Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Nooooooo... don't point out the S.P. has been dropping for weeks (actually months) BullorBears not when SOG and Lazarus would have us believe they have been adding for weeks themselves! You couldn't make it up could you?
Why? The company has no money, wait until they announce a placing or how they plan to raise funding.
The SP has been dropping from months, it will continue to drop until the financing terms have been agreed.
Thanks, HBD, That's how I understood it but wasn't sure so didn't comment. So if double-blinded then Tim and John won't know until the data is available?
Accepting you can't use discount to NAV or similar measures as a way of assessing SAR, there must be a way of valuing the opportunity. 3 or 4 years ago, the market cap was c. £200m, so effectively the market was saying there's a 20% chance of SAR being worth £1bn if the trials went well. That feels about right to me - a 1 in 5 chance of striking it rich. I suspect most LTH's invested on a similar basis having assessed the risks. However, despite only positive news in terms of progress with the current trial, the market has now discounted our chances of hitting the big time by 99%. How on earth are fledgling biotech's supposed to thrive (or even survive) in this environment? Where is the support from our Government when we need it?
Hi Potnak - as far as I'm aware both 1a & 1b are double blinded so the doctors handing out the medication don't know if the patient is getting a placebo or the real drug. Only a couple of people at the dispensary will know what they are handing to the doctor. It's only once the trial is complete that the results become unblinded and they know who took what. That way there can be no influence on the patient or doctor i.e. they've given some pills to a patient who then begins to feel unwell but they won't know if it's down to 1801 or some placebo effect until the trial is over.
As far as placebos go, the mind can play many tricks on our body. Studies have shown the colour of a pill has an impact on efficacy e.g. people respond better to red pills over yellow pills and 2 pills must surely be better than 1 pill etc. An injection is perceived to be more potent than a pill and so on. There are also studies that have shown that even when someone knows they are taking a placebo, they feel it has a positive impact.
Cheers SOG but what happens in p1b that blind?
Good morning Potnak.
I am pretty sure that Tim and Co have a good idea how phase 1a is going.
However, they cannot release any info regarding until all date is analysed.
Follow ups on trial volunteers will add some time.
Tim an Co can be confident of good results, that is about as close as you will get in an indication.
Pleased l have added considerably over past week or so.
Regards
I don't know enough about the P1 Study to comment but, I'm not sure Tim can say anything other than topline results. Chances are they won't know how the trial is going\gone until the data is released. for a P1 tox study, no news is good news. For the dosing study, the devil will be in the detail and no one will see that until it's ready to be published. But the fact that the SAD\MAD dosing is continuing should give us hope that P1a is good, how good, who knows?
Thanks Potnak- points well taken.
However I was unaware of the terminology and surely it behoves our CEO to report progress or otherwise to shareholders in understandable layman's language rather than dressing it up in technical jargon which, in my case and probably many others, led to a misunderstanding?
Decided to bite the bullet and top up from proceeds of selling some other dross!! Never bought at such a low price in all the years I’ve held SAR. Reckon news must be imminent and hopefully there will be enough good news to take it up from these ridiculously low levels. Just knowing there will be enough funds in place to get to final results on 1801 1a should boost the price.
*BoD
Call me paranoid, but i reveal my "in" at 10p and the MMs start to let the SP rise a little, thus create a tad of FOMO.
See through the bull5h1t. I'm still waiting for 10p i believe it's coming, followed by an almighty bounce.
Wart you are spot on, that statement about topline results is key. I still strongly believe there's MM games, shorting etc all at play here. They are always one if not three steps ahead
Topline results just mean results reported factually. It doesn't necessarily mean they are good. It's just Tim using the correct terminology.
What are topline results in clinical studies?
Top-Line Data means, with respect to a clinical study, a summary of patient demographic data, data for the primary endpoint, and safety data derived from the unblinded, locked clinical trial database.
My last top up was £528's worth. It is now worth £28 . I daren't say what I was losing before that top up (averaging down). This company just takes and yes I am bitter because i fully hoped this would be good for all concerned and the patients it would help but it has just emptied people's pockets. I would be very wary here now.
Agree Warty - I actually believe our biggest are consists of honest, decent people who haven’t suddenly turned rogue and are out to deliberately screw us all.
Misleading shareholders and the general market would not be in their interests as directors at all. They are personally liable. I think their problem is that they are too honest and blunt.
Yes, the only price that is important is your buy and sell price. It might be difficult to get past the loss of big paper profits but it is a lesson learned for most here. I can rationalise the low and falling SP, as you say, it allows us to increase our holdings for very little outlay. What I can't rationalise is the potential dilution that may be needed. If a reason to sack Parker was needed, this is it. I'm hoping that some immediate non-dilutive funding can be found to steady the ship as it were before looking for proper funding for 1b. They could do this with loans linked to options and warrants, maybe from the board or HNWI or Parker. Or, Owens could earn their keep by tapping up their contacts in the industry. We'd still need funding for 1b but if 1a is good, that we shouldn't have a problem.
....this might be what is driving it today with folk taking a punt and saying it's only a few £hundred/thousand that won't hurt if it goes down and a NLE if it doesn't
"....Board of Directors remains confident that the Company is on course to deliver topline Phase 1a results in Q2 2024."
Hardly a comment that would be made lightly albeit with the caveat about obtaining funding
If only believes that a company that's been operating for 10 years with results expecting to be good, whatever the sp raise might be now, promises a multibag just to 50p, which was low for the sp only a couple of months back.
Fully agree with you Pot, however if the MM's can't fill the orders, the SP will drop (that combined with the shorters) hence where we are today. Stronger buying and we wouldn't be where we are today. The SP is a result of the general market sentiment. People are a little cautious ATM, waiting, hoping. Emotional. The MMs know this and see the patterns. Even companies will withhold news... every RNS that stated "maximising shareholder value" is exactly what it's about. The biggest lows and the largest (relative highs). LTHs positions mean nothing... particularly on AIM
I bought more yesterday and have some funds to buy more this week but maybe we shouldn't help the MM's\RF out? If the MM's can't fill the orders, the liquidity dries up and the only way to bring it back is to drive the SP up. It feels ridiculous even writing this but a 30p SP would see some here doubling their money.
I agree with your sentiments, Trader Matt. A profit is a profit but if the science is good, then anything less than £10 and the shareholders have been robbed and it's another nail in the coffin for AIM.
The latter I expect Pot. But we can hope!
TBH I'd love to see 10p (old 0.2p), where it all began for me many moons ago... because what an opportunity that'd be. It's a sorry time for LTHs because there's been a lot of promising outlook on this company. Whilst 28p (£14) may be out of the question, would anyone have guessed at the old 0.2p years ago, it'd bag a 20 fold plus in a day let alone keep going? I'd love to get in at 10p with a bag full of shares and watch it rocket up on good news. Even if we got anywhere near £1.50, a sensible average for most, (yes you lot on this board revealing to the public your holdings, positions etc, the MMs aren't stupid, this board is a goldmine of data, and sentiment) that's a huge win for new investors and anyone willing to buy in at this price. If news really is around the corner, it's a silly time not to stake a few quid on the potential
Also, the blue SP? Whats all that about. has news leaked of an 11 am RNS? or just MM's raising to entice some sells because they have another RF order to fill?
I think it's pretty obvious that some sort of negotiation is going on. When they published the interim results RNS last week, they said WC 25th March. I don't think they have done that before, it's usually a date with as BA states, with a presentation notification. I was and I think we all were under the impression that we had enough cash to see us to the end of 1a so the wording of the RNS last week was worrying as it implied we didn't even have enough cash to get to the end of 1a. If so, where has that cash gone? The complete radio silence says to me that we will get an answer to the immediate questions this week and that for me is getting to the 1a data readout. If good then we'll get funding, if not good then, well I don't know but I think this is a squeeky bum time that no one here would've predicted 2 years ago.
Tend to agree Aber - the Easter break also minimises the likelihood. Still, it buys more time for genuine progress to be made and reported. Financial update, 737 and 1801 news due soon
The BOD wont want a call with shareholders as they know there will be a lot of bad feelings expressed ... I am only expecting a published release and no later meeting - AIMHO Only