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Hi Toptiger!
Ruthenium $380/oz at the moment, according to JMAT ($5 lower than I quoted). Gone are the days when it was $40/oz! Iridium $5,750/oz (same as).
The prices of these two "minor" PGMs has risen strongly over the last few months / weeks. In part due to excitement over the coming "hydrogen economy", I'd guess.
Remember, my revenue figure is a guesstimate based on an estimated prill split. (And maybe up to 20% of that raw revenue needs to be taken off for smelting and purification.)
But, that said, at these prices the "by-products" are going to add a significant amount to what is an already very healthy bottom line.
FWIW, the UG2 reef of the Bushveld, which SLP and Tharisa are both mining / processing is comparatively rich in the "minor" PGMs (rhodium, iridium, and ruthenium). Hence, SLP's and THS's market-leading basket prices. (As far as I can tell, SLP's is the highest of all).
tbtt,
are those fag packet numbers correct, ruthenium seems bit too high
Also to note - I hold SLP and THS and like both but tend to think THS is probably more undervalued at present, but IF that Ir number is accurate it means that SLP out performs THS on % of Rh and Ir in the 6E PGM basket.
Yes, they were literally fag packet calculations based on that document and the 6PGE Oz expected to be produced from the last half year report, the doc is obviously quite old but I think that split should be in the ball park.
Howdy TBTT, hope all is well. Yes I agree, it would be good to get some details from SLP on the ‘by products’ particularly as they are becoming a more relevant part of the basket as prices rise, could be argued that the Au is actually a by product at these prices!
If anybody from Sylvania is reading this (and I know you do pop in from time to time) it would be good to get some official numbers on the so-called by-products in the next quarterly report. At least the 6E prill split would be welcome.
In the old days the extra income from ruthenium and iridium was just an afterthought, a nice little bonus. But the way prices are now, the income from the extra 2Es in the 6E PGM basket is becoming significant. The income from iridium (at today's prices) is not so far off the income from palladium - is that correct?
Great work, though maybe these inferred numbers should be back-tested against stoodio's revenue split (date?) before they're taken for granted.
Hi Barna!
So, at today's prices, we are talking about income from the by-products of...
1. Ruthenium 22,000 oz x $385 = $8,470,000
2. Iridium 5,500 oz x $5,750 = $31,625,000
Total annualised revenue from by-products at today's prices = just over $40m!
I know very little about the ruthenium market, so I can't comment if the current price is sustainable. Iridium - total market size around 400K oz per year, it makes rhodium look common - is booming for good reason. It has a key role in the coming "hydrogen economy". I expect $10K / oz at some point in the next few years.
Interesting document - I make it roughly 5.5% Ir, So a very rough 6E split would be along the lines of Pt 45k oz, Ru 22k oz, Pd 18k oz, Rh 9.5k oz, Ir 5.5k oz - Total 6E production of 100k oz PA
TBTT, the only detailled numbers I was ever able to find for Sylvania are in the below (Table 5.5), but it's from 2015:
https://www.deutsche-rohstoffagentur.de/DERA/DE/Downloads/Investor%27s_Procurement_Guide_II.pdf
Tiger, absolutely and I realised soon after posting you wanted the actual prill. But it's but no means insiginificant anymore, as like you said iridium in particular is trading at $5000 /oz as of this morning.
Funnily enough, the only figures I can recall with respect to the actual prill split was in the live webinar - Jaco mentioned it but I don't recall what it was!
Hi Stoodio!
Thanks for the numbers. But I was really looking for the absolute percentages of ruthenium and iridium in the 6E prill split, not the (old) contributions to revenue.
Ruthenium (14% of THS 6E prill split, for comparison) is now trading at $385/oz - when for years it traded in the $40 to $50 range. Iridium - which is incredibly rare and crucial as a catalyst for hydrogen hydrolysis (i.e. "green" hydrogen production) - has risen from about $1,500 to $5,750 / oz (it's up again this morning). (Ir is 4.3% of the THS 6E prill split, for comparison purposes).
I guess that the SLP 4E basket price must be near its record high, given that rhodium is trading at $25,500/oz today, palladium at $2,400, and platinum at $1,200. And that alone is plenty enough to justify investing here, IMO. But my point is that if you include the "forgotten" by-products ruthenium and iridium, then the outlook here is even better.
Hey all, long time reader first time poster here.
I've been building a position and averaging up on SLP a few times now since early last year and am sitting on a nice 60% overall increase so far. I think there is a way to go on this bull streak considering the product prices and demand and am hugely happy with the management team.
Interested to know if anyone else is also averaging up, and if so any current target buy points you have or techniques for balancing increasing your holdings with protecting gains?
Usually I'm predominantly a value investor/buy and hold kind of guy who is more used to averaging down and waiting, so open to tips as I don't tend to find this kind of stock that I want to top up on more often even as it's going up!
Cheers!
*Revenue split below, apologies, but that's the money :)
Tiger:
1.4% ruthenium
2.4% iridium
So you're right, another $130-$140 to the basket :)
Just to ask, does anybody have a link to the 6E prill split for SLP? (I.e. the prill split that INCLUDES ruthenium and iridium). I'm wondering quite how much money SLP must now be pulling in from iridium. It must be getting on towards their income from palladium. Not bad for an ignored by-product!
(I imagine that SLP's 6E prill split is ballpark comparable to THS's 6E prill split, which contains 4.3% iridium. But a precise number would help!)
Hi Stoodio and CK!
In terms of exposure to the current PGM basket price, Sibanye Stillwater is the best of the majors. Sibanye's purchase a few years ago of palladium miner Stillwater, much criticised at the time, is really paying off for them.
The two companies with the absolute highest PGM basket price (in current market conditions) are SLP and Tharisa (THS). Essentially this is due to the very high rhodium percentage in their prill splits, as they are both processing UG2 ore.
I'm not sure the significance of Nornickel's mine flooding problems has been fully recognised here yet. They are estimating that they will lose production of some 700K PGM ounces this year - mostly palladium, but some rhodium in there as well (Nornickel produce around 13% of the world's annual rhodium supply). It may be worse for them - some Russian commentators are speculating that at least one of the two mines affected may be lost entirely. In these circumstances, it's easy to imagine $20,000/oz rhodium and $3,000/oz palladium for some considerable time.
In other news, note the rocketing price of one of SLP's by products, iridium - now $5,600/oz.
CommandoKai, good on you. Been watching SBSW myself. Regards Rhodium prices, can I just make it abundantly clear, that people, myself included, were licking their lips at the prospect of hitting $7-10,000 p/oz Rh here just a couple of years ago. And here's the thing; I'm still licking my lips at $8,000 p/oz Rhodium prices with respect to SLP.
Now tell me, where we at again? :)
The rhodium price seems to have found support after a fast fall, turned up slightly today according to the Johnson Matthey chart http://www.platinum.matthey.com/prices/price-charts#
Recently everytime it's ended a fall it runs back up again for a decent period as buyers panic to get supplies.
I'm so bullish on Rhodium with it's relative scaricty while at the same time being required by ever growing environmental laws around the world to be forced to be bought by car makers as there is no real full substitute for it.
SLP was already my largest position and I'm not selling any time soon, but to gain even more exposure to the rhodium's perfect storm I've snapped up a big chunk of Sibayne Stillwater (SBSW on the NYSE) as well, as they also do PGM recycling in the US as well as mines in SA, they look cheap as chips too if the average Rhodium price just stays about 10,000 for the year, let alone these levels.
Be aware though that the last day for trading for its dividend is today if anyone was thinking of getting some.
I now have a third of my whole portfolio exposed to PGM prices, while there is a risk Rhodium could come off the boil, I cant see the fundamentals leading to a total collapse in price any time soon, but of course now watch me be proven wrong, still I've put my money where my mouth is.
Nimrod, indeed :) All looking very bullish to me.
Craig, exactly. I agree on the future forward plans, but all in good time buddy, make no mistake about that :) And with respect to the trading patterns and share capital, now you're getting somewhere :) Meant in the most respectful of tones. SLP buying, selling, and broker liquidity of said shares, as I touched on the other day in response to you, is not all as it seems alot of the time. Trust me on this :) Regardless of Africa Asia, these shares have always been relatively tightly held by the other insties an what I would call 'large holding' PI's, of which there are MANY :)
Onwards and upwards :)
Palladium up 9.6% in a week.
Platinum up 4% in a week
https://www.nornickel.com/news-and-media/press-releases-and-news/the-norilsk-division-adopts-plan-to-resume-operations-at-oktiabrsky-and-taymir-mines-and-norilsk-concentrator/
Tharisa jumped 8% today
Just did a quick count and more that 10% of the companies currently issued share capital has been traded in the 118 to 130 SP range, pretty strong support here.
Just maybe need some news from the company on how they are going to expand and extend operations.