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Hi Michu - just going off the last 2 bear markets which were both over 40%.
Agreed on the mortality rate there will be large variance. South Korea has a fairly young population and quite good testing and have a mortality rate of 0.48%. Well below the 3.4% average quoted so far. 3 of us in my close family have had a virus with temperature and a bit of wheeziness but haven't been tested because it was next to nothing - have we had it? Maybe but we won't be in the denominator for the % calculation.
If we follow Italy's example we know that the economic effect is going to be drastic. Trump may just put the economy first which would be a big help to the world economy - his main priority is a robust stock market come the time of the election so it may not be as bad as 40% as you say.
I'm bearish on corona virus effect on global economy but not as bearish as that Kalan.. many people in developing world will get mild symptoms and will never even be tested .. so mortality rates are way lower than headlines off the back of such I offer .. and the western world will cope far better because it has better medical care.. also spring weather will help as virus season peters out from Spring. Also low O&G prices are a driver of economic growth generally.. that will help the bounce back when it starts (it's already started in china, I offer)
Generally, FTSE not going under 5250 is my guess and DOW not under 17500
AIM O&G might be another story in terms of misery levels granted as a race to the bottom in term of PoO to kill off more expensive and/or debt laden supply may well be truly awful.
I've dumped other oilers today to average down meaningfully here in due course.. my latest plan for what little its worth: small top only in 7's p and incrementally bigger if/as this goes lower. This could go as low as 5p region I now guess.. but I very much hope it doesn't.
A little bit too late isn’t it? Why didn’t they act when it was approaching the 20s?
thanks kalan - will take a look. not paying for ii montly costs anymore!
Off topic well I guess not...
Well oldish news but if these guys don’t get a vaccine Gilead will...
https://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2020/03/01/breakthrough-israeli-scientists-weeks-away-from-coronavirus-vaccine/
They will fast track it as much as possible and once news is out peeps can factor in an end.
Trek
Locking down London and the Stock Market might not be the worst scenario. Won't be able to fall any further for a while
Brave TREK.
Oil and mining sectors down 285 since peak i.e. now in a bear market.
look at Italy - 25% in lockdown. Milan empty. No-one travelling from North to South. Stock market down another 10%.
Still people say this is just temporary - this is THE correction that this tired out bull market needed based on fundamentals.
The world is going into recession - nearly all financial commentators are in denial - waiting for the worst to pass but with fear in their eyes.
It is fairly simple - hospitals and morgues can't cope with the massive increase in business - so the Government has to slow the spread of the disease - it won't affect the final totals but they are spreading out the duration so that they can cope with the rate of infection. This is going to crush demand for EVERYTHING. It will lower the price of everything.
there will be one or two niche investments that will hold value in the headwinds of a global recession - everyone is hoping it is what they hold - only a very few will be right.
Not even in gold myself - unless silver gets above $19 then there will be no bull run of any size in gold IMO.
Car sales in China down 8% - spread that to the world market and that's a big cut off for metal demand - so even palladium and rhodium will see headwinds - cash for me all the way - not bargain time yet IMO - only when everyone is a seller and no-one sees a bargain anywhere will it be time to buy.
I have bought too in an effort to average down.
I was told that an RNS is being worked on and will be published hopefully this week if not next. It aims to alleviate our fears/speculation that something bigger than a negative macro trend is going on here. Apparently the company are worried about the share price and feel the need to clarify their position. Interesting
Am I the only one that bought today? Figuring a bounce on news even to 9p from here would help. I’m hoping that’s it now unless they lock down London!
Trek
I everyone, im racking my brain over this and would really appreciate the help. So with the lack of an operational update and the repayment of the loan, are these two factors in peoples opinion for the downfall since late last year ?
regie72. I use Hargreaves Lansdown - they may not be the rock bottom for cost but they are reasonable and excellent for pensions. You can open straight share investing, ISA and pension and manage them all yourself on line.
been on this morning (couldn't log in when the big falls were happening - they all seem to be tardy at letting you sell when the proverbial has hit the fan) and transferred all the cash from my share account into my ISA account ready for when I go back into the market - it was simple to do and took less than a minute - worth a look.
Surely if the fundamentals are correct, this has to be very much in cheap takeover territory?
That’s my big fear!
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No one will be taking over anyone for a while. Why would you when you'll be able to take over for half the price in 6 months time. No one will be financing much either unless it's massively favourable with a stack of killer warrants attached, that's why I enquired as to whether there is any imminent debt that needs settling or cash required. All oilers are getting killed but oilers with debt will be there to pick up at ridiculous prices soon. Think back to 2009 and you ll get the picture
Still bewildered that SAVP has fallen more than probably any other oily in the past 6 months or so despite it being better protected from the oil fall than most. FTSE hit first target of 6000 as expected (took longer than I thought) - will it go all the way to 4500 for a 40% fall as with the other large pull backs this century?
Hopefully OPEC and Russia and even US included can come to a deal in coming few months to constrain supply.. A few quarters sub $40 Brent would have huge economic and social consequences for many countries around the world.. not least Nigeria, sadly... and- even including its probably well protected revenues - there would I expect be meaningful adverse knock on consequences to SAVP ... sundry other O&G ers globally far more so granted .. especially US shalers of course.. but it will be degrees of awful across the board in a macro price war race to the bottom
Surely if the fundamentals are correct, this has to be very much in cheap takeover territory?
That’s my big fear!
Ps Agadem , you OK?
Surely the company is only obliged to report, if there has been a material change?
can anyone recommend a good online broker that doesn't charge a high monthly holding admin fee and deal costs are good? tia
Sadly think 7p may be on the cards today, i can't see AK putting a note of support out in this market as it will be ineffective.
News will come, when is the question.
Even with Accugas immunity from the current oil price, as per figure 10 of the Numis report, the market still wants to hear it directly from AK.
All I am asking is that AK confirms the cash flow numbers are being paid as per contract terms.
The gas contracts on Daily Contract quantity run to 189.4 mmcf/day.
80% is the take or pay volume ie 151.5 mmcf/day.
Calabar is $3.53 mcf rising to $5.04 mcf to 2024 . Unicem is $5/mcf all years and Ibom is inflationary from $2.18 /mcf.
Gross revenues are $204m with 80% of those take or pay revenues attribute to Savp which are $163m.
The oil revenue (not included) will knock about 5% i believe off Savps expected $104m free cash flow.
There was also a 6% forecast decrease for maintenance in 2020 but this was expected to have negligible effect due to the price increase from 2019 into 2020.
There's been a new gas contract signed 5 weeks ago with the Ifam Power station of 35 mmcf/d which would be about a 20% increase in production and possibly similar new revenue increase kicking in Q2 we were told.
In addition - "Accugas continues to make good progress in relation to gas supply to several other potential new customers and further updates will be provided in due course" and were expected to be at full capacity this year.
Good point, mcb. I clearly need to go to bed!
Now is the time for AK to come out from behind that sofa, and speak positively about the Seven E gas revenue situation. Silence is no longer an option
Maybe the penny will finally drop that over 90% of our income is through fixed priced GAS contracts. This company should be pretty much sheltered from the brent price drop. Andrew Knott deserves much criticism such as his remuneration package, but the ACUGAS deal could prove to be a master stroke in these market conditions.