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I did get my £1.25 close on Thursday :) I knew something was up with that apparent closing price!
Velo. Haha. That's hilarious re the subscription.
FYI, I fully understood the context of your 'averagey' gains with respect to the over performance of other months. Such interesting analysis as ever, always good to hear.
Your take on Monday is interesting too. I think it might get interesting next week :)
Concludes . . .
. . . With SLP showing so many 100% positives - for curiosity started Googling specialist sites last summer, in seasonality forecasting data and was surprised to find quite a thriving underground community of them, one of them let slip of the hedge funds, and institutions et al that subscribe to their services (they were big on indices, as it was indices that were my particular interest when I Googled last year).
I was starting to fall for the soft sell on the home pages as each boasted of their documented success for their clients, so seductively I was induced to take a peek at their subscription page (US sites) and what I saw made me click out and never visit again as they wanted triple digits £££'s subscription rates - PER MONTH! They can feck orff :) :)
" . . . and those 'averagey' gains you talk of in the flat months to come . . . "
-----------
Morning Stoodio,
Feel I should expand a little on methodology. I describe them as averagey because the computer is 100% "certain" that Jan/Feb & July/Aug will be the best performing months of the year.
Ego: therefore all other months must be averagey.
I may have given the impression that means "flat".
However, the computer is actually saying the months of between March and June are of insufficient reliability to be taken as valid and so are displaying low percentages of reliability. (And for the most; single digit % gains).
So they could be flat, could be not half bad, or one or two might end up within spitting distance of the best performing months - because the computer has no confidence in the reliability outcome for those months. If it said 100% confidence of a single digit performance then that would be wholly different matter.
So the computer is not at all confident anyone can draw a safe conclusion. When I posted that of the spring/early summer season, March is likely to flat, that's the % gain the computers are showing but it has no strong faith in its own conclusions.
It's actually forecasting a gain of 0.8% gain for March but is shrugging its shoulders splaying upturned palms sideways, saying 50/50 chance of that occurring by displaying only 50% confidence.
50% chance of accuracy is an inadequate percentage to even think of posting under 1% gain for March - could be anything, so will be glancing at immediate indicators and ultra short term trends for March; if I even bother as long term trends say all is v strongly bullish.
However, I'm personally holding the view of a close on Monday of between 122 and 117 with a tilt towards the lower end of that range rather than the higher end. My confidence of that occurring? . . . hmmm well-less than 50% :)
So see what comes out in the wash :)
Incidentally, I only ever look occasionally at historic seasonality data whenever I'm interested in taking a position in a stock and I muse to myself: I wonder if it has a low spot in the year and if it's nearby as that might be a good month buy. To see 100% confidence ratings is not rare but it is uncommon, and SLP has 5 months of them for this year, now that's outstanding!
- Five!
Jan/Feb,
July/Aug
and new entrant for 2021 - November!
(With a 100% probability forecast of 9.6% gain in Nov).
(It's showing Aug as the likely recipient to receive the Month of the year award at a whopping 23% gain!
With SLP showing so many 100% positives - for curiosity started Googling specialist sites last summer, in seasonality forecasting data and was surprised to find quite a thriving underground community of them, one of them let slip of the hedge funds, and institutions et al that subscribe to their services (they were big on indices, as it was indices that were my particular interest when I Googled last year).
Continues .... > >
The bizarre thing with the Mello bash was that Bruce didn't even mention Rhodium or Iridium, it was all about Platinum and having lower costs than the larger producers. Bruce was once again the weakest link on the panel imo. It was actually Jack who introduced Rhodium into the debate. Where you detail he speaks of all being aware of SLP I think he would mean all stokopedia subscribers and he is probably right as he and stockopedia have brought it to their attention. I'm sure the majority of Advfn and LSE users won't be aware of the metrics available here at the more than reasonable price
Velo, I'm well aware your postings from January were on the money too - so congrats also buddy :) For me? Sitting very happy like you. Never been more confident in my holding, and those 'averagey' gains you talk of in the flat months to come will be taking us to upwards of £1.40 if my due diligence rings true :)
The only problem with the above of course, is for the umpteenth time I'm going to have to get back to the chalk board to revise my TP as this was sitting just a smidgen below it. I haven't revised it in a while tbh, so have some homework to do :)
Apologies.
With "their performance is measured" I meant the pundits, not the company. To be clear.
Don't get spooked out of a good position. As more people want in, it is in their interest to do this as low as possible (as is mine).
mra1984
"(1) These twits from conker's corner - they keep tweeting out this rubbish without even fact checking, listening to there podcast where they think SLP is risky just because the share price has gone up a lot and then start talking about platinum a lot...ok weird, no knowledge or mention of Rh and Rh market deficit"
---
In principle, this is correct. As the price increases, especially like in this case, so does downside risk.
But that is not telling the whole story. Looks at the quality and value ratios and it's extraordinary. And now momentum comes into play as well? The valuation is ridiculously low. To keep it simple, the sector average is PE 15. Never mind any other objective measurement.
Their performance is not measured in the value of wealth they contribute to their readers, but as to how many people continue reading their musings. Not quite the same. And yes, there is a bit of a contrarian play with SLP, but that's exactly where the fun begins ;)
Happy holding.
So someone rains on the parade. And?
Seriously, so what? If that manages to convince people to part with their share in a fantastic business, then the opportunity we should welcome is to say thank you and purchase what they are so willing to part with.
People buy and sell for all sorts of reasons. I was never too bothered finding out why. But when the sell sentiment overweighs and they part with one of the best propositions I know, then the only thing I regret is that I never know who these anonymous entities are so I can express my gratitude.
So, everyone. please do sell your stakes in this company. You will have a grateful buyer waiting for your unwanted shares.
Yes, mra1984 - I've been reading similar too.
I call it the unused to success syndrome.
Something not exclusive to others but ourselves too. Take myself for example.
I made a complete and utter mess of topping-up last summer/autumn and achieved NIL top-up's from September up to currently. So maybe after my posts below, March might be the perfect month for me to place smaller top-up's to try and break the duck as placing too high a top-up can induce such anxiety?
My inability to achieve top-up's and those reports by the writers you highlight is the same disease I reckon. Too much prior failure induces recency bias so leaves us unprepared for when success and opportunity comes knocking.
If they have influence as you claim, then like another poster further below - then bring it on :) I need those top-up's before the SP travels any higher.
Supplement for the spring/summer:
March to June is showing as low confidence in accuracy varying from 50% confidence to 75% confidence. (Jan/Feb & July/Aug were all 100% confidence in target acquired) and are also currently showing 100% confidence for this summer's July & Aug.
(Could tell you what they chattering about for the big gains in July/Aug but don't want to embarrass them as they cheat right up to the last minute AND during the month in question. They just never stop.
Also from time to time, they do the computer equivalent of saying:
We can't get it up tonight, sorry - and so are showing 0% confidence for June, so will have to look into that, and what's upsetting them for June this year.
So March is showing as quite a flat month with the following months up to June with reasonable small gains (you can only have best performing months of the year if by definition, the others are 'ordinary/pedestrian/averagey') but as low as their confidence is, they still show gains for each month; just not enough to knock your socks off that's all.
June I'm labelling as the Joker in the pack - as it could literally be anything - according to the computer, who are refusing to be drawn on the matter.
Cue droll voice: The computer says no.
there is some annoying people out there starting to put a downer on SLP which is frustrating as if we are going into a 3year min period of insanely strong Rh prices then SLP should be beasting it!!
(1) These twits from conker's corner - they keep tweeting out this rubbish without even fact checking, listening to there podcast where they think SLP is risky just because the share price has gone up a lot and then start talking about platinum a lot...ok weird, no knowledge or mention of Rh and Rh market deficit
(2) Jack Brumby from Stockopedia keeps spouting on how everyone knows about SLP so it must be no good because everyone is in it apparently, what?!
(3) Steven English - guy from Stellar Asset Management who knows diddly f all about mining saying costs will go up on mello when SLP themselves have them going down on a two year outlook
I'm sure SLP will be fine but it's annoying as these twerps as massively influential and spouting this stuff all online, particular the conkers corners guys are the worst. They go on and on about share ramping if the share isn't theirs but then shares they own like Duke say, they tweet all day about but that is ok but that hasn't risen a lot yet. Like they are not successful investors it seems at all... they both totally ignore momentum and market dynamics.
Just tidying up to close the chapter on historic seasonal averages in SLP which as a holder have been most pleasing, to say the least.
I held back in posts from before Jan 2021 of stating a definitive expectation for the high returns periods of Jan& Feb to give the algo's time to calculate from the very latest starting point, but on Jan 1st (market still closed) I posted somewhat generically the following:
-----------------------
" Jan/Feb '21 historically over the last 5 years (the annual second best performing period) is showing a couple of single % points just short of a 30% increase across the 2 months alone.
(Nearly 12% for Jan) suggesting Jan closes in the v high 90's
- with Feb showing a near 15% increase confirming the SP at long last being seen in triple figures ".
-----------------------
JAN:
On the first trading day of 2021 (Jan 4th) the SP closed on 89p so I used that. And never felt the need to adjust the high 90's suggestion in probabilities by the pre-Jan 4th historic data.
January closed on 102p - so an actual gain of 14.6% gain for January, so halfway there for the 2 month cumulative forecast as shown by the historic data. So far so good. On to February -
FEB:
On the first trading day of February (2nd of Feb) the SP closed on 107p and went on to close the month on Friday at 120.50p a gain of 12.6%
So a cumulative gain across the 2 months of 27.2% (or statistically speaking a true 35.4% gain from start to finish) but I'm not doing it like that. I'm tracking the historical seasonal data that is done "month by month" same as the computers
- so I'm presenting 27% gain as the two individual months.
Now refer to the Jan 1st post whereby the same method threw up circa 30%. Clearly that gain sits between the two, but don't care; I'm well happy with the final result - from a 30% gain suggestion at the outset to an actual 27% gain in separate months.
-
However, what did the algo's end the period saying as likely? They don't know all trading for Feb has ceased so are still fighting it out
(Well they're right cheats, they adjust every single day right up to the last day. In human terms we call that cheating :) :) :)
Anyway by Friday's close the algo's were expecting 16.3% gain for January and 19.4% for February. Their final answer. (Or is that their forecast for 2022?)
So by the very last day actual reality shafted the computer technology in February did it not? And also a little for January too :) What you were expecting perfection? LOL! :) :)
A similar thing happened in July/August when actual reality beat the computer forecasts by a massive margin. Which was damn good to start with anyway, but reality was even better.
Any way, well done to the computer technology and well done to Stoodio - for keeping up the side for the humans! As a 120/125 close to February Is pretty much in the same box IMO. All-in-all ? Well pleased, as in - Kerching! £££ LOL!
Well would you believe! Not too shabby all the same :)
Stoodio
I have 120.5.-. Regardless, it was a rather good call and legitimately in range since it even topped that intraday.
How accurate are your bets?
Best (and enjoy the glory)
Since start of the year the SLP 4E basket price is up about 37% - highest it has ever been.
Basket value breakdown now approx 1/1.3/4.8 for Pd/Pt/Rh
Amazingly the Rh bid price is up significantly again today.
London stock exchange has the closing price at £1.2456. Anyone got an alternative close price?
If it is the above, then I’m sorry for misleading everyone and being a half penny out ;)
Whatever the 'conflicting views', taking a look at the fundamentals one sees exemplary ratios and returns. 30%+ ROE, negative debt, huge cashflows, a ridiculously low P/E and a PEG of 0.065 TTM and 0.2 forward. If this doesn't scream value, what then please does?
In the bigger picture there is a strong demand for Rhodium going forward for the next few years, Platinum demand is expected to grow due to the rollout of hydrogen cells (amongst others). Let's not forget about Palladium which is frequently used in organic chemistry due to high functional group tolerance.
And someone is covering their backs? Seriously?
Right now the case is so strong that I am treating SLP like a high interest savings account. Looking forward to the dips. Thank you Mr Market, I sincerely hope you panic more often.
They mentioned special divident last year as a one off and that's the one. Going forward there is currently no promise of another special divident (which doesn't mean there won't be one).
Check out the Cobalt graph... ?? $52K/tonne
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/commodities/video/conditions-may-be-ripe-for-a-precious-metals-super-cycle-commodity-strategist~2148255
More comments re cyclical overshoot in commodity prices. It sounds like the analysts are trying to cover their arses by holding divergent views at the same time.
http://www.platinum.matthey.com/services/market-research/pgm-market-report#
old news but should help the share price
https://leaderpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/russias-nornickel-partially-suspends-operations-at-two-mines-due-to-water-inflow
In regards to windfall profits special dividend is this quarterly or once a year?