little longer?
"Archegos Capital, a private investment firm, was behind billions of dollars worth of share sales that captivated Wall Street on Friday"
------[Financial Times]
Ditto. Naturally, events like this can impact prices across all markets (higher supply). I'll ride it out.
double top predicted the fall to the hammer and gaps up today all good news...
https://www.tradingview.com/x/fJofmkNl/
S
JLP has quite a lot of red flags on their balance sheet. I agree with TBTT that itis rather poor value right now (although I would not touch it).
SLP and THS are far better investments -- and better run.
JLP is no longer an early stage company, NNP, so there is no need for dilution as has been the case when the balance sheet was weak and couldn't be leveraged as now. Also, with some well known IIs on board, Colin can no longer afford to ride rough shod over the shareholders as he could with PIs. To get to where he wants? Like it or not, CB has been a very effective strategist in positioning JLP to take advantage of not just PGMs, where the JLP technical capability has won some major customers who had been supplying SLP, but of Copper, Lead and Zinc too just at the moment that demand for Copper is going sky high. And of course, JLP can export its technical capability anywhere there are tailings to process... Australia, Chile, Botswana, Namibia ... anywhere. BTW, an interesting article on Samancor and its tie up with SLP here: https://www.newframe.com/how-samancor-workers-were-allegedly-robbed-of-billions/
@TBTT, Leon is rather more than just a good salesman .. he is also a very well recognised and respected chemical engineer "Before joining Jubilee Leon was employed for 20 years within the Anglo American plc stable, of which 16 years were spent at Anglo Platinum. His last position was Head of Process Control and Instrumentation, where he defined and managed the automation and process control strategy for Anglo Platinum. He was a member of the Executive Process Committee, the Research and Development Council, and advisor to the asset optimisation initiative at Anglo Platinum. .... He is a member of the advisory board of the process engineering faculties at both the University of Pretoria and the University of Stellenbosch..." : https://wallmine.com/lse/jlp/officer/2008595/leon-coetzer
Hi Gotreal!
JLP is indeed a far superior option to EUA. But this is "damning with faint praise". I have simply massive doubts about EUA; I know way too much about Russia!
Back in the real world, I think JLP is a mixed bag. CEO Leon Coetzer is indeed a great salesman. But I'd like to see Colin Bird out of the Chairman's seat. The PGM assets are doing well enough. But I'd like to see hard evidence that their copper assets will deliver as pitched. And, frankly, I think it is a bit pricey right now.
So, I'll sit on the fence with JLP for now. Happy to be invested in THS and SLP. Sibanye also worth considering, if you can be bothered with owning US ADRs, which I can't.
Gotreal,
Doesn't change the fact that Colin Bird calls the shots at JLP, who in my experience will do whatever he feels like, irrelevant to whether it's in shareholders best interests, to get to where he wants. Once burnt, I would NEVER invest in a Colin Bird company again. Apart from that, it's a great opportunity. ;)
TBTT....I'm sure you won't mind me pointing it out ...... but you mentioned the third one yourself in the EUA thread at 25 Mar 2021 11:12 ..... JLP of course!
"Why the crazy ramping? Why the peddling of misinformation about both the realities of doing business in Russia and PGMs?
I'd suggest serious investors take a look at Sibanye Stillwater, Ange-American, SLP, THS and JLP. These are far superior PGM plays."
For those not aware of what Jubilee does, this is a great insight into their strategy, ethos and technological lead in diversified metals recovery from tailings (no mining risk) and to see the calibre of the CEO, Leon Coetzer . https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ZMNrNAfBc0 And Slater, Miton and Jupiter Asset Management are investors, for reassurance about corporate governance! The latest unaudited results are extraordinarily good. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t03LsWgC05o
There's also a cynical 90 day rule that is said to be the mantra of all the spread betting companies that runs:
On average 90% of all punters blow up their account losing 90% of their money within 90 days, so attractive offers are set as inducements lest they lose their money to a competitor because 90% of then are going to lose it all anyway.
Just have to look at the stats which show how many people loose money spread betting, it’s something like 80 to 90% of accounts loose money
Hi Twirl,
Many thanks for an illuminating post on spreadbetting.
I didn't want to comment on the original spreadbetting post as I'd posted enough as was
So your take on it is much appreciated. To save space I'll copy/paste a line from you and change the ending for my case:
You said:
"Made and lost a great deal but came out ahead."
I'm saying I:
- Made and lost a great deal but came out neutral/intact.
And from the research I've read, I consider my end result a success because I didn't blow up my account.
- So in my book, your record of achievement comes under star performer!
Way to go Twirl! :)
I shut down entirely by Oct 2019 after almost 2 years day trading/swing trading, as decided time away from spread bettting would be most beneficial in my case.
It was quite 'sweaty' getting back to neutral base, so the moment I achieved that, I quit whilst I was 'ahead" :)
Enjoyed reading your post; informative :)
Will still use them in the future but tentatively (IG/ Spreadex), as how else will one short a stock when circumstances warrant it? :)
.
Several posters have warned against using spread bets and for inexperienced investors I agree.
I started investing in 1984 and spread bets on AHT(in particular) 2004. Made and lost a great deal but came out ahead. I have had spread bets for SLP since October 2019 and have made a good profit both banked and on paper. I also have SLP in an ISA. Also well in profit on a couple more Co's.
For what its worth my views on spread bets are as follows
1 Many see them as a short term vehicle - I dont. In fact the s bet companies assume short term. The UK market is basically short term which is not for me the best way to make serious money.
2 Whilst there is temptation to over expose - dont do it. Always maintain control over s bets so the drops can be covered - keep cash in reserve.However the s bet margins on non major stocks are much higher than they used to be and on SLP recently 100% for IG. So why not buy instead of s bet?
3 Tax is not paid on s bet profits. My expectation is to make considerably more profit than the CGT allowance and as I prefer to pay CGT it makes sense to use a vehicle that avoids it. Thats the main reason for me. This advantage is offset to a small extent by the quarterly rollover and disadvantage entry/exit prices.
Unless one can resist the temptation to over expose one should avoid s bets.
Happy maintaining my long position here.
Since that sp max on 10th March of 132.5p the sp has dropped by about 14%.
However, the 4E basket price on 10th March virtually was the same as yesterday.
Africa Asia Capital reducing -
11th Jan RNS 18.7% down to 18% 16th Feb RNS 18% down to 15.9% 9th March RNS 15.9%% down to 13.9%
Prices of securities increase when demand outstrips supply, and the reverse. It sometimes has to do with business performance, but not necessarily.
Indeed, if someone wants the money, for whatever reason, and it's a big enough tranche, then the price will go lower. Fund managers have the problem all the time because they cannot simply deploy these vast sums in one go. So they have to gently ease in or out.
This discrepancy is effectively a market inefficiency.
This business is not broken. It is fully intact and very well run. I am not worried. In fact, I am rather happy about the opportunity events like these present.
Consider APPL in 2005. I noticed that they grew their net profits by 30% every quarter. Yet, it was off many people's radar and there was general negativity on the stock. I took a rather meaningful position, only to see it, at times, tank by 30%. The business was effectively thriving but the market had a lot of emotions around this company who went nearly bust. I took Charlie Munger's advice and ' just ride it out'. Ditto.
The rest is history. The cherry on top of the cake was the iPhone launch in 2007.
The lesson I learned is that as long as the business is intact, is not grossly overvalued and has quality management, then its rather safe to ride it out and keep holding. I was rather happy at the further discounts and increased the position further.
I don't see a demand for their product suddenly dwindle, but as the price of Rhodium shoots up, the risk of sudden downward movement increases. So that's something to consider. However, at current valuation levels the share price doesn't even reflect the Rhodium boom. It is also still extremely well managed and the board knows the business inside-out.
Want to flog me your holdings for 100.00p? Yes please!
Patience.
The stochastic is (for me) the most reliable indicator.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/MO6AvfYh/
Last time SLP hit oversold (and it is bang on) was back on July 3 2020 and look at the trend since then!
A more logical reason for this fall is nothing to do with the business or the fundamentals, it is a seller profit taking. If I have a million shares to offload who will buy them at 130p? Answer, no-one. Or 120p?...(hmm maybe), 115? Now ya talking.
Just my feel. I have no evidence of that. I could be wiped out if this tanks. Bought into PMO when it was at 118p back in Q1 of 2020 and watched it swallow dive down to 10p 6 months later. I finally exited with a 15% profit counting my lucky stars.
This isn`t PMO. I have this fair value at low 220s. Happy to wait, hold, and no loss of conviction here. Just Mr Market doing his thing.
The SLP ol` timers on here have seen it all before and no doubt are as relaxed as I am.
S
By any metrics used to ascertain valuations on stocks, of which I currently hold precisely 9, SLP is GROSSLY undervalued, no matter the quick spring up above the £1 level we’ve had here since the start of the year.
SLP as an investment is as watertight as, quite frankly, anything out there across ALL indices, and then some :)
When I set out to invest here for the first time a little over 10 years ago, I took a 10 year valuation view. That 10 year view expired roughly last year, and I have since, rightly so, readjusted my non-binding personal contract with SLP :) to a further 2 year view with a newly set, set of TP’s.
Why? Because as an investor we must all make decisions on what we see before us for the good of our own strategies. SLP is by far my longest term strategy to date, and not one I was particularly expecting to be so.
However, fundamentals here and in the broader spectrum of the market in which we operate are looking rosey, to say the least. In fact they are eye-wateringly f***ing amazing but I’m trying to keep it low key.
I have balls of steel (necessarily so, with the early years being invested here) and I have the vision of a falcon. I couldn’t care less about the daily swings, albeit I love hearing good commentary on the daily. There is ZERO doubt in my mind with respect to where the SP will be sitting come September this year. And it’s true north of here by quite some way.
I should also reiterate, I WILL be seeing my TP this year and shall take another view when it’s hit. Which it will be :)
Offmessage: IMO it will bounce, and keep on bouncing. I missed an opportunity around 70p to dip buy on a small dip, that was a mistake, and even more obviously a no brainer now than then.
No guarantees of course.
Bear in mind offmessage, that was a nice bullish candlestick pattern close tonight. A bullish spinning top with added weight because it's formed at the bottom of a down trend. A damn good omen going into Monday. And SLP does have form on chomping through bearish indicators and brearish shorter term trends too. I still have 2 differing shorter term time frames of bearish trend lines that perhaps are sympathetic to your view of maybe revisiting to your 109.
But to date SLP actively goes out of it's way to destroy good quality bearish indicators and trends. And opens the door wide to bullish indicators. You can't negotiate with SLP's SP when it wants to return to the Bullish path :)
So I'm siding with the candlesticks this weekend despite my personal view they are only 80/20% effective and you never know when the 20% failure rate will be the case at any given point.
Now is fine for a buy and hold investment but for me it's less attractive for a short term swing trade since I don't think we'll bounce far from this level - i've been wrong many times before so it's just my opinion but I think we'll test 1.09 in next few days.
Now is a good entry point, I think best buy yesterday was around 111 something or other p.
I bought in at 112.4p. I'm sure technically it could well have bummed to 109p. If you see a bargain, go for it. You'll probably never find the absolute bottom nor the top of any opportunity.
Markinvestor: £1.09 is where the next support is, the price bottomed there previously - look at the chart. I completey agree, the fundamentals look good, I'm not predicting the end of the uptrend. I'm just talking about the recent price action/chart pattern and speculating about where this dip might go to and a good entry point for a long position.
When you look at the maths of cfds, spread bets, and options, there really is only going to be one winner - and that's the broker and not the PI.
It's like betting evens on red when the roulette wheel has about 24 black numbers and only 12 red ones. Over a period of time you just can't win.