Member Info for JonnyGee

Yes - @Bogyo did a very good analysis below - 17:19 yesterday

@17:53 I rather suspect none of us "need" to read any of his comments elsewhere, lol. Its pretty clear from the stream of unconsciousness below that we all have better things to do with our time...

@12:56. They are currently conserving cash, which makes sense and should not be paying the vendor amounts until they have the necessary liquidity from securing a partner as they need to keep the show going until that point is (hopefully ) reached towards the end of 26. The vendors are presumably seeking to apply pressure for a payment, but CTL is in no position to stump up the $2.25mio currently due so we are where we are. The criminal charge in addition to the contractual civil law charge is a slight curve ball and makes me think they may be seeking to invalidate CTL's contractual buy back provisions, but thats pure speculation in the absence of more detailed information

@18:05 Any basis/ source of information for that understanding? Would be really helpful to know if that is the case.

@7:38 Not just that (ASX credibility/knowledge) but also means they have an in house finance expert on the board which will be extremely useful during all the financing and partnership negotiations this year in parallel to any ASX activity

The gross in ground value benchmarks being bandied around are frankly pretty theoretical, especially given the level of inferred resources CTL has, which is pretty low grade as far as bankable resources goes and gets you nowhere near actual reserves. Yesterdays call was quite useful for referring to a couple of benchmark traded comparables on the ASX (Galan and Lake Resources). If you look at those, Lake is about 1 year ahead of CTL (EIS this year) whereas Galan is ~3 years ahead, and going into actual production this year. Lake has pretty large resources with 11.1MT total of which 8.2Mt (74%) are Measured + Indicated, Galan is more comparable size wise with 1.79mT of which 1.51mt (84%) are M+I. CTL on the other hand has 2.81mT (including Andino) of which 1.28 (45%) are M+I. There are different approaches to looking at inferred resource (some of which totally exclude them, which is a bit extreme), but if we discount them by , say ,50%, we end up with Galan currently trading at £154/t of adjusted resource , Lake at £8 per tonne, and CTL at £13, i.e. not the cheapest. Interestingly, Galan's price has risen 3.5x in the last 9 months as it has approached construction completion , also helped by an M&A offer from a Chinese company which it rejected. If you go back to its pre ramp trading of around AUD 0.11 per share, that was equivalent to £44 per adjusted ton, or 3.4x CTL's current metric. That being said, they already had the DFS and strategic partner and funding at that point , which is more of a 2027 thing for CTL. Also, as referred to elsewhere on the board, we are all flying blind without the PFS info, without which we have zero idea of the potential cost structure and NPV, something which will have a significant impact on investor understanding and SP rating. We now have the CEOL (almost) in the bag, but the PFS will determine the overall economics picture.

@7.23- generally agree with your sentiment, though think it would be daft to sell any down before the PFS is issued and the final Comptroller review is completed and approved, as those are pretty short term additional support milestones, which I feel would remove any lingering doubts. The next big trigger will be the partnership/financing agreement, though thats a bit of two way bet depending on the terms that ends up with, so taking a bit off the table before that gets crystallised may be no bad thing (though, to be clear, it also has the potential for another very significant SP upswing as well)

@7:48 Thanks for that. That was exactly the timeline I was trying to recall - I had end of Feb in my memory, but this is more accurate and I wont expect anything until then, government departments being government departments.

Interesting. Unfortunately there is no direct source attribution for this so dont know how seriously to take it but assume this is what probably gave the SP some support today.

With all due respect, thinking the daily MA has any relevance on a binary event driven stock, where the binary outcome (CEOL approval) is existential for the company, is for the birds. It can have relevance elsewhere, but on something as speculative as this so I would urge anyone looking at this to check their fundamentals on this as it really is a judgement call on the CEOL (and quite a few subsequent milestones, but the CEOL is the most existential)

@7.12. I wouldnt hold your breath for 100p. Thats a 13% PBT decline YoY with knock-on effects on forward forecasts, so we're unlikely to see them recover their FY25 eps until FY 28 from what the revised forecasts and my own calculations are saying. If you assume their reversion trading multiple of ~7x that's a mid to high 80's SP. That's still a ~25% potential upside from where we are currently but the markets going to take a while and want to see better numbers come in before significantly rerating IMO.

Yes - I just saw that. Smart move for them to be honest, especially as I recall much of their remaining portfolio is struggling. Partially may explain the current price as thats a chunk of shares.

The key in that regard is for them to have access to the funds to actually pay the amounts due. I recall them stating that they can buy the shares back even if they are taken in lieu, though frustratingly we have no idea under what terms and if that will cost them significantly more (if I had been the seller, I would certainly have made that an expensive right) If the CEOL gets approved and they have a partner lined up, then maybe thats the plan, though could potentially cause significant dilution. Unfortunately we just dont know - just another factor holding back the SP. As has been said by others on this board, there are a lot of moving parts to fall into place on this, so I expect any SP upward movement to be a marathon, not a sprint, and highly correlated to each milestone achieved.

Yes, in theory, though there is no requirement to exercise them if the SP hits the strike price so Id be surprised if anyone exercises for the foreseeable and doesnt just sit along for a free upside. There's still way too much risk in this to be lobbing in money you dont need to.

Its interesting dynamics right now - yesterday it bounced into a sell order at 9p which now seems to have reached 10p today. I suspect there are some players who bought in around 6p and are now realising some pretty attractive 50-60% gains in a very short period which is nice work if you can get it. Obviously, until the CEOL is actually confirmed this is still highly speculative and we've been here before so I dont blame some folks for locking in some upside now (assuming they bought cheap enough - Im now just back in the money myself and will hold , but know there are a lot of folk out there who got in at much higher prices and for whom this must be painful)

I think thats right and a good summary. This stock isnt going to move on financial results, but on milestones and given the historic flow of disappointments and negative surprises, its going to take a lot of positive, executed achievements (the ones you lay out) to rerate fully (and God knows where the price ends up even at the end of that journey).

The $9.5mio liability (of which $3.75mio is now in arrears) is larger than their market cap and so not a tiny admin issue. That being said, worst case is it converts to 49% of the subsidiary holding the 23 option concessions, but their is no information available on the portion of overall Laguna Verde economics attributable to this subsidiary/ concessions. There is also no comment on the terms of buying these shares back which I find rather poor.

Reasonable and useful summary, thanks. That being said, this is the "no curveball" view of proceedings, which is sadly something CTL has not managed to achieve to date. My sense is that Ignacio is a good addition to the team who appears to have the experience to work around the vagaries of a Chilean resource process, but at the end of the day it still has emerging market risk written all over it. If they do somehow get to the CEOL etc, then Id agree there could be a very significant upside, but still have to classify this one as highly speculative.

Yes, I know there was a huge amount of work done on Montanara (Ive lived through that trainwreck together with the rest of you guys) , but Im rather taken aback with the latest Montanara news - none of which has come from JSE which I find rather odd/ unexpected.

That's a a shockingly low premium - 16%, and the Board actually recommends it?? Company has to be seriously going down the toilet for that to happen - its also not a very encouraging buy signal for any competing players so wouldnt hold my breath for that. I suspect a very large part of the shareholder bases are well under water at these levels, so am also sceptical they will achieve the necessary 75% vote to approve the deal, so may indeed be better to get out now before it falls apart.