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" @velo - yes I am long"
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Ah, I see. So that negates my question I had for you. It was to do with the predominant trend of SLP.
If interested -
From what I've read in the financial media (books rather than the media) over the many years about amateur retail investors (I detest that derisory term, why not call us PI's?) the same mantra is reported over and over - that the vast majority of amateur retail investors (that's us :) lose money investing in the stockmarket - or maybe they meant those who attempt to trade rather than invest?
And it's usually given as the penchant the amateur retail investor has for going peversely long in a down trending stock!
I've witnessed this myself on some forums of the Big FTSE dullard stocks. The belief that a new low is an obvious bargain point, totally ignoring that the long term trend is bearish and had been for a lengthy period and has shown no signs of changing for the better in the longer term.
I was hoping you hadn't invested and had a dour opinion of the final outcome of this pullback because then I was going to ask you what your opinion was of: What is the predominant trend in SLP?
As you are long SLP you already know. (So IMO - therefore it's a tough job to lose money over the longer term by going long in a multi year, bullish uptrending stock of many a year, as long as one 'sits on one's hands'.
In other words, this pullback in a long term uptrending stock, ultimately, just has to be the zigging and zagging along the path of a generally uptrending stock.
I was hoping you were newish to SLP so I could test in live research, whether the constant refrain in the financial press has any legs, in that the majority of amateur investor/traders lose money on the stockmarket, rather than increase their wealth. Because the answer is simple. Never go short in an long term uptrending stock, just as investors should never go long in a long term bearish down trending stock. I thought your post was possibly indicating someone holding a view that SLP was now about to turn seriously longer term bearish, that's all.
@markinvestor - just technical, we've seen a breakdown of a head and shoulders pattern with a neckline at £1.19. The price has now broken down through the steeper trend line that had formed since the start of this year and may revert back towards the longer term trend channel that formed through last year. We might see a retest of the low at £1.09 and if that fails then reversion towards the longer term channel and possible test of support at £1. Chart: https://invst.ly/ua5og
Tigerbythetail - I'd be glad if anybody could show me a THIRD company with such appealing characteristics.
JLP I would say would be up there imo
@velo - yes I am long
Ah ok no worries. The lad was just jesting BTW. I believe.
Not you Stoodio, offmessage.
Mark? Not sure if you’re talking to me or not. I didn’t say it couldn’t happen? I just said it it does I’ll eat my shorts.
Why? Experience. Hunch. Gut. Open to being wrong.
Offmessage : No chance of £1. For what reason?
Buy at :- 86.65p - 04/01/2021
After the pullback :- 122.40p - 12/03/2021 & 114.35p - 25/03/2021
The same £ value of buy each time, I was going to go more on the last purchase but I thought it was going to touch 1.11 for another opportunity (which it did) - but in the end I didn't buy again as SLP now sits at 18% of my PF. Also hold 6.4% of my PF in Tharisa (THS) - So probably overweight in this area in general.
Offmessage - Do you already have a position in SLP, or are you investigating it as a result of noticing this pullback?
Morninng/afternoon Stoodio :)
Yes, Rhodium is a but iffy at the moment. But not speculating on reasons for SLP's pullback. They occur on a regular basis. They just have to be dealt with in a consistent manner.
(I should erase that last line of mine in a post below, that references: Unless there was a world war - and replace that jocularity with something along the lines
Of: Unless one day we all wake up to a company profit warning).
Think that may have been my last ever 'blind' computer limit buy-order yesterday, as it was placed under different circumstances and that trade was far from my preferred strategy-only action which dictates I only buy in a downtrend/pullback AFTER that pullback terminates and recrosses back to the upside - and yes that could easily result in paying higher than I achieved yesterday.
I'm inching ever forward to eliminating personal decision making and ever closer to mechanical strategy decisions, there would still be errors but that entails a disciplined rapid correction and acceptance that we don't have total control of the market, just actions based on probabilities; hence expect errors to occur and then deal with them promptly.
I wasn't going to say :)
i'm joking ofc, I'm not short on this, i'm not completely mad.
Good boi :)
I'll close mine if it does ;-)
Could happen. And I'll eat my shorts if it does.
We could get near to £1 in the next the week or so - a close below £1.16 today could mean a test of the previous low at £1.09 and if that fails then next stop £1.
Luna, you’re a sick f**k like me I see :)
Morning Velo, all very interesting food for thought for sure :)
Let's see what the next couple of weeks brings. Rhodium a little unsure of itself of late, that said, is still astonishingly beuatiful and shall remain so for some time. I keep laughing at my glee back when Rhodium hit $6,000 and how wonderful that was for SLP :)
I love pullbacks and market-panics. I absolutely love them.
This doesn't work for every security though, it needs to have solid management and a balance sheet underlining thier competence. Not many companies have that. SLP does.
Just look at their capex since 2014. You see how well they managed their expenditures and managed the operations into profitability. Annual report by annual report. These guys know what they are doing. It's rather beautiful looking at their journey from loss making startup to profitability. And this was under much less favourable market conditions than today.
So when a stock like this becomes heavily discounted, I am always happy to ask for further helpings. They are going to rebound pretty strong, we just don't know when.
The way it looks, it may not be in the too distant future.
Enjoy the sale.
Oops!
"Long term and all other trendline combinations south of medium.interim trends
= are oak-like solid bullish. This is a buying opportunity."
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Typo! Should have said 'north 'as in:
Long term and all other trendline combinations NORTH of medium. interim trends
= are oak-like solid bullish. This is a buying opportunity.
----------------
(Only Ultra-Short and Short-Term trends are bearish currently.)
Stoodio, I'd like to make something clear (IMO) about my concerns over mean reversion surrounding the 200 day average.
I've done posts in the past highlighting the touchpoints of the SP dropping to break or kiss the 200 day average (it is an uncommon occurance, but at least once a year on this 5/6 year belter of an uptrend)
- ALL were buying opportunities, and all soared straight back up as is the wont of a longer term strong bullish stock.
Should the SP do that this year I would expect a bonfire night rocket-like reaction in the SP being repelled by the 200 - as a scaldsed cat reaction would be too weak a description.
On average, I don't usually know or speculate for the "reason" on such pullbacks (all pullbacks not just major ones)
- I just follow them - just so long as one vital and extremely important fact is nailed, riveted and cemented in place
- and that is - the predominant Long Term Trend for the stock MUST be bullish.
- No if's, no but's, no it's 50/50.
To survive a fullscale assault on a stock's 200 day average after flying so high, the SP must be in a long term bullish trend beforehand - and that is the case here, so every pullback is ALWAYS a buying opportunity, unless there is evidence that countermands the long term bull trend, like a world war or somesuch.
" If it drops again tomorrow it'll really start to go into silly territory. "
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At the moment (intraday) it's situated perfectly in a buying opportunity zone. If the SP does travel further south, you have to allow for an overshoot that ties up with nothing obvious; but if the selling is stronger than anyone realises then sub 100 becomes a concern, after just below mid 90's, there are a myriad of previous highs of old textbook resistances if one casts an eye to left of the price action.
However, that would then concentrate focus on the 200 day trendline currently residing in the 70's.
See how it closes. So far, IMO, it's perfectly placed where it is, to give up the ghost on this pullback.
Good analysis and interesting as ever Velo :)
From my experience SLP often reacts to sentiment even when sentiment doesn't necessarily impact upon their core business operations. And I consider this to be EXACTLY the case right now. Much like the March drop, what we have here is nothing short of a buying opportunity, and a very stark one at that. I'm in so low, with such a large number of shares that it simple wouldn't make sense for me to buy now, but I'm very happy for those that are being gifted this chance :) I feel like a broken record, but I've seen it all before.
Fundamentals are as strong as they have EVER been here, and we are making more MONEY than ever with an extremely viable and stable business model, and IMO stable PGM price environment. For this to retrace to meet the 200 day m/a it would simply imply a ridiculous valuation that I see as unfeasible, not matter the wider economic weather. I see a broad spectrum of market jitters currently, but they're unfounded IMO and based upon fear and frankly, impatience. The selling down by Africa Asia will be absorbed by savvy investors and SLP has always been the long game.
I have the patience of Michaelangelo's David, (albeit I'm far better hung), so I'll happily let SLP continue to do its thing with a wry smile on my face knowing my investment is safe, and indeed my TP is incoming this year :)