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I kind of agree, perhaps not exactly 20p but the early 20ps. The RF finance is still in play, some selling to come and news needed. The bull run is still potentially around the corner, I'm thinking there's a possibility of a 5x here on news
There's a lot of chat about base prices, where the SP is going and support etc.
Very difficult to pin anything like that down due to the subscription shares being issued on Friday, there's still some RF selling to come. That is the one thing holding back the SP at the moment, when they clear their final tranche, we should see some stabilisation to more realistic levels, possibly likely to coincide with news.
For now GLA and see you in a few months for the Phase 1 RNS
Quite surprised at the rate of return to sensible SP levels. I was predicting circa 30p by the end of the month.... might need to revise that to "end of the week"!
I strongly agree that the receipt of positive news could multi bag the SP.
Just awaiting the next tranche of RF subscriptions to be requested, assuming it will be today/tomorrow/Monday.
Must be another RNS incoming shortly for RF requesting the next bulk or shares. Hopefully chopping another £200K off the bill
*quantity rather than quality
Thanks Mathsprof, the issued share quality and outstanding balance are not aligned, hence we could be further down the path of completion with RF than anticipated. Funny feeling that some of the cash from the WRAP might be used in the coming days to settle up.
GLA
An interesting observation:
RNS 9th April: "the Company expects to settle all balances by the issuance of Subscription Shares prior to the Maturity Date"
RNS 15th April: "the Company expects to settle all balances by the issuance of Subscription Shares or by cash prior to the Maturity Date."
Or by cash? So the change in direction maybe that they're aiming to settle up soon. I think perhaps one more issue to £500K and then a pay off and goodbye. Starting to get a more positive feeling about SAR again, here's hoping by the end of the month RF is settled. Perhaps then we can see a reparation of the SP to somewhere around 30p by May, news in mid may would be lovely and seeing north of £1 by the summer.
Perhaps then end of the year a serious offer which we would need to vote on, hoping one of these big market cap smashing offers materialises.
I'm definitely not sure about the legal requirements for wording in an RNS and the finer details of the AIM rules about distinguishing between warrants and shares. My understanding is that warrants are shares that are to be exercised within a given time frame.
I think we have to issue shares when RF ask for them according tot he RNS last August.
Included in that is a blend of shares and warrants. From my rough understanding, someone will need to check this, 1.6mil of the shares issues go towards paying off the balance (at approx 10p a share) thus £160k removed from the outstanding balance, the other 1.4mil are warrants for RF to do so with at their whim over the next 48 months
The conspiracy theorist in me is seeing signs. MMs holding back share trades and there are possible indicators to put the brakes on while they load up.
Could be another issue of shares to RF later, take another big chunk out of the £800K owed. another 2.9 mill shares at £300k would go well at the moment considering the SP's resilience.
GLA
HBD, I've needed a good chuckle today. I'm with you. I'd buy those b@5t@rd5 out, but I think they have what's coming anyway , considering their uniquely written agreements and ethics. Their downfall might be the very reason they're persistent in demanding shares from SAR and not waiting until 16 months time.... they probably don't have much time left. Their downfall may also be a good cryptic signal that times could be about to change.
Feel your pain, and share it. I probably have a little advantage here with time on my hands (famous last words). The reason I say that (not flippantly i might add) is that I get the impression there are a lot of LTHs who are near or nearing retirement age and this could/should/might be the final hurrah to get over the finishing line. With that in mind, I have also been here (albeit very quietly) since the first big jump. Managed to get it at the old 0.5p when the share was rising from 0.2p and less, then fired up to 4p+ on the day. Sold and made some cash. At the time I was a respective infant, making a fair few hundred pounds, money to clear cards etc. Now further along in life, and many many years later, strangely I still have the faith. Whilst I don't believe in sharing positions, quantities and averages, I will divulge that I have two distinct positions in SAR, one which allows me to momentarily profit from the instability of the SP and another which is indeed long and perhaps longer than most. Lots riding on it, to the tune of 40% of one of my portfolios. I really believe in this share, not only because I'd like to make some life changing money, but for the far more important reason that SAR could genuinely help hundreds of thousands, if not millions of people worldwide with their research. This is an ethical buy as much as it is one for hope of profit. Seeing the SP near destruction was doubly upsetting, hence my positivity that we're hopefully starting to see the tail end of the RF meddling and then onto an SP gradual rise.
Great point HBD, if RF are indeed in a spot of bother, why pump money that way. Let them find their own way.
Just been thinking, perhaps the reason the BOD don't pay off RF is simpler than we all think.
They now have the funds to sort the company through the year, security for the end of Phase 1 and perhaps enough to kick off Phase 2 or at least funds towards that. The share price is inconsequential, they must know it'll bounce back on news, so what's the advantage of burning capital to pay off RF? Let them have their shares and do what they need to, the lower SP will entice new investors. The only advantage I can see to SAR paying off RF is to shut us lot up and stop our impatient whining. I say let it roll and see what happens over the next few months. As for now what an opportunity to buy a load more.
RF shares: 2.9m
If sold forward yesterday at rate of 1.45m quantity sold
Today 500k quantity sold so far...
RF could be all sold up by Friday, then requesting more on Monday
With £800k to go that's 3 more tranches at 2.9m shares or so, we could be seeing the back of RF by the end of April all being well. Yes the SP will flounder at 10p or so, perhaps a steady decline for the next few weeks but as soon as RF Foxtrot Oscar, we should be able to see steady gains on the SP, let alone if that coincides with news at the end of the month GLA
Laz, i had the same thought.
1) The rats have run back to heir nests
2) RF taking their chunks and selling fast
3) MMs remarkably not screwing this down to ATLs (at the moment)
Either news incoming soon and the market is awaiting it.... or MMs going to see how long they can milk this cow
Re-reading the terms of the Equity, RF can at any time request the next tranche of issues once they have exhausted the previous set. I think this is just the next 50% to 65% range of the funds owed to RF. 2.9m taken, remaining 800k owed (after this issue), and this set equates to 300k approx. we're just over halfway through the RF saga.
I'm reading the RNS as profitability in FY2024 (this year) which was not on the balance sheet in previous years. Getting a feeling this will tick up
Looks like some great news! Could be a nice lift in SP today
Certainly some interesting scenarios, but don't RF get issued the the shares at the 5 day VWAP? Which is currently 11.49p?
£800K and the £330K issued Friday means we're probably only halfway through RF's selling debacle. But the upward trend recently does help, particularly as you mention Andy, some of the forward selling could be RF clearing the shares at a good price, because the demand is there.
Big question the next few days is how will this impact the SP? Interesting to see if this share issue to RF was timed for any particular reason.... i.e. they have 16 months to clear the debt, so why the rush? Do RF have the ability to demand the max issue each time they finish a tranche?