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This is one of the shares whose valuation I had to artificially throttle because I could not believe the results.
In those cases, I am using a growth rate equal to the growth of inflation over the last 30 years, which is 2.9%
Needless to say that the resulting figure still comes out way higher than what it currently is.
In case you are interested, using the TTM Eps of 23.10, a growth rate of a meager 2.9% and a 20Yr Bond rate of 4.60%, the resulting fair value is at 218.75 and a buy with a 50% Margin of Saftey at 109.37.
But that's just to ensure capital is safeguarded from inflation.
But what to estimate as growth value. If I use a CAGR of 98% over the last 5-6 years, it will be insanely high, and not sustainable. Let's use the CAGR in ROE of 12.7%, this gives a fair value of 435.28 with a buy under 217.64% using Graham and Dodd's litmus test (sufficient for my purposes).
Please do sell your positions in SLP since I have no clue what I am talking about! You will find a grateful buyer in me :P
N
She just keeps on giving. The funny thing is, we are still far from being fair value :)
Balls in hand as we speak Velo :)
Mind you since late last summer, new ATH's have been created every single month onwards. Watch you don't get scalded when you're pressing keys on your keyboard when on the SLP page, because this stock is H-h-h-h -O-T!
. . . New all time (intraday) high achieved this morning
- as previous ATH was 127 (last month).
Hargreaves Lansdown no probs.
But this share I will not be trading I will be holding.
ATB
And of course the ubiquitous IG.
But if you're at the stage of struggling to find a broker that offers SLP then IG is far too dangerous to consider because of the "attractions" they offer just a click away.
Yes HL,
AJ Bell
and cheapo fees platform, iWeb
all offer SLP no problemo.
JohnnyGee
You could try iWeb (Lloyd's), for an execution only service.
You can tell em' I said it :)
JonnyGee - SLP is AIM listed. You won't really be finding the stock available on the likes of Saxo, Charles Schwab, eToro, IBKR etc. You'll need to look at larger platforms operating within the UK that offer it.
Morning Velo, much obliged squire and how’s about that then!
Would you believe me if I told you it had crossed my mind to ask you to remove the somewhat erroneous / rogue year that was 2020 from your ‘Weird Science’ (meant in the most brilliant of ways :) ) computations?
Regardless, I’m with you as I had already removed it from my own top of head thoughts, feelings and calculations very early on in March / April last year.
Last year was utterly rogue. The dip to the 30s was erratic, misleading and manipulated (as well as horrible to watch), forced upon us as it were and in no way reflects the reality here :) Where we are now only serves to make me thankful for the balls of steel and confidence I was blessed with when it comes to SLP :)
Quick question to you guys - have been following SLP for a few weeks now and decided to buy some stock, but discovered I couldnt find any on the Saxo trading platform I use. Where do you guys trade it?
Thankyou Velo.
Interesting that the on-line article from 24th February only made it into Friday's (5th March) version of the magazine. Expect a further tick-up tomorrow IMO.
GLA
Would like to rescind my former outlook for March (based on historic-data seasonality price action alone, and nothing else) and now disown the computer's low confidence, poor and indifferent forecast for March.
As of this morning I'm of the opinion March is more likely to develop to Stoodio's posts of anticipated satisfaction, rather than the indifferent performing month, prior posts of mine had indicated.
I think the algo's have been unduly influenced by the performance of last year's (2020) month of March!
(As rather, it should be seen like all market crashes as what is essentially, a reset point rather than a guide point).
So dug into the data this Sunday morning and took out March of 2020 from the data and what a difference to the results.
Did the same by taking out the whole of 2020 for balance and added an earlier year just outside the data point, and much the same result held.
So, far from March performance being indifferent, it now shows that without the March 2020 data, to expect a not-unreasonable gain for March (but not in the territory of the big hitters of the Jan/Feb & July/Aug months).
So not expecting a poor performing March, but a month of things ticking along nicely. Which can't be said for June.
Coming off the fence for June which is too much for the algo's who refuse to show any confidence whatsoever. I am now adamant that June will more likely than not, no longer be the joker in the pack, but the worst performing month this year. A stinker month!
But whatever, being fully invested by the commencement of July is a must. Odds are too great for anything other than a stellar performance in July and August.
Summary:
March to May fit within the 'normal' positive performance parameters (outside of the big hitting winning months)
- with June holding the wooden spoon as likely to be the stinker month of the year, with that month going on to close lower, than it opens.
March good :) - - June bad :(
ST makes STRONG buy recommendation with compelling case on PE ratio and cash projections. A no brainer for people with brains?
DYOR and GLALTH
Who knows! When Buffett acknowledges he overpaid for a 2016 acquisition and is forced to write down $11B it says what we all know. This week (and last) there is the fear of rising interest rates making bonds less attractive. When bond-holders sell off, the price drops. When the price drops, the yield rises. This makes the risk-free rate rise as well. If the risk-free rate rises, the equity risk premium must also rise. That in turn forces the discount rates to be adjusted upwards. And that makes net present values of tech stocks in particular lower driving the share price down as people move away from anticipated future earnings potential to something more tangible and concrete. And that is where SLP comes in. With their fundamentals so strong (albeit lack of purchasing power admittedly), I see that the bond vigilantes only benefitting us. As to what the Pt or Rh price will do in 6 months time - God knows and he isn`t telling anybody soon :)
On SLP itself - lots of people on here know this stock (and industry) inside out and sure they will contribute much more than I can.
S
Sounds perfectly reasonable to me. Thanks.
"shorts"... I'm definitely not short here :)
Mark, while the "expert" reference I'm certain isn't aimed at me, I can tell you I'd be happy to eat my short if SLP is not north of £1.50 by June :)
Where do the expert posters on this site see SLP 6 mths from now and where do they think the Rhodium price is headed going forward? 30k next week? 40k next month?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/fmMpvklB/
and there it is
Chart is looking very bullish...nice bull flag on 4-hour chart
:)