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Value means little at the moment, but buying at 34.45p gives a discount of 15% on today's NAV. Premium long gone, cash I guess is king for investors. Who knows, but buying so far below recent equity issued at 55p gives some reassurance.
Bought some more at the close - 37.1p - sp fallen a third in less than two weeks since those 3 big new issues at average 55p....sentiment is shattered and with sp now at discount instead of premium to NAV, buying here seems a decent level. small number of transactions can move this down rapidly - but reverse is true too. If this is forerunner of wider markets, gonna be a blood bath if retail is holding on margin.
V crude assessment on long term impact of WT until 2025 sunset clause kicks in: we lose max 7.5 % of our profit generation capacity over this period, so I think a deduction of £70 M on market cap is more realistic or 25p a share not 46p. But that's BEFORE taking into account of investment in Egg and tax offset of 90% which I reckon in reality will net the real cash loss from WT of more like 10 - 15p at most. Given market cap been hammered down from £4.00 in short term, today's market reaction is in my view wholly overdone. I am buying and happy with yield of almost 3.5% .
Imho oversold and gt opportunity to build a stake at a sensible low risk price. I think sp hit by 4 times whammy:
c6 p dilution from 38p new shares issued,
Pi's selling their 38p shares
Market is "off" generally
plus new uranium ETF about to launch which offers alternative and likely to narrow the premium GCL has been trading at.
Having said that I reckon fair value currently at least 50 -55 p plus so I've been topping up this morning.
Those institutions & High Wealth investors who bought over 2 million new shares last month at average 68p ( net say 62p after dilution) look out of the money atm but I think they knew what they were doing and I expect this to rerate over next few months when 47p will look a gift horse.
Mine in Barclays and now received details and instructed them to be taken up.....in theory dilution should result in each existing share worth c 7- 8p less, but I can't see this happening - to take up new shares, you have to hold your existing shares until May and so I see more upwards pressure on sp due to limited selling....
That last interview was indicative of someone who has exceeded their sell by date imho. He's clinging on stubbornly and instead should be lining up a successor. The market knows that. Silence might be golden when things all aligned but a falling SP suggests we need a kick up the Jacksie and the BOD won't or can't do that with Bill in such a dominant position?
Looking to buy back in once strategy set out now Minto completed, but not tempted given today's news....Another vanity project with PERE , like AAU, trying to convince us pi's it can reinvent itself as a specialist fund manager, but with none of the checks and balances , to say nowt of corporate governance, you'd expect from a professional set up. Why the fund raise/ bucket shop dilution at such a discount to the sp only a month ago? Nice timing for Gati and presumably his mates, no doubt forward sold in last few weeks knowing they'd be picking them up at windfall 5p prices..... Afraid this stinks.
I know v little about THE SYME business model , nor the technicalities of its functionality nor its various business plans...and I am merely a spectator on the sidelines, taking a passing interest as I both have a friend invested here and am a subscriber to TW *************. But I do know, after a career at Board level a bit about funding, negotiating, forecasting, start ups and that all tells me that there is something either VERY UNLUCKY with this company and its CEO, or this is a basket case built on incompetence at best, or at worse case buikt on LIES and deliberate intent to mislead. Either way for me it's uninvestable- after 20 years investing good and bad in AIM, bad luck never seems to correct itself. No advice intended folks, and maybe one day a more lucky CEO will take over the reins.
Cos huddlestone is a forced seller,? My understanding is that he is in need of cash, large wads of it, primarily because heavily exposed elsewhere. One is HUR I believe. think years back he was also in XEL ( so was I gggrrr...) . AIMHO but woukd explain his impatience here. He is possibly down to zero now, if rateof previous selling has been maintained, PS I too thought CEO's parting gift in that last interview was a message to us: "................................Silence is golden..."
Until one of the 2 Betts leave the BOD, this is uninvestable - production **** ups continue, always someone else's fault ( the weather, ext mining contractor.....) ....being run more like a family-owned business than a transparent enterprise run for benefit of ALL shareholders. Still miles from any dividend years after 1st gold pour. Institutions will avoid until the patriarchy disband.
Thks TD2....v interesting, and imho helpful in beginning to understand future market dynamics for nickel and lithium. If there's one area of technology worth researching it's EV batteries. I gather Cambridge are developing batteries using water (?) And the Dutch have the most advanced and largest battery research facilities in the world. I'm largely ignorant on these matters but at least knowingly ignorant.
If it is a cup & handle forming then the handle is the recent fall back from 9-ish p and looks completed. If this is so, and if you believe in these things as forecasts, we are about to enter another rise...with higher highs and higher lows on pull backs. Pretty much as the charts indicate re moving averages.....of course fundamentals can blow this out of the water but overall I the most likely near term outcome is we are looking at consolidation towards the 9 -10 p mark
It's the strength and standing of the lenders that most impresses me. Some real heavyweights here who have done their due diligence, kicked the tyres, and tested the management team. Debt is keenly priced too and nice to see a slightly larger borrowing facility than expected. All in all a good outcome that should assist with closing the off take and bringing on board that strategic investor. Rome wasn't built in a day.
If they're trying to suppress VWAP then will probably try to hit the closing SP in last 15 minutes today with some chunky selling....I agree, its baffling as to who else would sell in quantity only a few days from expected news....
As the market can absorb those 3 extraordinary large sales with barely a blink in the sp, it bodes well for underlying strength of the recent rise in share price. With activity of an expanded Sprott ( and Yellowcake) buyer of Uranium, feels like a significant rerating of both Uranium and GCL has just begun. Who knows where, but a doubling to $80 spot price could be on the cards within 6 months if utilities think they might otherwise not have sufficient U ?
Fwiw, my experience with credit cttees , banks & boards suggest they will be meeting 3rd week September - August a dead month, papers, cttee reports up to date due diligence issued 2nd week September - with all hopefully signed off therefore by end of next week and market announcements on debt element of funding week commencing Sept 20th. Equity announcement possibly slips into early October but this may be good for p i's as the sp might be solidly into 9 - 10p territory by then. Who knows what new equity will be priced at given the surprise of 7.5p issue when sp had reached 9p plus. My guess is no lower than 8.5p or thereabouts which will see us hopefully well clear 10p by guy fawkes night. As soon as building the mine begins, I think we will attract more punters and see some fireworks. All IMHO & who knows really.