Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
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Opened at not much above USD31. Now 36.50.
Equities in a panic too.
Steel required by all oil investors...not least, me.
I don’t know why it was thought prudent by Savannah to say anything at all about a loan that is no longer material to the company.
Friday’s late news about the Riverfort Global and Yorkville loan facility is bizarre, because I believed it had been repaid. The loan had an initial maturity date of 17th January and Riverfort and Yorkville chose not to convert the loan into shares on that date, thereby requiring the maturity date to be extended.
I can’t ignore the fact that from looking at the share trades on 16th January, the day prior to the maturity date, I came to the conclusion that half of the loan had been converted using the VWAP formula. Thus it appeared to me that either Riverfort Global or Yorkville had converted their half of the loan into shares. As any shares issued as a result of a half or full loan conversion must be informed to the market, it appears I was wrong.
It has transpired that the outstanding loan was not converted by Riverfort and Yorkville on 17th, and that the maturity date was extended, but the terms for an extension were never given in news to the market. Did Riverfort and Yorkville lose their one opportunity to convert into Savannah shares?
Last Friday’s news states the loan maturity date has been extended again, this time by three months from 6th March to 6th June. Now nothing about this episode is material any longer to Savannah so I suppose no-one will get to know what has happened or what the terms are of an extension.
Let’s get something straight. SAVP cannot hold back any material news because it suits them or they want to wait for people to sell or any other daft reason. It’s the rules! It’s the nomads job to make sure of this!
Right number, wrong currency! Thanks for correction.
It gives a rough indication of our EV and the drop in SP.
£500m drop to £400m EV - 20%
Lloyds/RBS have lost similar amounts in percentage terms, relating to market cap reduction.
BB
In the Nigeria CPR issued in December, I believe the debt was $409 million. $40 million had previously been paid off during 2019.
SQ320
I hope that is the case. The news flow after the sell down is complete should then return us to 20p+. The financial update for H1/20 will allow the SP to be valued properly after seeing the profit and loss statements and the paying down of the debt. With a mcap of £100m and debt of £400m (is this right?) we are valued around £500m EV. Although the SP has lost 50% in 6 weeks, it has removed on £100m from the EV (17% drop in EV). If the debt is reducing the SP can increase to maintain the EV as shown in the financials, due end of Sept 20. FY19 results due in May 20 may show some income and debt payments which will add some positive sentiment.
Hopefully much more good news will be received before Sept 20.
BB
In the last month, 40m shares have been traded. Which means 20m buys and 20m sells. There are about 1 billion shares in issue. Bear in mind that some of the buys/sells could have been the same people trading the same shares!
I'd put down the SP fall to the fact that the relatively small number of buyers are not interested in buying unless they get a good price and whoever is selling is willing to take whatever they are offered.
And overall I'd be surprised if this has been IIs selling out.
Could there be a Debt and Equity finacing package in the pipeline.
This would explain the rapid drop in share price. As the II's being offered the option to partake, sell down their holding to buy back in cheaper in the placing. This could be at a shareprice of 90% of the VWA over the previous 5 trading days.
If the II's are not happy, pressure could be put on the company to allow them to recover some of their losses or reduce their averages. Once done news can flow and SP can return to normal. With new projections for the Shares in Issue.
Debt would be reduced and hopefully free cash flow will pay the remaining debt down and allow for some exploration.
If not and equity raise, what is wrong here?
PI's are the last to know, it seem a great buying opportunity right now as it was at sub 20p.
Hopefully all will become clear soon!
BB
our posts over lapped Zengas..
I certainly am worn down already by this s/p decline.
The race is long if you want t to be though. So here's hoping for the future here.
And keep up your good posting please.
NicetoMichu
Appreciate the comments. I think everyones a bit wore down with the persistent fall in share price and of course your comments are always welcomed by me.
Well the RNS now confirms no shares were issued and the $5m loan still open to 6th June where they say it is now non material to them .
I understood that the Nigerian free cash flow would be affected by around 5% based on the Nigeria small oil element with gas immune and escalating in price.
AK has met the Akwa Ibom state govenor seeking new fields, signed a a new power station customer and the investment in Nigeria was heavily promoted at the Nigerian-Uk investment body in late January. I would presume with the world bank onboard and the extensive gas/electricity push the company would get full government support to get any issues resolved for fear it would derail further investment for government projects at a time when it's needed most.
So provided there are no payment issues the company should be bringing in that free cash flow as it's 4 months now since the 7E deal closure so if anything there's been time to build some cash flow and get any outstanding issues sorted out.
Not concerned about the current oil price as imo it would be no more than just a medium term outlook if anyone is interested in coming in re Niger. I still beleive that rather being a major producer they would seek to prove up and eventually sell the barrels in the ground.
Seperately 5th March 2020 - "The revenue collected by power distribution companies in the counrty hit a new record high of N473bn in 2019. The number of registered end-users in the Nigerian electricity supply industry keeps increasing, currently at a rate of about 75,000 new customers per month (10 per cent in 2019, resulting in more than 9.5 million customers in total).”
http://www.thetidenewsonline.com/2020/03/05/power-distributors-revenue-collection-rises-to-n473bn/
In 2015, North American shale oil (also referred to as “tight” oil), had an average breakeven price of $68 per barrel. Today, the average breakeven price for the same oil is estimated to be $46 per barrel.14 May 2019
Some of shale production in USA has breakeven at $27 but some as high as $85.
Got to affect new drilling at these prices but it will take time to feed through to the market.
Buy when the infection rate starts to fall in the USA - not even got going upwards yet - looking to buy back in in May probably.
OPEC + talks collapsing this afternoon without any agreement is a real shock to me and very bad news for PoO I feel. (In a few weeks time the old agreement will expire and in the absence of a new agreement between now and then all can pump as they see fit from 1st April )
All O&G stocks could be heavily and indiscriminately tarred with the same brush off the back of this.
I feel I need to revise my previous thinking now.
As of the 20th Feb 20.
BB
Agree with the posts actually both for and against. I only disagree with analyst targets as being anything of value at all. I mean they are even pumping EZJ. You couldn’t make it up. Still 10.2p to buy here, I’m waiting for lower to average down. Worse thing here is good news and sp pops like 30% which is around 13p. That’s my worry so it needs to be very very good news.
Bought back my blue chips today, bar banks, expecting a big injection of QE soon so insurers many down now over 25% should get a lift. Had a good run so far buying on down day’s selling on up days. Today’s a down day, not much more scientific than that and if I’m wrong side I have bought the likes of GSK which should do well assuming they can maintain drug ingredient pipelines. Apart from Savp and matd I’ve made more in a falling market than a rising one but it’s flipping hard work. GLA.
Trek
Added more today. Lots of automatic trades. Sure sector sentiment is terrible. However fcf will be predicted to same has market cap. Bargain
Oil down 6%.
Manipulation of SAVP
BB
expect the board are holding an emergency COBRA meeting to discuss how big their bonuses should be
The Yanks are thankfully generally slow to sell down their markets - shares are far more engrained in their culture than uk for eg I think.. many manage their pensions themselves to some degree from a long time back and they're have a go heroes/ risk takers by nature.. etc - and I'm hoping that even if this Corona Virus causes more panic/economic decline from here - and it may well do - the Dow still for eg won't go under 20k and that would give me hope in a convoluted way that SAVP won't tank hugely further from 10p .. so I'd just about still stick with my recently offered 7.5p as worst case scenario here in my mind - perrhaps round that down to 7p as for whole number shout - and i'd placing my remaining additional bets here on that basis. Towards balance i'd offer my best case scenario in coming few months for SAVP stays at 20p.. eg a properly good RNS in some shape or form in next few months could do wonders.. and the corona virus may not play out as badly as some think it might.. ( ps towards balance, the government should have outlined a best case scenario along side worst case recently imho)
Very very reluctantly liquidated all my holdings now, inc SAVP as I think on balance too high a risk of macro events getting far worse and I want to be in cash to invest in good companies well run and led by people I can trust. ......i should have listen3d to my "inner ear" - She Who Must Be Obeyed - a lot earlier and got out of this several months ago. Warnings:
Cash - no-one at SAVP will answer my questions about current cash position and whether we have been paid by Nigerian Govt. Why was it needed to take the recent ( piddly amount?) loan and why weren't we told if it had been repaid out of cash or shares? Treat shareholders with contempt yet again.
Readmission Document -where is it?
Dividends promised as a result of 7E deal - where are they?
Comms by CEO - garbage. Absolute garbage. His "conference call" over a weak telephone line from Nigeria during his coffee break - result noone could properly understand a word. He failed to answer ONE question put to him in advance by shareholders. Using Malcy ( paid BS ramper) and Vox to pump your hype and ask no awkward questions.
CFO - second rate, second choice in-house finance manager because no one outside would take it?
CEO consistently late and has missed EVERY single meaningful target.
Yes, the 7E deal was complicated and yes, the presidential election delayed the signature...but, those were all predictable and no surprise, and yet CEO caught by surprise?
Maybe the assets are good, but like AAOG, SOU, SDX, GKP, XEL......if you have an over-paid, arrogant, bull shot merchant in charge with a weak BOD to reign him in, you mostly get fooked as a private shareholder.
Having said all that, I'm conscious I am suffering from confirmation bias as an ex- private investor, and perhaps there will be a RNS this afternoon putting all these worries to rest and I have baled out too early. But at least I have the cash to invest in a CEO and management team I can believe in. GLA.
So did I. God knows where this is going to end up but as others have written, why aren't the company doing anything to prop up the sp, unless they consider it to be futile in the current climate.
longy1, problem is, I told myself that at 20p, 15p, 12p etc! ;)
I know us long term holders have been pummeled but anyone buying in now are getting an absolute bargain. Fingers crossed some buyers turn up soon!
I'd guess that panic selling here today is indeed corona virus macro fear related.
i'm seeing 9.25p to sell as i type.. very sad indeed .. and I guess this fall can easily continue from here..but hopefully not
Good afternoon
Coronavirus is having a massive effect on the market. Have you seen the price of Oil these days. It's tanking daily added to BoD radio silence. Not been in SAVP for a long time but is there debt that needs paying off soon. Anything highly geared will be in trouble over the next few months big time. Not sure if that's the case here at all. Can anyone highlight briefly what the debt situation is please (how much and terms of repayment etc)
Regards to all
Something definitely not right here, this isn't just 'virus' related